We're fucked aren't we.
I'd never thought it all the way through until last night. But I don't see how we make it though this without something on par with the Great Depression.
Right now Microsoft and Amazon have this little bump due to WFH and stockpiling, giving tech workers reason for hope, but that'll start fading soon and they'll go down with everyone else.
It's the whole boiling frog parable really, isn't it.
* Some virus in China: no big deal it's China.
* Some virus here: no big deal it'll blow over.
* Lots of virus here: no big deal we'll WFH for a while.
* "A while" is up and more virus: no big deal we'll keep WFH.
* Unemployment is 6M/wk: no big deal look at AMZN/MSFT.
* Pork processing plant shuts down: no big deal there's other food.
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This should scare the shit out of everyone still living.
Why do we think that in two years, we'll still have enough of a supply chain that vaccine development can continue unimpeded?
People talk about a V-shaped recovery, but I think we're very close to the tipping point. This depends on the existence of expendable pocket money for the public, an existing supply chain, and stable cash flow. All of this will be gone in about two months. If we're stuck with this for two years? There will be no product to buy, nobody to buy it, and no infrastructure to build it. Home values will drop, people will default, and the whole country from NY to SF to Dubuque will look like Detroit of 2008 or worse, cities and suburbs alike, but there won't be a "not-Detroit" of investors to come and fix things this time. Most of us who are young, intelligent tech workers living through a 13-year boom cycle have a hard time understanding this.
Not looking forward to this. The lone bright spot, China (assuming they're able to keep things in check) starts hiring the brightest from around the world, and that's how this empire ends.