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Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

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Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#71

Post by scottlocklin »

ceejayoz wrote: post #65
scottlocklin wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You need to reconcile... No, actually, I don't need to reconcile anything. I'd prefer to stick to the OP assertion. If flu deaths are similar to C19 deaths during mitigation, it is abundantly obvious that we've made a terrible mistake. You seem to want to litigate something. I want to do a t-test. Of course if C19 deaths are 10x what the flu is during mitigation, and overall pneumonia deaths are much higher (aka we'…

> If flu deaths are similar to C19 deaths during mitigation, it is abundantly obvious that we've made a terrible mistake. You're asking for data we won't have yet. As I noted, COVID deaths are only just ramping up; 90% of them in the USA are in the last week or so. There are early indications the lockdowns have impacted flu, as is fairly obvious. Local to me: https://www.rochesterregional.org/news/2020/01/flu-season-…

Well if locking everyone up in their homes doesn't reduce cases of the ordinary flu, we really need a better understanding of how it is transmitted.

Anyway, let's agree that these numbers are worth tracking. I'm sure someone's tracking them!

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#72

Post by whatshisface »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #63
whatshisface wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I guess what I was asking was whether you have any ideas that have any likelihood of being more effective than current approaches. Well, what we're talking about is how to keep civil liberties while also effecting a quarantine. I think if we came up with a solution that was as good as the current solution but that had less risk of giving the government abusable and sticky power, that would satisfy the goal of the d…

> the broader point of "if we put our heads to it we might be able to avoid an expansion in government power while not making any unacceptable sacrifices." And I guess my point is that I admit that possibility, but I consider the likelihood very low.

>but I consider the likelihood very low.

But you just said that the tort scheme would do the same thing in a more inconvenient way! Surely inconvenience is not an unacceptable sacrifice.

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#73

Post by koolba »

ThePowerOfFuet wrote: post #69
koolba wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the right of assembly and the right to bear arms have been repeatedly infringed. For example in CA: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-24/l-a-coun...

No rights are absolute. Your right of free speech famously has limits; "shouting fire in a crowded theatre" is prohibited. Temporarily closing gun shops, like shops for anything else not required for daily life, is absolutely reasonable. If you claim that guns are required for daily life, that says more about your country than any other point here (and not in a good way).

> No rights are absolute. Your right of free speech famously has limits; "shouting fire in a crowded theatre" is prohibited.

Thats a terrible analogy as it’s not a partial limit that’s being applied here. It is an absolute removal. If a citizen is not allowed to create their own firearms or order them by mail, closing local stores is a total elimination of that right.

> Temporarily closing gun shops, like shops for anything else not required for daily life, is absolutely reasonable.

Says you. Your personal opinion of which constitutional rights are required for daily life does not dictate which ones others enjoy.

> If you claim that guns are required for daily life, that says more about your country than any other point here (and not in a good way).

You could make the same facetious statements about the 1st, 4th or 8th amendments as well.

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#74

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

whatshisface wrote: post #72
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the broader point of "if we put our heads to it we might be able to avoid an expansion in government power while not making any unacceptable sacrifices." And I guess my point is that I admit that possibility, but I consider the likelihood very low.

> but I consider the likelihood very low. But you just said that the tort scheme would do the same thing in a more inconvenient way! Surely inconvenience is not an unacceptable sacrifice.

That's not all I said. "You're just using a more convoluted, less effective route to get there. As an added drawback ..." To be very explicit: I think the tort scheme would achieve lower compliance, cause excess deaths, and would also be more expensive and less just in implementation.

And atop all that I don't consider the libertarian ideal to be a goal worthy of pursuit. So yeah. Not a fan.

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#75

Post by whb07 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #52
scottlocklin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looked to me like he was comparing flu deaths now to corona deaths now. If indeed those numbers are comparable or the same, we've probably made a terrible mistake. Maybe looking at total pneumonia deaths for anomalies is the right thing to do?

> If indeed those numbers are comparable or the same Well if you mean now now and not just annual totals or totals over the 2019-2020 flu season, they aren't the same or comparable, Covid-19 is the leading US cause of daily death, flu is way back in the pack.

This is definitely most, certainly not the case. I'll explain to you why:

A = set of top 5 disease killers in the U.S (hypertension, obesity, cancer, diabetes, etc)

B = set of corona deaths in the U.S

The intersection between B and A is over 90% of set B's numbers. So basic counting shows that in order to get the proper amount of deaths you'd have to perform the following calculation of:

A + B - ( intersection of A and B)

Unfortunately most people are counting by adding A+B which results in double counting as person X who died in set B is also in set A.

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#76

Post by ModernMech »

scottlocklin wrote: post #64
ceejayoz wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to reconcile the "no worse than the flu" idea with "collapsed the northern Italian healthcare system". If you're proposing they're similar in impact, you need to explain why their actual real-life impact is not similar. The CDC estimates somewhere between 24k and 63k flu deaths since October. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e... The previous season was estimated at 34,200. https://…

>You need to reconcile... No, actually, I don't need to reconcile anything. I'd prefer to stick to the OP assertion. If flu deaths are similar to C19 deaths during mitigation, it is abundantly obvious that we've made a terrible mistake. You seem to want to litigate something. I want to do a t-test. Of course if C19 deaths are 10x what the flu is during mitigation, and overall pneumonia deaths are much higher (aka we'…

> If flu deaths are similar to C19 deaths during mitigation, it is abundantly obvious that we've made a terrible mistake. You seem to want to litigate something. I want to do a t-test.

Note that the lockdowns are not just to avoid spreading the disease, they are to avoid spreading it so quickly that it overflows the hospital system. The theory of "flattening the curve" is that you keep the peak hospitalization number under hospital capacity but spread the infection out over a longer period of time. The area under the curve (total hospitalizations due to infections) remains the same either way. Although it means at no time will someone needing hospitalization be turned away due to lack of capacity -- resulting in fewer overall deaths.

Put another way, let's agree that the number of flu deaths this season of 24k – 62k and 410k – 740k hospitalizations is acceptable from an economic perspective. We can lose and hospitalize that many people and operate as a society. How would it change if those deaths and infections occurred in the span of a month instead of 5 months?

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#77

Post by mnm1 »

Not having advanced medical equipment or doctors is one way to have a health system that doesn't work. Not hiring a programmer to write you a script to connect two systems during the worst unemployment event in almost a hundred years is another one. As are so many of the other reasons here. We are finding out that our healthcare system really isn't up to par not only because we don't have equipment, but because due to lack of regulations that benefit profit seeking, the system barely works. If only we had some sort of over arching entity that could force all these disparate systems to work together based on a set of rules ... you know, a government and specifically a government that works not one that's constantly being dismantled by idiots who think the corona virus is a hoax. In the end, the crisis always boils down to not having an effective, functioning government and leadership. This would be unacceptable in many places, but the US has extremely low standards in general so it's business as usual.

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#78

Post by dang »

ThePowerOfFuet wrote: post #69
koolba wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the right of assembly and the right to bear arms have been repeatedly infringed. For example in CA: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-24/l-a-coun...

No rights are absolute. Your right of free speech famously has limits; "shouting fire in a crowded theatre" is prohibited. Temporarily closing gun shops, like shops for anything else not required for daily life, is absolutely reasonable. If you claim that guns are required for daily life, that says more about your country than any other point here (and not in a good way).

Please don't go into nationalistic flamebait. It just leads to worse.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs

#79

Post by whatshisface »

krapp wrote: post #62
whatshisface wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I know it's common for Americans to assume everything their government does is a false-flag pretext for a fascist power grab History does not support the most hyperbolic speculations, but it does support the idea that the USG files away at the base of lady liberty every time the public's back is turned. Remember the Patriot Act and 9-11?

It can be true for some cases, but not all cases. Closing businesses, stay at home orders and quarantines are good ideas and, I believe, necessary for the public good. I'm also willing to believe they're temporary measures, if for no other reason than a permanent state of police-enforced quarantine would destroy the country and do no one any good, least of all the government.

Nobody (serious) is suggesting that everything will be permanent. What's being suggested is that several smaller changes made during the crisis, especially the ones involving legislation, will never be un-done.
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