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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#71

Post by bohadi »

galacticaactual wrote: post #3

How a pandemic of this nature was not planned for, war gamed, and drilled until we could gain SOME intuition as to the optimal actions and effects countries should take to avoid economic meltdown while doing the vulnerable population right is beyond me. The U.N. was created to promulgate this kind of cooperation, and here it has utterly failed.

This scenario and similar are apparently wargamed, by some. In fact the prescience shown in link is uncanny, to what effect you may now guess.

[0] https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#72

Post by visava »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

Time to look at out of the box solutions https://www.stephenharrodbuhner.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#73

Post by pmoriarty »

redis_mlc wrote: post #50
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

"What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care."

It's far from pointless.

Flattening the curve means a lot fewer people get sick all at once. That buys time for treatments and vaccines to be developed.

It's also not nearly as overwhelming to the health care system.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#74

Post by claudeganon »

birken wrote: post #56
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

If you just let the virus run its course you would have so many extremely sick people at once that it would overrun the health care systems in every country. Many more people than just COVID patients would die, and the death rate of COVID patients would go way up due to inadequate care. The fallout from letting the virus run its course is way beyond taking the current rates and extrapolating to the entire worldwide p…

Everyone who poses this question can’t seem to fathom that they’re arguing against something that can’t be undone. It’s not lockdown vs. reopening in terms of damage, but a competent, thorough response when this first emerged vs. mitigating the deaths and injuries from not having acted appropriately at the outset.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#75

Post by DennisP »

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

Look at the stock market from 1930 to 1932, and you'll see a series of dramatic upswings, even while the overall trend was steep down.[1] Lots of people lost fortunes trying to jump back in when they saw the market "recovering."

I'm not making any particular prediction for this time. I'm just saying, don't get overconfident just because it's going up lately.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/2484/dow-jones-crash-1929-bear-m...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#76

Post by mrep »

jklein11 wrote: post #61
redis_mlc wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

do you have sources for this >What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases

"The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive. The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived" [0].

[0]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/8261052...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#77

Post by dannyw »

baby wrote: post #15
mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

Markets are up because the Fed has injected about 12 trillion to capital markets. These dollars need to find a place to sit.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#78

Post by slg »

redis_mlc wrote: post #50
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

Flattening the curve isn't just about ventilators. It is about keeping the entire system functioning. The simplest example is testing. How are you going to quarantine carriers if we don't flatten the curve, can't keep up with testing, and have no idea who has the virus?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#79

Post by NomDePlum »

jdc wrote: post #53
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

I can't help but think we could close a lot less shops if everyone wore (even sub-N95) masks

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths.

Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing?

I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#80

Post by pmoriarty »

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

I'd argue that the market was really slow to crash in the first place.

It was obvious for at least a month that the pandemic would have a massive impact on the economy due to China shutting down and the near certainty that it would spread all over the rest of the world and cause massive economic damage and loss of life.

Yet the market kept on trucking until it finally crashed. If it had really priced in all that information, it would have crashed way sooner.

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