71–80 of 317 posts
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It has a very large extortion department.
This is exactly why I'm having a hard time mustering sympathy for the layoffs. If anything, they will use this as a stepping stone to a more ethical career choice. I do still feel for them on a human level though.
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If anyone can "explain" it, they should go get filthy rich. But we can speculate in a semi-educated way. I think my best speculation is that the economy's fall factored in uncertainty about how bad this really is. The sell-off was based on worst case scenarios (given such high uncertainty). Now that uncertainty is going down as we understand it all better, have more data, have plans in place, the economy is recoverin…
Maybe. Personally, I think the median investor, especially the median short term investor, tends to be more optimistic than the rational market hypothesis would argue. Information availability isn't symmetric, and the news sources favored by these people tend to paint rosier pictures of the recovery than seem likely. I mean, one very straightforward interpretation of the headline of this linked article is that Yelp w…
Most of this activity is driven by robotic trades by institutional investors. It's largely quantitative. Whether the quantitative priors are accurate, is debatable.
> Today we will let 1,000 of our colleagues go and furlough approximately 1,100 more, while reducing hours for others. Your department leaders will be in touch this morning to discuss how this affects you individually, and letters with more details and FAQs will follow this afternoon. Honest question - is it normal to announce layoffs publicly before telling the affected employees? I guess I can understand it from a…
For other commenters asking about the workforce: Yelp has an army of salespeople because they have to sell to so many small businesses. What they do is frankly amazing to me. I used to sit on the sales floor sometimes to experience the excitement. It seems like they'd be the most affected, and I hope they fare well. [Source: used to work there in engineering]
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Got an article? CNN is saying almost exactly the opposite: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/deborah-birx-social-... Birx continued, "is how important behavioral change is, and how amazing Americans are at adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes." "That's what's changing the rate of new cases, and that's what will change the rate of mortality going forward," she said.
Been following the guy from the Big Short, Michael Burry, who has been going deep in the data and models, and trying to raise awareness. He tweeted today how Fauci and the mainstream media glossed over how the models already took into account the interventions: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1248244146571116545
There had to be tons of uncertainty in a) how well people comply with the guidelines and b) how effective that compliance is. It certainly doesn't seem crazy to me more data would lead to revised values for those factors.
They could be more effective than originally expected. It could also just narrow the prediction interval--I'd bet that a lot of the "millions dead" stuff is reporting the high end, rather than the most likely outcome.
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The model that was down revised already took into account the interventions
Got an article? CNN is saying almost exactly the opposite: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/deborah-birx-social-... Birx continued, "is how important behavioral change is, and how amazing Americans are at adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes." "That's what's changing the rate of new cases, and that's what will change the rate of mortality going forward," she said.
0: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predict...
> Today we will let 1,000 of our colleagues go and furlough approximately 1,100 more, while reducing hours for others. Your department leaders will be in touch this morning to discuss how this affects you individually, and letters with more details and FAQs will follow this afternoon. Honest question - is it normal to announce layoffs publicly before telling the affected employees? I guess I can understand it from a…
Off topic: Can anyone explain why the dow jones is going up? The dow was LOWER Jan 1st 2019. I feel we are worse off than Jan 1st 2019.
If anyone can "explain" it, they should go get filthy rich. But we can speculate in a semi-educated way. I think my best speculation is that the economy's fall factored in uncertainty about how bad this really is. The sell-off was based on worst case scenarios (given such high uncertainty). Now that uncertainty is going down as we understand it all better, have more data, have plans in place, the economy is recoverin…
I know this is a very tired topic, but does anyone have any good blog posts or articles about "what exactly is it that you all do?" Yelp having 6000 employees. I'm not surprised, I'm not mad. I just want to understand.
Yelp's engineering isn't likely much more than ~150 people (I worked there ~2 years ago, maybe has grown since then but honestly, given their revenue situation even then, likely not by much). The mix there is just like most companies; you've got dedicated teams for each of their apps (which includes Android, iOS, web, business-facing, etc), you've got API teams, back office teams working on moving data around and bus…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Got an article? CNN is saying almost exactly the opposite: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/deborah-birx-social-... Birx continued, "is how important behavioral change is, and how amazing Americans are at adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes." "That's what's changing the rate of new cases, and that's what will change the rate of mortality going forward," she said.
Did you miss this around a week ago [0]? Birx said ~200K deaths if we did everything "perfectly." We were well into the lockdown at that point. 0: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predict...
If you kept the model exactly the same, you'd nevertheless get tighter and tighter estimates (i.e., reduced uncertainty and a lower upper bound) as more data comes in. This is just how statistics works.
Moreover, we're presumably learning stuff as we go (e.g., putting patients prone seems to work better than on their backs), so the survival rate itself is (hopefully) not stationary.
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Maybe. Personally, I think the median investor, especially the median short term investor, tends to be more optimistic than the rational market hypothesis would argue. Information availability isn't symmetric, and the news sources favored by these people tend to paint rosier pictures of the recovery than seem likely. I mean, one very straightforward interpretation of the headline of this linked article is that Yelp w…
> Right now the immediate job losses are all in the service sector and small employers, and those jobs are basically invisible to your typical trader bro. Most of this activity is driven by robotic trades by institutional investors. It's largely quantitative. Whether the quantitative priors are accurate, is debatable.
I'm not in the industry, but I have to believe the quants are doing what all of us are: they're throwing out the models, rewriting stuff where possible, but basically just guessing like the rest of us. And that process is a victim of their own subjectivity. And this is not just a demographic well-positioned to have a good, objective understanding of epidemiology.
Basically that's just a long winded way to say: wall street isn't looking at this correctly and is going to be surprised when quarterly results don't show the recovery they're expecting.