This is your brain on a crashing stock market • Hacker News Board

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#71

Post by ruste » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:12 PM UTC

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #60

ruste wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, really though, what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? It's one thing to trade on the knowledge of a bill or piece of legislation that you're voting on, especially if you're a deciding vote, but unless I'm misunderstanding that didn't happen here. It doesn't seem like they had any information that wasn't public knowledge at that point. The whole economy was just slow to…

>what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? Both classified and top secret information. For example, changes to China's production, mobilization, expenditure (sale of stocks, debts, etc...), changes to net imports/decreases in net exports, satellite imagery, State Dept/CIA field officers analysis/reports, etc...

Fair point if true, but without a source it sounds like speculation

I'd still say that by the end of january, there was absolutely plenty of reason to sell off stock. A reasonable person absolutely would have made that decision based on information that was already public.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#72

Post by K2L8M11N2 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:43 PM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #7

No access to article, but an entire generation of money managers have grown up with the Everything Bubble starting in 2009, fueled by Fed largesse. They've never even seen a bear market, let alone a financial panic. Most have completely ignored the alarming rise in valuations and market distortions, engaging in extremely risky behavior for years on end.

https://archive.is/Gluq8

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#73

Post by robodale » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:53 PM UTC

rubidium wrote: post #39

spking wrote: post #5

Lately I've been thinking about all of the "F.I.R.E." and "Boglehead" blogs and forums that have proliferated over the past 5-10 years. What percentage of those people are panicking over their plunging index funds vs. those who are ignoring the day-to-day chaos?

I follow boglehead strategy. I’m riding this down and will ride it up. It’s an interesting ride but I’m not going to try and time anything. Still investing 70/30 s&p and bonds every 2 weeks. I’ve got lots of time left though (age 35). Time will tell if it was the right call!

I'm right there with you (although I'm 46). I'm doing regular buys into S&P, a little bonds, and even a few blue chip + high dividend individual stocks that have been beat down by the crash. The money I already had in stocks and stock market funds...I'm leaving that alone. Those will come back over time, and I'll have all the extra that I bought during the crash and recovery at discounted prices.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#74

Post by twiceaday » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 11:57 PM UTC

dbsights wrote: post #49

dmoy wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even before this thing, there were a number of fire blogs that weren't super honest about the realism of their numbers. I can only imagine that there's more who are facing a ride awakening right now. For someone just following a boglehead index whatever, it should just be business as usual. Treat it as any other crash. That is, do nothing except maybe rebalance stock/bond ratio to match once or twice a year.

Except stocks and bonds are correlated now. So that strategy just, doesn't work any more

Except correlation is irrelevant to the strategy when one asset is an order of magnitude more volatile than the other.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#75

Post by twiceaday » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 11:58 PM UTC

joshgachnang wrote: post #8

spking wrote: post #5

Lately I've been thinking about all of the "F.I.R.E." and "Boglehead" blogs and forums that have proliferated over the past 5-10 years. What percentage of those people are panicking over their plunging index funds vs. those who are ignoring the day-to-day chaos?

The reddit FIRE subreddit has been surprisingly calm. But I also expect the people really panicking aren't posting.

I bet you its calm because only the calm investors frequent that site. It's too boring for everybody else.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#76

Post by RickJWagner » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

rubidium wrote: post #39

spking wrote: post #5

Lately I've been thinking about all of the "F.I.R.E." and "Boglehead" blogs and forums that have proliferated over the past 5-10 years. What percentage of those people are panicking over their plunging index funds vs. those who are ignoring the day-to-day chaos?

I follow boglehead strategy. I’m riding this down and will ride it up. It’s an interesting ride but I’m not going to try and time anything. Still investing 70/30 s&p and bonds every 2 weeks. I’ve got lots of time left though (age 35). Time will tell if it was the right call!

Great strategy. I think Bogleheads is the single best resource for finances on the web.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#77

Post by throwaway_Bees » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 12:39 PM UTC

ruste wrote: post #71

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? Both classified and top secret information. For example, changes to China's production, mobilization, expenditure (sale of stocks, debts, etc...), changes to net imports/decreases in net exports, satellite imagery, State Dept/CIA field officers analysis/reports, etc...

Fair point if true, but without a source it sounds like speculation I'd still say that by the end of january, there was absolutely plenty of reason to sell off stock. A reasonable person absolutely would have made that decision based on information that was already public.

>A reasonable person absolutely would have made that decision based on information that was already public.

The stock was sold immediately after a coronavirus briefing, not just some stock, his entire net worth.

Maybe it is reasonable to have sold your entire net worth based solely on the available public news, but then why not well before or well after the briefing and instead right after the briefing? Why tip of your wealth constituents at a $10,000/plate fundraiser while simultaneously maintaining a different political position publicly?