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'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

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Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#71

Post by numpad0 »

enchiridion wrote: post #60
notatoad wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting multiple people on one ventilator requires matching lung capacities, it seems like you can get away with 2-4 people on a ventilator if you really need to and have enough selection of patients to pick matching ones, but more than that wouldn't be feasible. (I'm not a doctor and my only source of knowledge on this is other hacker news comments)

I think that algorithms/ML people will have something to offer here. This essentially changes triage into a hard optimization problem. IANAD, but it's not just a problem of matching people in the current pool. You also have to plan for incoming patients. Having the parameters of the ventilator not perfectly match the patient likely affects the probability of survival in a smooth way (with in some bounds). So now the…

okay so how long does it take to certify that and how different is it going to be compared to just have General Motors produce under license on existing designs

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#72

Post by cm2187 »

tcbawo wrote: post #30

If you read enough news and Twitter, you will find some really heartbreaking descriptions of the folks on ventilators. For most, this is a Hail Mary attempt with only 50% survival rate. Many will have significant lung damage if they survive. We need more ventilators to be sure. But we desperately need to find ways to halt the progression of runaway lung inflammation that leads to needing a ventilator. Edit: this deve…

Are you referring to early testing for the virus, ie to take care of these patients well before they show up at hospitals with respiratory problems?

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#73

Post by bamboozled »

jamesrcole wrote: post #69
bamboozled wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to say the same, there seems to be thread after thread about ventilators, but are they a golden ticket to good health ?

> are they a golden ticket to good health ? I don't think anyone views them quite as starkly as that.

I think many people do as that is why there is so much focus on them.

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#74

Post by jmnicolas »

JohnBooty wrote: post #38

From the article: "We're talking about a device that we want to have available in the worst case conditions and strangely enough, COVID-19 is not the worst case envisioned," he said. Made me think. Perhaps in 3, or 5, or 20 years.... Maybe we'll be thankful that COVID-19 was sort of a "training wheels" pandemic... something that helped to prepare us for the even worse pandemics that are sure to follow. Deaths due to…

> for the even worse pandemics that are sure to follow

This is the first world pandemic in a hundred year, why should it become common ?

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#75

Post by rocqua »

bamboozled wrote: post #73
jamesrcole wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> are they a golden ticket to good health ? I don't think anyone views them quite as starkly as that.

I think many people do as that is why there is so much focus on them.

People are hearing about Italy running out of ventilators and choosing which patients to save. Since we don't want that scenario we are looking to have enough ventilators.

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#76

Post by mike_d »

bamboozled wrote: post #59
tcbawo wrote: post #30

If you read enough news and Twitter, you will find some really heartbreaking descriptions of the folks on ventilators. For most, this is a Hail Mary attempt with only 50% survival rate. Many will have significant lung damage if they survive. We need more ventilators to be sure. But we desperately need to find ways to halt the progression of runaway lung inflammation that leads to needing a ventilator. Edit: this deve…

I was going to say the same, there seems to be thread after thread about ventilators, but are they a golden ticket to good health ?

> but are they a golden ticket to good health

No, building a ventilator is like building an engine because you need to go to the store - you're missing so much of the solution to the problem. I've also posted before [1] on why they are a terrible idea to waste time on "designing".

That said, ventilators I believe are already a solved problem for COVID. We have tens of thousands in the strategic stockpile, and production capacity is being ramped up hopefully to meet demand. This is exactly how these stockpiles were intended to work.

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22581652

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#77

Post by ashwoods »

jmnicolas wrote: post #74
JohnBooty wrote: post #38

From the article: "We're talking about a device that we want to have available in the worst case conditions and strangely enough, COVID-19 is not the worst case envisioned," he said. Made me think. Perhaps in 3, or 5, or 20 years.... Maybe we'll be thankful that COVID-19 was sort of a "training wheels" pandemic... something that helped to prepare us for the even worse pandemics that are sure to follow. Deaths due to…

> for the even worse pandemics that are sure to follow This is the first world pandemic in a hundred year, why should it become common ?

I think Climate change, population growth, travel, antimicrobial resistance are all good candidates in increasing the risk of this happening more often.

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#78

Post by selimthegrim »

war1025 wrote: post #41
pmoleri wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting, so a little improvement there may lead to less ICU beds and sorter overall time at the hospital. Wonder if that's possible.

My understanding is that's the hope for Chloroquine and the other drugs being rolled out en-masse this week. They have shown enough promise by various limited trials that we are rolling them out nation-wide to see if they actually do help reduce the severity of the virus. If they do, then less hospitalization, and less ICU / ventilator needs. If Chloroquine doesn't end up working, basically we need to find something…

There are enough people with fatty liver, etc that chloroquine can’t be a magic bullet

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#79

Post by dredmorbius »

asdfman123 wrote: post #52
JohnBooty wrote: post #38

From the article: "We're talking about a device that we want to have available in the worst case conditions and strangely enough, COVID-19 is not the worst case envisioned," he said. Made me think. Perhaps in 3, or 5, or 20 years.... Maybe we'll be thankful that COVID-19 was sort of a "training wheels" pandemic... something that helped to prepare us for the even worse pandemics that are sure to follow. Deaths due to…

Well, it's so bad because it's generally so mild. More severe illnesses were able to be contained because they made people very ill before they got infectious. No one goes to work with a mild case of Ebola.

A mild-onset-long-latency-ultimately-debilitating disease with high transmissibility might be a worst case. It could spread widely, evade detection, and not trigger immediate concern.

HIV/AIDS, several hepatitis variants, and tuberculosis approach thiS, as might syphilis in earlier times.

Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome explores the notion that new diseases don't simply emerge, but co-evolve with their host populations and environments. The implications are disturbing.

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/how-the-environment-topp...

Re: 'Pandemic ventilator' could offer solution in potential 'worst case' scenario

#80

Post by dredmorbius »

ars wrote: post #57
thornjm wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Med student here - so I know some of the theory only. The most relevant "law" is Fick's Law of Diffusion ( https://d2jmvrsizmvf4x.cloudfront.net/CTU792sKR2evT2ezizQp_f... ). Doctors can increase diffusion by increasing the partial pressure of oxygen. In a diffuse infection a patient begins to lose both lung area (due to shunting) and the thickness of the diffusion barrier increases (due to inflammation). To help over…

Could we build a huge hyperbaric building and place all the patients in there? Would that accomplish the same goal as a ventilator?

There's both partial pressure (O2 concentration and overall atmospheric pressure) and repiratory function. Forced-air respirators (most current models) and iron lungs (operating with partial vacuum) both address this mechanism.
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