I flown many long haul flights. The first time I heard Musk propose using rockets for international travel I thought it was insane. I still do. But if they are accident free for the next 10 years; would I then? Probably - if they could manage to keep my trip under ~3Gs.
I think we have some data already on the probability of accidents - I believe I read that a SpaceX rocket failed to land properly after something like 50 successes...but it was a "soft" landing in the water? NASA lost 2 shuttles out of about 135 flights... So if I was going to make a ballpark estimate without further information, I'd say 98% of the time you should get there safely...and that's better than the coronav…
The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
71–80 of 97 posts
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Regarding Concorde and from a customer's business perspective, going west (from Paris or London to NYC) made sense as you'd pretty much land before you took off (in local time). So you'd gain time. For instance you'd leave Paris at 10:30am and you'd land at JFK at 8:25am or so. But on the way back, you'd take-off from JFK at 8am to land at 5:45pm... To/From London would be 10:30am/09:25am and 8:30am/17:25pm. Bottom l…
> That's why Concorde was often carrying more passengers on the way west than on the way back: people would choose to get a first class overnight flight... So in a fully realized 1960ies space age utopia you'd have a fleet of supersonics circling the planet hub to hub slightly ahead of the dawn line and a fleet of saloon cruisers going the opposite direction. Instead we got mobile internet.
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
The climate does not care how many people caused the co2 emissions.
The climate system itself doesn't, but the total carbon budget has to be allocated to and split between 7 billion people one way or another. What is a fair split? Of course, if you want to keep flying at 800 km/h around the globe AND get power for your home's computers and 4k TV, you will have to advocate for cutting electricity AND blocking air transport of some other people until their coal plants are powered with…
And what about the billions extra that the developing world is predicted to add to global population?
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#74In my opinion it is disingenuous to call any supersonic aircraft sustainable. Independently of any clever aerodynamic design to moderate the drag coefficient, aerodynamic drag always increases like the velocity squared. Doubling the speed will mean applying 4x the force for 1/2 the time, so all propulsive efficiencies being equal, you will expend twice the fuel to go the same distance - at an absolute minimum. In rea…
> But x2 fuel consumption is a hard lower bound. Can't you gain a bit of that back by flying higher than a subsonic design could?
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#75Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#76In my opinion it is disingenuous to call any supersonic aircraft sustainable. Independently of any clever aerodynamic design to moderate the drag coefficient, aerodynamic drag always increases like the velocity squared. Doubling the speed will mean applying 4x the force for 1/2 the time, so all propulsive efficiencies being equal, you will expend twice the fuel to go the same distance - at an absolute minimum. In rea…
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#77In my opinion it is disingenuous to call any supersonic aircraft sustainable. Independently of any clever aerodynamic design to moderate the drag coefficient, aerodynamic drag always increases like the velocity squared. Doubling the speed will mean applying 4x the force for 1/2 the time, so all propulsive efficiencies being equal, you will expend twice the fuel to go the same distance - at an absolute minimum. In rea…
In theory we could use renewable energy sources to manufacture synthetic jet fuel in a carbon neutral loop. It would be more expensive, but sustainable. Hopefully costs will come down enough to make this economically viable.
We do know many chemical reactions that create heat. But none of them can do so as efficiently as high density carbon based fuels. And those that do come close still emit noxious molecules into the atmosphere.
At it's core, high density carbon - fossil - fuels have an incredibly high potential energy delta. A gallon of jet fuel packs a huge amount of punch. Per the law of conservation of energy: that punch must come from somewhere. It's literally sunlight which was converted into carbon form through biochemistry. Tectonic activity compressed those carbon molecules into an extremely dense form.
Incredible amounts of energy have gone into that natural process which spans eons, and no synthetic process can hope to recreate that in an economically viable manner. The latter meaning: production here and now, in enough volume at an affordable price.
So, any alternative is competing with an energy store or sink (it's not really a source since it doesn't create anything!) which is extremely portable and yields a high potential.
Moreover, since the invention of flight, only 2 main modes of active propulsion have emerged: a gas-based exhaust (jet engine) or propeller based.
Going electric means ditching the jet engine. But then you end up with a less efficient propeller based plane. The main reason why commercial airlines ditched propeller based planes for jet engines is because the latter can efficiently keep a large load (people / cargo) in the air.
Batteries don't pack the amount of energy needed to go long-distance, plus their weight makes battery-based flight not really a viable option. Plus, that's just shifting the problem: the energy still needs to come from somewhere.
Solar array based flight has potential, but solar cells aren't anywhere near efficient enough yet. Current solutions combine solar-based propellers with gliding, which result in large span widths. Whereas they are nowhere close to being able to lift the load of a 767.
The U.S. even invested and developed nuclear jet engines. No joke! Look up Project Pluto: a nuclear based ram jet engine. The idea being that nuclear power would rapidly heat air. They even build a bomber (NB-36H) that carried a nuclear engine in hopes of one day hooking that up to a jet engine. Kennedy cancelled that program because he believed that it was all just too provocative in a Cold War era.
So, the strategy on the table is finding ways to make the combustion process itself (a) more efficient (b) less wasteful. It's a delicate balance and it's by definition a limited balance. Inevitably, the gains will get smaller and smaller until it's not economically viable anymore to keep researching them.
To my mind, I feel we're already past the largest gains that we could make in terms of fine-tuning the technology. And to add insult to injury, the gains that still can be made are always offset by the increasing demand of more/cheaper flights / destinations.
The hard reality is that flying should be far more expensive to even remotely approximate the impact on the atmosphere. The other option is that everyone should be able take a plane like they take a bus (democratization), and accepting the downsides, even when those contribute to our own demise.
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
The climate system itself doesn't, but the total carbon budget has to be allocated to and split between 7 billion people one way or another. What is a fair split? Of course, if you want to keep flying at 800 km/h around the globe AND get power for your home's computers and 4k TV, you will have to advocate for cutting electricity AND blocking air transport of some other people until their coal plants are powered with…
> fair split And what about the billions extra that the developing world is predicted to add to global population?
First the ship has already sailed for most of Asia, where the fertility rate is already below 2 or near 2, and the billions extra are just from people getting older. China's population for instance is already expected to decrease from 2030-2035. Asking from these countries to reduce their population is equivalent to asking them to reduce their life expectancy.
In central Africa, the fertility rate is still very high, indeed. But now, remember we are talking about splitting carbon emissions? They already don't emit any carbon. Reducing the fertility rate would still be a good idea, for other reasons (they will be the most impacted by climate change-related disasters for instance).
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Almost the entirety of emissions are made up of 5% when you decompose by sector. There is no silver bullet for reducing your carbon footprint. You should lower emissions for all industries at the same time.
This is a very important idea. On a global scale this idea has been codified as "climate stabilzation wedges": https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2010/11/16/stabilizatio... Each "wedge" is one method of reducing net CO2 output by 1 gigaton/year by 2054. Each wedge is a major economic and technological undertaking. Current estimates are that 13 wedges would be needed to limit CO2 to below 500 ppm. We have currently…
Coal is 25% of carbon emissions. We could have reduced this 2 decades ago. Instead we’re quibbling over 2.5% of emissions.
Re: The Race to Build the First Sustainable Supersonic Jet
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
> fair split And what about the billions extra that the developing world is predicted to add to global population?
This is a reasonable question to ask, although it's also a terribly wrong assumption. First the ship has already sailed for most of Asia, where the fertility rate is already below 2 or near 2, and the billions extra are just from people getting older. China's population for instance is already expected to decrease from 2030-2035. Asking from these countries to reduce their population is equivalent to asking them to r…
If 100 million people fly and contribute 2.5% of emissions, and 7 billion people contribute 25% of the omissions are using coal generated electricity, which probably should you solve?