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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#71

Post by wcarron »

stellar678 wrote: post #60
slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market. If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#72

Post by tempsy »

manmal wrote: post #54
tempsy wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No... I wouldn't consider $500 in capital losses an "equally insane amount"...

I thought that you can only have such high leverage if you bought super meta products that expose risk, meaning you borrow money for that bet and which you‘d have to pay back if the hoped-for increase doesn’t come.

not with buying options - your max loss is just what you buy it for.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#73

Post by nordsieck »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #22
new_realist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a deteriorating margin mix; discounts to move metal.

I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. It's insane (ludicrous?)!

> I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months.

This is just my opinion:

The way people were valuing Tesla is a massively valuable stock with a high potential of blowing up.

From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability. It's not a huge increase in revenue, but it is a big decrease in the chance of bankruptcy. Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down.

The bull case (robo-taxis, etc.) is still there, but the chance of Tesla going bankrupt is much lower than 1 year ago, so the stock has shot up.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#74

Post by damon_c »

new_realist wrote: post #8
dgritsko wrote: post #2

Model Y production ramp started in January, ahead of schedule. Deliveries expected to start before the end of Q1. Exciting stuff!

The Y will mostly cannibalize 3 sales, but will be good for a few quarters’ pop.

It will ~cannibalize~ eat Toyota Rav 4 and Ford Escape sales as well.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#75

Post by xkjkls »

Animats wrote: post #33
aguyfromnb wrote: post #4

Year-over-year revenue flat, year-over-year GAAP income down 25% on 20k more units delivered. Hard to understand...

Tesla is at breakeven. Marginally profitable for 2019, but R&D was cut by more than the difference between last year's loss and this year's profit. Still $26 billion in long term debt, up a bit from last year. Not clear on the terms on that. They had to agree to some awful terms about two years ago, but dodged the bullet on some of those. Read the numbers on page 21-22 first, of course.

They weren't profitable in 2019 though.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#77

Post by xkjkls »

_ea1k wrote: post #70
Animats wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is at breakeven. Marginally profitable for 2019, but R&D was cut by more than the difference between last year's loss and this year's profit. Still $26 billion in long term debt, up a bit from last year. Not clear on the terms on that. They had to agree to some awful terms about two years ago, but dodged the bullet on some of those. Read the numbers on page 21-22 first, of course.

R&D was at $356 million in Q4 18 and $345 million in Q4 19. For the year, it moved from 1.4 billion in 18 to just over 1.3 billion in 19. I don't see how these minor differences were a major factor.

R&D hasn't been up to depreciation for a year.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#78

Post by woodpanel »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #4

Year-over-year revenue flat, year-over-year GAAP income down 25% on 20k more units delivered. Hard to understand...

As a TSLA ahareholder I'm enjoying this ride but am honestly equally puzzled. The numbers are not good. On a related note: FB has been profitable for years, is growing earnings each year by more than 20% and just beat wall street expectations, which wall street rewards with -6% on after-markets trading. Huh?!

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#79

Post by _ea1k »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #39
toomuchtodo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Everyone else is tapped out, while there’s still a whole lot of people left on Earth who’ll buy Tesla products (and you’ll notice Tesla keeps changing where the production firehose is pointed based on local incentives maximizing sales). Heck, Fiat has to hand over almost $2B to Tesla just to be permitted to sell cars in Europe because they have litt…

> They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Do you have data for this? Tesla had, essentially zero growth in the US in 2019, which is where it sells half of its cars. There are many companies that had higher growth than that, including Volvo, which grew 10% in the US. LandRover sold 125k units in the US in 2019, which is far more than the Model S + X (its competitors). So, I'm not sure wher…

Tesla delivered ~250k cars in 2018 and ~360k cars in 2019. In the 4th quarter, they had a run rate of >400k, and it is expected that 2020 will produce at least 500k. I'm purely focused on why people see it as a growth story, despite some numbers implying otherwise.

Its a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the industry, so I wouldn't expect it to be possible to tease out the impact on other manufacturers in a reliable way.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#80

Post by m0zg »

xkjkls wrote: post #64
m0zg wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a while there it seemed like Musk would die from stress. He just looked like he's hanging on by a thread, which he probably was. He seems far more relaxed now - if I were an investor (I'm not - the company metrics are completely detached from its valuation), I'd consider that to be a good sign.

I don't think investment thesis based on the body language of the CEO are great ways to place your money.

Given that if this particular CEO were to, like, physically die (or even just throw in the towel) _Tesla_ would immediately die, I challenge this view of the situation. Even in its current, more stable state, this is a good signal that things are going well - this is not something most people can fake, certainly not people "on the spectrum" like Elon.
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