71–80 of 146 posts
For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/
Why Infected and Cured markers don't follow the colors of the legend?
Given the distribution in China, it looks like it is not going to be contained in Wuhan, even with a quarantine.
Yeah. I mean as a Plague, Inc. player I have to give kudos to this virus. Having the outbreak shortly before the spring festival is genius, the travel ban for Wuhan came so late that many people already traveled to all over the country to meet their families, greatly helping the spread. I'm staying inside for now...
oh, and this, a BSL-4 lab: https://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature.2017.2148...
[0] - https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377
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From what I've read so far, it seems that hosts can infect healthy people 1-2 weeks before first symptoms. Something missing though is how long after the infection does the host become active in spreading the virus.
China has stated that they think it can be contagious before symptoms. The US has stated as of yesterday (Jan 27) that there is no evidence for that yet.
IIRC, the US hasn't seen the evidence for that yet, but they're also complaining that China's not sharing data with them. The CDC is getting its info from China from press briefings like everyone else.
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Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses (metapneumovirus, paraflu, influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, etc, etc ... and many of these have multiple subtypes which can be concurrently circulating). In other words, you’re noticing common symptoms not necessarily the same virus.
> Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses And not just that. I have a septum deviation, so I basically have a runny nose all winter long, even though, most of the time, no viruses are involved.
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It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.
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It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
This is incorrect. If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you. 50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.
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Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.
Um.. I had to enable scripts from jsdelivr.net to get past a blank screen?
Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…
Can we naïvely extrapolate that we expect ~4,000 casualties from ~190,000 infections?
I'm not good at understanding numbers, but I'm sure someone here can chime in with a better way to read this.