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Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

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Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#71

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

jodrellblank wrote: post #22
michalu wrote: post #11

That's to be expected. He was ousted from the company, has no control now so there's little reason why he should be bullish on a stock run by other people. Plus, the future isn't so clear and the markets are at all time highs and he has other company that may require liquidity in the coming years. Better be in cash.

the markets are at all time highs Isn't the world economy built on the idea that markets will always go up? Every year should be an all time high, otherwise we're in recession which is (apparently) tragedy to be avoided at all costs, no?

It's not just that it's at all time highs. PE ratios are also at all time highs: that's the Price to earnings ratio. There's a number of indicators right now that are at all time highs like the Warren buffet ratio (GDP/earnings), all pointing saying this market is really expensive.

This is the most hated bull market ever. None of the experts are buying heavily into this market (it's all stock buybacks that's driving this market up).

So, you can see why everyone is uneasy about these extremely high PE ratios.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#72

Post by throwaway2048 »

duxup wrote: post #27

My questions about the viability of Uber aside, I stick to the story I've heard repeated in many forms "executives sell shares for any number of reasons, but only buy for one reason". Accordingly I don't put much meaning behind stories about an executive selling.

Or they buy to convince you to buy.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#73

Post by rootusrootus »

pc86 wrote: post #53
at-fates-hands wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would also add the state of the market right now is favorable for sellers. Might as well strike when the market is hot and people will gobble his stocks up without any issues. Considering an impending recession, it just makes sense he would dump these now.

I've been hearing about this impending recession for the better part of a decade now, is this just something people repeat so that when there is an inevitable downturn they can say "look I was right!"?

Some people will always be predicting a recession, sure. But the yield curve inversion a month or so ago is an indicator that a substantial number of people agree on. But IIRC it reversed again after inverting.

Certainly in raw numbers the market is in territory that is, while not unprecedented, associated with a couple previous rather significant collapses. It's safe to say a recession will happen but difficult to say exactly when.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#75

Post by ineedasername »

ikeboy wrote: post #43
jodrellblank wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the markets are at all time highs Isn't the world economy built on the idea that markets will always go up? Every year should be an all time high, otherwise we're in recession which is (apparently) tragedy to be avoided at all costs, no?

No. GDP should always be rising. Markets not necessarily so. 1987 saw a massive market crash with no recession.

If GDP is rising, that should mean output, and therefore sales, and therefore value/marketcap should generally be higher as well. Sure, they don't have to, there are scenarios where they won't, but the two should still be closely correlated over any medium term or longer time span.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#76

Post by rootusrootus »

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #71
jodrellblank wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the markets are at all time highs Isn't the world economy built on the idea that markets will always go up? Every year should be an all time high, otherwise we're in recession which is (apparently) tragedy to be avoided at all costs, no?

It's not just that it's at all time highs. PE ratios are also at all time highs: that's the Price to earnings ratio. There's a number of indicators right now that are at all time highs like the Warren buffet ratio (GDP/earnings), all pointing saying this market is really expensive. This is the most hated bull market ever. None of the experts are buying heavily into this market (it's all stock buybacks that's driving…

Since you mention Warren Buffet, I will say that what makes me most nervous about the market is that collectively everyone seems to be concluding that it's overheated. By the time the hordes figure it out, it's already happened.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#77

Post by 6gvONxR4sf7o »

fastball wrote: post #12
gwd wrote: post #6

From TFA: > The 43-year-old’s remaining stake in the ride-hailing company now constitutes about a fifth of his $3 billion fortune, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, down from about 75% before the lockup. To be fair, if I had 75% of my net worth in a single asset, I'd also try to diversify. My wife and I both have lots of stock in the companies we work for, due to RSUs and employee stock purchase programs…

Although you make a good point about general portfolio diversification, the difference between a "normal" employee and a co-founder is fairly large in this instance. Co-founders are supposed to have confidence in the business they built - if they don't, why should other investors?

That doesn't make any sense. You can be more confident in one asset than another, yet you should still diversify. In investing, you don't look for that one asset you're most confident in and put all your money into it. If I were a founder, I'd try to convince you to invest in my company, but I wouldn't try to convince you to put all of your money into it. Not putting all of his assets into uber doesn't mean other investors shouldn't put any of their assets into it. After all, it's still 20% of his portfolio, much higher than most of the shareholders, I'd bet.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#78

Post by stevehawk »

mrosett wrote: post #52
at-fates-hands wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would also add the state of the market right now is favorable for sellers. Might as well strike when the market is hot and people will gobble his stocks up without any issues. Considering an impending recession, it just makes sense he would dump these now.

There's not a whole lot of evidence for an impending recession.

In the US there is a significant downturn in a handful of industries that are the first to decline in a recession. For instance, RV/ camper sales are in a post-boom decline. I'm not saying that means there is an incoming recession as a number of reasons could be at play likethe market simply correcting itself, but things like that tend to be why people think one is impending.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#79

Post by duxup »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #72
duxup wrote: post #27

My questions about the viability of Uber aside, I stick to the story I've heard repeated in many forms "executives sell shares for any number of reasons, but only buy for one reason". Accordingly I don't put much meaning behind stories about an executive selling.

Or they buy to convince you to buy.

I suppose someone has tired that but I don't think that generally is done or would be effective.

Re: Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly

#80

Post by stevehawk »

ralph84 wrote: post #40
fastball wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon does make a profit though. And when they weren't, it was by choice and they were not burning billions in investor dollars to do it. But yes, I probably should've said "Viability" instead of "Profitability".

Every unprofitable growth company says they’re doing it “by choice”. And every unprofitable growth company burns investor dollars (where else would the dollars come from?). During Amazon’s unprofitable years many people were saying the exact same things about Amazon that people say about Uber now. Of course that doesn’t mean every unprofitable growth company is Amazon, but Amazon’s success means companies won’t stop…

Except Amazon was cash flow positive but "not profitable" because it was heavily reinvesting in itself. It was making shareholders mad because they wanted that cash back as dividends. Uber is not cash flow positive and not investing in itself near the scale Amazon was, assuming that we are not counting heavily subsidized rides as self investment.
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