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Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

scottlocklin.wordpress.com

71–80 of 113 posts

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#71
post #19

It's funny in a way, that a modern person believes that through technology we can very well reach consciousness with computers, go to Mars, design our genes, achieve immortality, colonize the universe, find the "god's particle", and so on, but successfully modelling an economy is impossible...

It's not impossible (I would like to believe) but it involves self-referential models: In order to work, economic models must include models of the models (both yours and other peoples'.) This means that cybernetics (the study of "circular loops in causation") is the minimum formalism for economics.

I don't see that these self-referential models are so exclusive to modeling economics. Many machine actors naturally develop to have models of the other actors. An AI which plays Go probably has some limited model of its competitor (or a "typical" competitor) in the sense that it can predict "if I make move, my competitor is likely to counter with one of moves".

Consciousness was referenced above. One thing commonly associated with consciousness, at least in humans, is a theory of mind. We model the actors all around us on the assumption that they each have their own mind, and that by modeling their mind we can predict their actions and intentions given enough situational context.

Mind you, theory of mind might not be a prerequisite for consciousness and maybe it's even possible to have theory of mind without consciousness, but the point is that machines acting in environments that are affected by other actors are going to develop models for those actors naturally as they're pushed to become more proficient in their role. Keep pushing them to become more proficient at anything involving multiple actors and it's plausible that the machine's model for a given actor will itself contain predictions for that actor's models of the other actors -- i.e. self-referential models. That Go AI could probably predict the opponent's action multiple turns down the road, which includes predicting its own response to each move, for example.

I think the more significant difference between modeling a Go opponent and modeling an economy is not self-referential models, but probably just the number and depth of connections. In the progression of training machines to play games, we've gotten good at single-player games like Mario, then two-player games like Chess or Go, and now some work is going into multiplayer games like Starcraft. Each of these represents a slightly "larger" closed environment.

Contrast this to a frictionless economy, where each actor's actions have sweeping effects across the globe. Usually tiny effects, but they reach far through the interconnections. Unlike these games, the approach of starting by modeling a small, closed economy and then scaling that up to larger economies isn't nearly as feasible. There really aren't any "independent" economies today to study. The best you could do is point to a mostly-isolated state like North Korea, but even that's a huge thing to model on its own and the data for doing that isn't accessible. I think the bigger issue with modeling economies isn't the self-referential models -- those are relevant in other areas that machines are already becoming proficient at -- but the scale and the fact that any on-ramp to help deal with that scale incrementally is not obvious.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#72
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nixon also made Vietnamization a high level goal of his presidency. How did that work out? Propaganda? Latin America is based on caste. If your "revolution" is based on stealing from the Spanish-blooded landowners to feed Amerindian losers who breed like rabbits, you will get opposition. Not much propaganda needed. And when the landowners send their sons to the army officer corps, you will have opposition with actual…

> If your "revolution" is based on stealing from the Spanish-blooded landowners to feed Amerindian losers who breed like rabbits, you will get opposition. this is some real mask-off shit.

English, please.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Practically they're selected by existing economics committee members.

That would make me incorrect, if true. Source?

https://www.nobelprize.org/about/the-economic-sciences-prize...

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/about/the-nobel-committee-...

Looks like different people to me.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Practically they're selected by existing economics committee members.

That would make me incorrect, if true. Source?

https://web.archive.org/web/20130901225828/https://www.nobel...

> The Committee members are elected for a period of three years from among the members of the Academy. In assessing the qualifications of the candidates, the Committee is assisted by specially appointed expert advisers

ie. the committee makes election decisions for themselves, while delegating a bit to advisers that they appoint.

In most of the other fields, this is what you want. A physics group shouldn't have to agree with the literature members wrt who is on the physics committee. This breaks down for economics though because the whole prize was originally envisioned as a propaganda campaign for a specific branch of economics, so the process means it stays that way.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would make me incorrect, if true. Source?

https://web.archive.org/web/20130901225828/https://www.nobel... > The Committee members are elected for a period of three years from among the members of the Academy. In assessing the qualifications of the candidates, the Committee is assisted by specially appointed expert advisers ie. the committee makes election decisions for themselves, while delegating a bit to advisers that they appoint. In most of the other fie…

Thanks! Will have to read those sources.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#76
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying is an extremely indirect form of voting. What socialism means is that workers inside a corporation would democratically decide how to run that corporation, instead of being handed down directions from an absolute ruler (the CEO/Board of directors).

That's only the first half of what socialism means, the second half is that if they make poor choices, and their corporation goes bankrupt, the other corporation has to employ them and give the same amount of voting power, as to the old workers who had made better choices, and kept their corporation working. The first half is pretty much uncontroversial, and would work under capitalism too. The problematic part is th…

To my understanding, the only obligation would be that, IF you "employed" someone, they should have the same voting power as everyone else, since they should always be empowered to have some say on their own work. But I don't know of any socialist principle that would force any particular company to "employ"/associate with any particular person.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#77

FWIW, the Nobel prize in economics isn't a real Nobel per se. The Nobel family was very against it's inclusion in the 60s (it was added by the Swedish Central Bank as a celebration), and is awarded mostly by members of the Mont Pelerin Society for whoever circle jerks neoliberal ideas the best.

Whether or not there's a Nobel prize in economics has been litigated to death on HN and no doubt the rest of the internet. It's always repetitive and therefore off topic for HN. Let's not go there anymore.

Also, please keep ideological flamebait like "whoever circle jerks neoliberal ideas the best" far away from this site, regardless of which ideologies you support or abhor.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21675764.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#78
post #19

It's funny in a way, that a modern person believes that through technology we can very well reach consciousness with computers, go to Mars, design our genes, achieve immortality, colonize the universe, find the "god's particle", and so on, but successfully modelling an economy is impossible...

I don't think that's the precise way people feel. Socialism/etc HAS "failed", and capitalism HAS "succeeded", for certain definitions of failed and succeeded. What people assume is that socialism today would fail (and I agree). But if presented with new facts, e.g. here is a robot that can produce food, gather solar power, and manufacture goods for you, and there is one per household, suddenly the literal definition…

> here is a robot that can produce food, gather solar power, and manufacture goods for you, and there is one per household, suddenly the literal definition of socialism can become much more pallatable

That's not socialism; the robots are not collectively owned. Each household owns its own.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#79
post #36
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China basically promised the people who are now in their 40s and 50s benefits that they will not get. This also happened in former Soviet countries. China has destroyed some of their environment, trading off building up industry for pollution. This also happened in former Soviet countries.

You mean like lifting more than 300 millions people out of dire poverty? Chinese in their 40s and 50s rabidly defend their government, because it delivered. I bemoan lack of democracy, Xinjiang repression, pollution and all the rest; but the fact is that the past 30 years have been a success of unseen proportions for China.

And the ones in their 60s remember half their family dying from the famine when they were children, especially the villagers who moved out.

When you live in a country where any negative expression will get you killed, arrested, etc. You quickly only hear the positive voices.

Re: Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism

#80

A sad trod through a common delusion of grandeur I see on the internet these days. If the Chilean control room was really ripped off of Star Trek, that's a little absurd and hilarious but moreover sad. On the flip side, I'm not sure how much I agree with its premise and conclusion. Sure, it's easy to mock technocommunism historically if you ignore the elephant in the room that is China. While not in the same category…

>What's fun about this piece is that it puts into perspective how absurd, unworkable, and thoroughly ripped off of Star Trek the Chilean control room was, which is thoroughly entertaining. Pretty presumptuous, considering how it was never really put into practice before Allende was murdered and Pinochet's brutal regime was installed by the CIA. Reminds me of a quote: “The boys of Capital, they also chortle in their m…

Easter egg inside that metaphor:

One day some Spanish anarchists built a functioning helicopter. Upon seeing it fly, the Wright brothers immediately teamed up with the auto industry and shot up everyone in the testing facility. Then the Wright brothers intoned:

Not invented here.

That was found crossed out in one of William Blum's manuscripts with these words written in red ink: "too inside baseball."

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