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How Not to Die (2007)

paulgraham.com

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Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#71

Post by marcosdumay »

buzzkillington wrote: post #15
ErikAugust wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. Ideas are overrated. If the startup is able to execute on building things of unique value, I don't necessarily think it is rational to stop. So often however, the startups don't build anything unique, and many don't seem to build anything at all.

>I don't know. Ideas are overrated. A good idea doesn't mean you won't fail. A bad idea does mean you will fail.

> A bad idea does mean you will fail.

Or pivot. If I'm remembering it right, PG has an entire essay about pivoting.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#72

Post by jpindar »

tpmx wrote: post #46
consultutah wrote: post #4

So did the Octopart guys ever become billionaires?

I feel like I can share this particular piece of gossip - hopefully it's useful to someone - I'm not particularly interested in going after this particular slice of business: So we just had a sales guy join from a large electronics components distributor - the kind that handles the interfaces between a) globally known consumer hardware brands both in "the west" and in PRC b) the hardware manufacturers (mostly PRC, so…

This. So much this. The whole electronics manufacturing industry runs on Excel sheets. Every BOM, inventory list etc. is in Excel. Because that's what your manager knows how to use, because that's what their managers knew how to use, and so on.

It came with Windows so that's that, they can't be bothered to try anything else. Not even after mangled sheets cause repeated mistakes.

I would so love to work on something like this, but when people won't even use a free solution suggested by one of their trusted employees, selling one will be tough.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#73

Post by philwelch »

burtonator wrote: post #44
perfunctory wrote: post #21

> One of the most interesting things we've discovered from working on Y Combinator is that founders are more motivated by the fear of looking bad than by the hope of getting millions of dollars. So if you want to get millions of dollars, put yourself in a position where failure will be public and humiliating. Oh, boy. Why can't we have a world where I can pursue my interests without the fear of loosing something. I g…

Commitment device... they're really interesting but they can also cause you to do stupid things. One example of a commitment device is to tell your friend something like "I'm going to write a book and get it published in six months and if I don't I'll give you $5k" ... the problem is, what if you legitimately decide that writing a book is just not for you?

Maybe its so awful that it’s worth $5000 not to have to do it anymore—but at least you won’t quit over anything smaller than that, and the number of times you will regret losing $5000 and your self-respect will probably be outweighed by the number of times you accomplish something you might not have otherwise and at least take a little bit of lasting pride in it.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#74

Post by hef19898 »

tpmx wrote: post #46
consultutah wrote: post #4

So did the Octopart guys ever become billionaires?

I feel like I can share this particular piece of gossip - hopefully it's useful to someone - I'm not particularly interested in going after this particular slice of business: So we just had a sales guy join from a large electronics components distributor - the kind that handles the interfaces between a) globally known consumer hardware brands both in "the west" and in PRC b) the hardware manufacturers (mostly PRC, so…

Ah, sounds a lot like the solar sector. Chinese manufacturers, close to now ERP-usage, inefficient processes. And being a b2b market doesn't hurt neither if you ask me. Also, the MVP when compared to excel shouldn't be the hardest thing in the world. I only expect the sales cycle to be rather long.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#75

Post by philwelch »

samatman wrote: post #53
burtonator wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commitment device... they're really interesting but they can also cause you to do stupid things. One example of a commitment device is to tell your friend something like "I'm going to write a book and get it published in six months and if I don't I'll give you $5k" ... the problem is, what if you legitimately decide that writing a book is just not for you?

$5k is a high strike price, but this is the point of a commitment device. By putting a cost on failure, you can sort between "I genuinely no longer want to do this" and "I'm getting akrasia because doing things is hard and quitting is easy". If you've made the cost of walking away higher than the expected value of the commitment (five grand would be a lot of money to make on many books), you should have some strong,…

Thanks for introducing me to the word “akrasia”!

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#76

Post by philwelch »

diego wrote: post #22

I don't think "If you can just avoid dying, you get rich" has proven true. I've invested in startups (including YC ones) that followed this to a tee. They never found product-market fit, they could have been going forever, investors forgot about them. Some are still going, some managed to get acquired, some closed shop. It's really a false dichotomy, only a small fraction of the companies that avoid dying manage to e…

I think the point where you stop trying to pivot into higher and higher growth opportunities and accept your fate as a sustainable but small business could be classified as a form of “death” (perhaps “undead”) if your original goal really was to get rich.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#77

Post by hef19898 »

jpindar wrote: post #72
tpmx wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like I can share this particular piece of gossip - hopefully it's useful to someone - I'm not particularly interested in going after this particular slice of business: So we just had a sales guy join from a large electronics components distributor - the kind that handles the interfaces between a) globally known consumer hardware brands both in "the west" and in PRC b) the hardware manufacturers (mostly PRC, so…

This. So much this. The whole electronics manufacturing industry runs on Excel sheets. Every BOM, inventory list etc. is in Excel. Because that's what your manager knows how to use, because that's what their managers knew how to use, and so on. It came with Windows so that's that, they can't be bothered to try anything else. Not even after mangled sheets cause repeated mistakes. I would so love to work on something l…

I am starting a bootstrapped business along the lines now. My take is that sellzong a solution won't work. You have to compete with Excel, and all the reasons you just stated, and SAP (or any other ERP-System they might use if any). Selling a service is different story so. If you can show them that you as a subcontractor, in my case as a 4PL, can deliver better performance or solve some of their pain points you can use whatever solutions you want. And being more efficient and software-heavy only helps you.

All you have to do is give them their data in the se excel sheets they are used to. Preferably by e-mail, portals and such are the devil.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#78

Post by tpmx »

hef19898 wrote: post #74
tpmx wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like I can share this particular piece of gossip - hopefully it's useful to someone - I'm not particularly interested in going after this particular slice of business: So we just had a sales guy join from a large electronics components distributor - the kind that handles the interfaces between a) globally known consumer hardware brands both in "the west" and in PRC b) the hardware manufacturers (mostly PRC, so…

Ah, sounds a lot like the solar sector. Chinese manufacturers, close to now ERP-usage, inefficient processes. And being a b2b market doesn't hurt neither if you ask me. Also, the MVP when compared to excel shouldn't be the hardest thing in the world. I only expect the sales cycle to be rather long.

I think the solar sector may be different. The component sector has a vast number of components in use (like 500k+ different parts, I dunno), and like 100+ component suppliers.

Re: How Not to Die (2007)

#79

Post by shawnz »

tlb wrote: post #37
perfunctory wrote: post #21

> One of the most interesting things we've discovered from working on Y Combinator is that founders are more motivated by the fear of looking bad than by the hope of getting millions of dollars. So if you want to get millions of dollars, put yourself in a position where failure will be public and humiliating. Oh, boy. Why can't we have a world where I can pursue my interests without the fear of loosing something. I g…

I find that when pursuing purely personal interests, publicly committing to a deliverable helps me get it done. I say I'm going do something by a given date as a way of putting myself in a position where failure will be public and humiliating. People's motivation systems vary a lot, but it works for me.

I feel the same way, but apparently there's some research to the contrary: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21080132
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