Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#71

Post by peteey » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:57 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #28

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Disagree. Just look at what happen the last time the cost of oil plunged - exploration slows to a crawl and some wells are just shut down as they can’t make money off the oil. It makes no sense to spend $10 to create a barrel of crude oil you can sell for $9.

Your contradiction is only temporary. The countries which product oil at today's price will eventually exhaust their oilfields. In response, oil prices will rise and other countries will be motivated to drill their own reserves.

We will consume all convenient oil sooner or later.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#72

Post by corodra » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:59 PM UTC

crispyambulance wrote: post #64

eloff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

I think the peak in "peak oil" is a very wide peak with a lot of noise in it. That makes it easy for certain people to make-believe it's not going to happen. But it is... we just might not be able to predict which decade with certainty. Perhaps this is a kind of an intelligence test for human civilization. Can we stop the global guzzling of petroleum resources before there's a profound ecological and economic shock?…

Look, I'm just about a complete package when it comes to being an asshole. My history on HN is more than enough to prove that.

But, I don't' think humans are that useless to where they're going to fail in fixing this. This can be reversed and we're in the beginning stages. The hole in the ozone layer was deemed doomed and without repair. NASA has it in track on being fully recovered in around 2060 since we stopped using shit aerosols in the 90s.

I think Musk is a complete and utter cunt, but I also recognize the good he's done for electronic cars. Now, all the big players are releasing real electric cars. Hell, VW is doing so to fix their PR image after the diesel scandal. This is good. Still will take time, but you can't have a critical mass breaking point without a slow beginning. A point will be reached (when, I'm not smart enough to answer) and fossil fuel cars will look like a home phone compared to cell phones. If you're old enough, you'll remember that cell phones were "secondary" phones. Then, in a flash, people realized "Oh, we all stopped paying for landlines". And few people have landlines anymore.

The moment Dodge/Ford/GM come out with an EV that has the same feel and balls as a muscle car, that's my personal breaking point. Right now it's all focused on the luxury, feather, Italian aesthetics feel. Fuck that dumbass nonsense. Give me a mean and angry electric vehicle. Or an ultra long range EV Jeep. That'd be cool.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#73

Post by frogpelt » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 2:59 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #51

The US had the single largest increases in crude oil and LNG production in history in previous years. These other smaller producers are a drop in the bucket compared to the massive increases seen in the USA. These two stark facts may help explain why US politicians are reticent to back climate science or carbon taxation...why would they back something to curtail resource extraction that's making a KILLING in their re…

I think you are off here. California, Colorado and New Mexico are all in the top ten of oil production.

Yes, some states are "red" and they tend to like their fossil fuels. But they may be "red" in part because of their oil production, not the other way around.

Also, many traditional "red" states like Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Indiana, Oklahoma, Florida, North and South Dakota have shown to be very interested in increasing wind[1] and solar[2] energy capacities.

Sources:

[1]: https://www.power-technology.com/features/us-wind-energy-by-...

[2]: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/the-us-states-leading-the-wa...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#74

Post by rmrfrmrf » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:04 PM UTC

I mean, hopefully it's common knowledge now that it's impossible to combat climate change by working within markets.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#75

Post by option_greek » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:04 PM UTC

eej71 wrote: post #37

jdjdjjsjs wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also exactly correct. The actual reason is that fossil fuels are highly subsidized in most developing countries, so the only impact this has is in reducing the subsidies paid by the government exchequer.

Not sure I understand how they can be both highly subsidized and yet highly taxed at the same time.

Some sections of society might be subsidized (poor, inputs to fertilizer industry etc) but overall the price of gas is quite high (India: $4.18 per gallon, Brazil: $4.30). Its almost at same level as California and without any activism.

During the oil highs of 2011-2012, prices reached as high as $5.5 per gallon.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#76

Post by nradov » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:05 PM UTC

eloff wrote: post #48

corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

The notion of crude oil becoming a stranded asset seems a little silly. It will be many decades before the transportation infrastructure transitions off fossil fuels. And even then there will be demand for oil as a feed stock for chemical manufacturing (plastics, fertilizers, etc). (I'm not claiming that this is a good thing, it's just the economic reality.)

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#77

Post by adrianN » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:05 PM UTC

acidburnNSA wrote: post #66

milesward wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, not if solar/batteries get cheaper: it won't be worth digging up

As the generators have gotten cheaper, there's some indication that total energy costs have increased because of the cost of dealing with the intermittent nature of wind and solar. So for economics one must look well beyond levelized cost of electricity nowadays. If indeed energy storage costs dominate beyond 40% renewable penetration (total energy) then the exponential curve we see today at the 5% level will likely…

We are very far away from 40% renewables for primary energy consumption. Almost all countries are very far away even if you just look at electricity.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#78

Post by corodra » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:06 PM UTC

perfunctory wrote: post #70

corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

> A lot more needs to happen to end oil's stranglehold. So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action?

You want my honest answer? No fucking clue. I'm focused on cement. I've given up on tech, IT and programming and went into the cement industry to work towards a smaller CO2 footprint in cement production. It's the second largest CO2 producer on the planet behind fossil fuels. I found making apps and backend software to be a waste of time in my own desires. There's a shit ton of science in cement and infrastructure to keep me interested.

Maybe I did give a partial answer? And I'll paraphrase Neil deGrasse Tyson on this one, "You can't save the world with an app." Get INTO the industry you want to fix and fucking fix it. Enough people do it, someone is bound to figure it out.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#79

Post by adrianN » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:07 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #20

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

That would be a catastrophe. Basically all oxygen in the atmosphere is a result of photosynthesis, which (combined with animals breathing) is a closed cycle ( edit: in terms of mass, not energy) unless some of the resulting biomass (glucose) is buried underground (as oil and/or coal). Digging up and burning all fossil fuels would consume all oxygen in the atmosphere... let's hope that at least some of it is buried so…

The carbon cycle includes geological processes, so your premise of a closed loop that only involves living things is wrong.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#80

Post by ourlordcaffeine » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 3:07 PM UTC

corodra wrote: post #57

eloff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

To be fair, I think the "peak oil scare" was good. That's when we all started to focus and take renewables seriously. I find it funny that OPEC never learned from its mistake from the 70s when there was the oil shortage and fuel efficiency became a thing. To be aware, fuel efficiency before then was never worth mentioning in a car sale. Yes, it never became too big because the shortage ended, but it at least got star…

> they'll make their money from lithium and battery manufacturing

This isn't much of a problem though I think? It would be a problem if they bought mining rights then refused to mine causing shortages of raw materials needed for renewable tech.