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Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

economist.com

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Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#71

Post by Zarath »

zaroth wrote: post #50
robotresearcher wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data that supports what you think?

The quarterly safety numbers that Tesla releases are difficult to draw conclusions from, because they do not represent a controlled experiment over the same road conditions. However here are the numbers for millions of miles per crash (higher is better). With AutoPilot, Without AutoPilot but With Active Safety Measures, Without AutoPilot or Active Safety Measures, and NHTSA Average Vehicle 19Q3 - 4.34 2.70 1.82 0.50…

Good to see improvement, but is this controlled for the fact that autopilot is mostly on highways? I'm not sure what the crash rate per mile is on the highway vs driving in a city.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#72

Post by gambiting »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #18
deepnotderp wrote: post #4

The most pertinent point here being that although collecting lots of self driving car data is easy, the tail and unexpected events that you care about are surprisingly rare. And many of these events can also be entirely new (never seen before). Current AI SOTA techniques simply require too much data and cannot reason well enough to solve this. Leaving Musk aside, amongst those who are serious about self driving cars,…

I agree LIDAR is necessary. The goal is not to achieve perfection, just demonstrably more safe than an average driver . I'm curious how we will evaluate average driver . Clearly, including drunk driving accidents in the mix is not a helpful metric for safety-conscious drivers.

I disagree. It needs to be absolutely perfect, not just safer than the average driver.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#73

Post by macspoofing »

crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

>even if the failure rate is on average /better/

Which has not been true thus far. That's the problem.

> The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or even rocket science.

Why shouldn't it be higher? Why shouldn't it be on the level of airline travel?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#74

Post by vladislav »

theieindjri wrote: post #38
crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

I don't understand why so many otherwise smart people fell for FSD hype. I'm not talking about the many con artists - I'm talking about the tech-savvy people who genuinely bought into FSD hype. How is it not obvious that FSD most likely requires artificial general intelligence and is, thus, probably somewhere between "many decades away" and "humans will never achieve it"?

It takes a while to internalize what's difficult about the problem. Partly I think it's that humans take for granted their ability to see, which requires no conscious effort but expends 70% of the brain's computational resources at any time. It's not clear AGI is required... computer vision is not known to definitely be AI-complete. It's a very difficult problem but could potentially be solved in the next several years.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#75

Post by bsder »

theieindjri wrote: post #38
crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

I don't understand why so many otherwise smart people fell for FSD hype. I'm not talking about the many con artists - I'm talking about the tech-savvy people who genuinely bought into FSD hype. How is it not obvious that FSD most likely requires artificial general intelligence and is, thus, probably somewhere between "many decades away" and "humans will never achieve it"?

> How is it not obvious that FSD most likely requires artificial general intelligence

Because it doesn't. The issue is that all the self-driving car companies ignore how people actually drive.

People memorize their local driving area--it's why teenagers are so incredibly dangerous and why if you put a new stop sign into an area you cause chaos for several months. A self-driving car needs to do the same--the advantage is that a self-driving car can download that "memorization" for any new area it goes into.

Between memorized zones, people mostly "keep station"--they get onto a freeway and keep a relative position with respect to the lanes and the other cars on the road until they get back off.

When something goes very wrong, people panic and random chance takes over the fate of the vast majority of people.

None of this represents general or artificial intelligence. However, solving these tasks requires a lot of very grubby, non-scalable work over a lot of grubby data.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#76

Post by [deleted] »

KaiserPro wrote: post #70
robotresearcher wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming what you say is true, is the Tesla system worse than a human driver overall in its operating domain? Humans have weaknesses too. What do the data say on their relative performance? I’m not taking a position here, just asking for data.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

[deleted]

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#77

Post by [deleted] »

KaiserPro wrote: post #70
robotresearcher wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming what you say is true, is the Tesla system worse than a human driver overall in its operating domain? Humans have weaknesses too. What do the data say on their relative performance? I’m not taking a position here, just asking for data.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

[deleted]

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#78

Post by [deleted] »

KaiserPro wrote: post #70
robotresearcher wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming what you say is true, is the Tesla system worse than a human driver overall in its operating domain? Humans have weaknesses too. What do the data say on their relative performance? I’m not taking a position here, just asking for data.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

[deleted]

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#79

Post by [deleted] »

KaiserPro wrote: post #70
robotresearcher wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming what you say is true, is the Tesla system worse than a human driver overall in its operating domain? Humans have weaknesses too. What do the data say on their relative performance? I’m not taking a position here, just asking for data.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

[deleted]

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#80

Post by [deleted] »

KaiserPro wrote: post #70
robotresearcher wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming what you say is true, is the Tesla system worse than a human driver overall in its operating domain? Humans have weaknesses too. What do the data say on their relative performance? I’m not taking a position here, just asking for data.

Look, "autopilot" works on highways, where there is a median. Everything goes the same direction, and there is a minimal amount of clutter. Its about as easy as driving gets. This is why a level 2 "autopilot" can parade around the place as something that is both innovate and safe. None of the data compares what happens at junctions, which is where the majority of crashes happen. It cannot work in suburban sprawl, It…

[deleted]
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