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Microsoft is Dead

paulgraham.com

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Re: Microsoft is Dead

#71

Post by getsat »

bergie wrote: post #35
techdmn wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Until the PC goes away I have a sneaking suspicion this may happen much sooner than I initially expected. Currently working on business software for a non-U.S. market, word is that our customers have more smart-phones than PCs.

I just came back from Kenya, and it was interesting to see how everything was done with featurephones using quite primitive (but efficient) menu-based applications. Banking, etc. In every village there were kiosks with diesel generators or car batteries selling phone charging. Being a developing country means they have been able to skip unnecessary dead-end technologies like landline phones and desktop computers, and…

That is a really interesting observation (about skipping dead-end technologies). I wonder how many business opportunities there are like that that are unexploited, even in first world countries.

I've added it to my brainstorming list. Thanks!

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#72

Post by lukeschlather »

Tichy wrote: post #51
armandososa wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point here is that most people who have the luxury (and information) to chose their platform won't use Windows. If teleporters were invented today, chances are that you wouldn't be able to afford one for the next 20 years.

I know several people who willingly chose Windows 7, and who are knowledgeable about computers. In fact, 75% of IT people I know could be about right.

I've intentionally chosen Windows 7 + Windows Server to run my IT infrastructure, but the majority of the factors that motivated that choice were not due to much real work on Microsoft's part. QuickBooks, an internal Access database, our bookstore's POS software, and CAD software. All are needed, none of them run on Linux (and most of them don't run on Macs.)

Windows being the best choice of operating system is an entirely orthogonal issue from Microsoft being dead.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#73

Post by RickRoll »

Lewisham wrote: post #47
jdp23 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When this came out I was still at Microsoft with a charter of "game changing strategies". There were (and still are) quite a few things that MS could do to reinvigorate itself, but the corporate culture keeps them from gathering momentum: the company's success came in a PC-oriented world, so they don't think from a phone, device, or web perspective; and the lack of understanding of win/win dynamics (which Google rode…

Isn't this why the stuff out of the Entertainment & Devices division is doing so well? My understanding is that E&D are not as strongly shackled to corporate culture and runs as a semi-autonomous unit making its own decisions, albeit with a healthy cash flow. This is why Xbox has done so well, and Windows Phone 7, for all its critics, is really the epitome of something Microsoft simply couldn't have designed when thi…

It was an extremely efficient monolith, while Bill Gates was managing everything. But than he concentrated on the Sun anti-monopoly suit and MS become a regular stupid corp.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#74

Post by viraptor »

AlexC04 wrote: post #25

According to analytics, I've had 20,000 hits to my website in the last 30 days. 75% of those are reported to be running a windows operating system. As much as I respect the interesting point of view presented in the article, I sometimes wonder if sites like Hacker News and Slashdot don't put us all into some sort of exceptionally nerdy bubble-think. Like with the last week or so when everything I read seemed to say "…

Of course MS is not dead in a way that noone uses them. But think about what you wrote - 75%. In Y2K, you wouldn't even monitor it - of course 99,99% use windows. You might start being interested in the weird trend of some people not using IE by then. This is where they were - the default, good-enough and present everywhere. It's not the case anymore - people have choice and as soon as they realise it, they will not choose MS anymore (as far as OS goes).

Some years ago, I didn't know people who knew about alternative OS-es. These days I don't know people using windows, who aren't considering buying an Apple product as their next computer. In this sense they definitely died recently.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#75

Post by wtracy »

lukeschlather wrote: post #72
Tichy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know several people who willingly chose Windows 7, and who are knowledgeable about computers. In fact, 75% of IT people I know could be about right.

I've intentionally chosen Windows 7 + Windows Server to run my IT infrastructure, but the majority of the factors that motivated that choice were not due to much real work on Microsoft's part. QuickBooks, an internal Access database, our bookstore's POS software, and CAD software. All are needed, none of them run on Linux (and most of them don't run on Macs.) Windows being the best choice of operating system is an en…

So your reasons for choosing Windows have everything to do with third-party software that only supports Windows, and nothing to do with Windows itself.

From a strategic perspective, that should be scary to Microsoft and anyone who is betting on Microsoft.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#76

Post by Encosia »

chrismealy wrote: post #17
encoderer wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is xbox and sync only a "modest success"? Perhaps only in the context of Microsoft where they're not a billion dollar business so therefore their success is "modest."

A few years ago I read that xbox had lost $10 billion so far.

The Entertainment and Games division started turning a profit in 2008. They may still be in the red overall (I don't know for sure), but they're turning a steady profit now.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#77

Post by ashearer »

kingsidharth wrote: post #27

> I know they seemed dangerous as late as 2001, because I wrote an essay then about how they were less dangerous than they seemed. Didn't get it. They seemed dangerous because Paul wrote an essay?

If they hadn't seemed dangerous, Paul wouldn't have written the essay.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#79

Post by Tichy »

lukeschlather wrote: post #72
Tichy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know several people who willingly chose Windows 7, and who are knowledgeable about computers. In fact, 75% of IT people I know could be about right.

I've intentionally chosen Windows 7 + Windows Server to run my IT infrastructure, but the majority of the factors that motivated that choice were not due to much real work on Microsoft's part. QuickBooks, an internal Access database, our bookstore's POS software, and CAD software. All are needed, none of them run on Linux (and most of them don't run on Macs.) Windows being the best choice of operating system is an en…

I think it has been like that for most of the lifetime of Microsoft, though.

If Linux games would have been as good as Windows games, none of my friends would ever have installed Windows.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#80

Post by Todd »

Aaronontheweb wrote: post #57
jdp23 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true -- in fact Microsoft's values include being self-critical, but not being self-aware. Also, it's a very competitive culture, and the easiest way to show you're smarter/better/more powerful than somebody else is to attack them. The net result is that it's an incredibly negative culture, and it really affects people both on the professional and personal side.

I haven't worked for Microsoft for long, but I don't find this to be true. My team is very cooperative and positive.

Certainly there are some groups that are more negative than others. You may not have been exposed to it yet, but politics there can be terrible. Either politics between groups (often working on similar/competitive technology) or within groups, where people jockey for stack rank. MS "grades on a curve" so there's always a winner and loser, regardless of how great your team is. This sets up a very bad intra-team dynamic and it's been one of my principle complaints about MS since I left over 10 years ago.
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