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Facebook hype will fade

cnn.com

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Re: Facebook hype will fade

#71

Post by jdminhbg »

kprobst wrote: post #29

"We will move on, just as we did from the chat rooms of AOL, without even looking back. When the place is as ethereal as a website, our allegiance is much more abstract than it is to a local pub or gym." I disagree with this, simply because grandma wasn't on any AOL chat rooms, but she _is_ on Facebook. The only reason I'm on FB is because Aunt Tilly and Uncle Bob and grandma are also on there, and I can connect with…

I hate to sounds misanthropic, but Aunt Tilly and Uncle Bob are why I'm not on Facebook, and why I didn't use it much when I was. The Tillys and Bobs of the world meant I had to spend basically all my time tweaking my hide/show settings to see anything useful, and everyone else's own Tillys and Bobs kept them from saying anything interesting.

Like AOL, Tilly and Bob will still be using it and still generating revenue for them long after the rest of us have moved on.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#72

Post by ojbyrne »

When you have so much traffic, it's easy to find other avenues for product changes. You can move into new niches. You gain flexibility.

But when you also have a high valuation, and have been taking money off the table, those choices become limited to those that are perceived as the highest growth. You lose flexibility.

Frugality is good, at all levels.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#73

Post by sdghjrjyt »

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Re: Facebook hype will fade

#74

Post by robryan »

mscarborough wrote: post #61
phuff wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have at least the class of 2016-2017 given the 12 and 13 year-olds I know that have accounts...

OK, at least for now. Nothing better for fickle teenagers will pop up in the next 6 years? Doubtful. EDIT: fickleness with social networks not restricted to teenagers, obviously.

Tumblr seems to be big with the younger age groups, it's more of a facebook compliment though.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#76

Post by robryan »

Facebook has the advantage of being built into way more mobile devices than anything before it ever was. Many phones now come with a facebook icon on the main page when you first turn it on.

Also the amount of free advertising it gets from companies using it's logo everywhere with add us on facebook and have your say on facebook, how many other companies get their logo and a call to action to use there service for free on TV every day around the world?

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#77

Post by knowsnothing613 »

mscarborough wrote: post #61
phuff wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have at least the class of 2016-2017 given the 12 and 13 year-olds I know that have accounts...

OK, at least for now. Nothing better for fickle teenagers will pop up in the next 6 years? Doubtful. EDIT: fickleness with social networks not restricted to teenagers, obviously.

The new it social network for tweens/YA is tumblr. Facebook will eventually lose market share to Tumblr.

All these social networks are simply an extension of the email use case. It's nothing new, nor do I see Facebook taking down google.

Social networks are like hot clubs. Eventually their popularity fades, as soon as another it scene opens, which is why I'd never invest in a social network site.

So shall it pass with Facebook

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#78

Post by malloreon »

I don't understand the comparisons of FB to AOL, besides their seemingly common goal to sandbox the internet.

People who use AOL who discovered "the real" internet had no reason to go back. Everything they wanted was just as available + more. There's no friction to switching, beyond learning how to use a search engine.

Facebook has billions of photos, posts, comments, friend requests, updates, registrations through connect, all being added to the site every day. The longer someone uses it, the higher the cost to stop using it, or switch to another.

That's why FB has the staying power AOL did not.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#79

Post by malloreon »

Tichy wrote: post #60
kragen wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the teenagers I know have Facebook accounts. Facebook might lose the high school class of 2018, but they already have the class of 2014 sewn up.

Do they like Facebook, or are they only on there because of peer pressure?

Facebook creates incredible peer pressure to join, if only to answer this question:

"what if they're talking about me on facebook?"

Facebook is directed peer pressure.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#80

Post by cft »

loire280 wrote: post #25
klochner wrote: post #5

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly. facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and f…

My 12 year old brother and all of his friends use Facebook already. Many of them use the mobile site on their iPod touches. (incidentally, the iPod touch is a great way for Apple to build a userbase among the young)

mobile site or the fb app?
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