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The electric car as a talisman of false hope

jussipasanen.com

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Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#71

Post by sokoloff »

eptcyka wrote: post #21
Denzel wrote: post #13

His argument distills to: solve it all-at-once, or don’t solve it at all. This is an uninteresting and uninspiring line of thinking that ignores the nature of socially dynamic systems which don’t exist in a world of instantaneous cause-and-effect. His conclusion states that electric cars make a difference, but they don’t make a real difference: “I do think they can slightly reduce unsustainability” but “by switching…

The argument isn't that doing _something_ is bad, it's that the amount of effort people put into obtaining their shiny non-paleolithic-compost-fueled-but-rather-battery-powered 2 tonne sledgehammers would be better spent changing policies that operate on organizational rather than individual units. How about we just stop buying as much shit from halfway across the world? Global trade requires us to spend stupid amoun…

I paid net $22K for a new 2015 Nissan LEAF (after $10K in combined government incentives). You could have gotten the base model (with resistance heat only) for under $20K, but that’s a fairly poor choice for New England year ‘round usage.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#72

Post by Nasrudith »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #53
Denzel wrote: post #13

His argument distills to: solve it all-at-once, or don’t solve it at all. This is an uninteresting and uninspiring line of thinking that ignores the nature of socially dynamic systems which don’t exist in a world of instantaneous cause-and-effect. His conclusion states that electric cars make a difference, but they don’t make a real difference: “I do think they can slightly reduce unsustainability” but “by switching…

If you dump BEVs on a grid that's transitioning towards renewables, you'll delay that transition. It doesn't make sense to account for the emissions as being the average of the grid, because you're delaying shutting down your dirtiest power to deal with the marginal load. BEVs are clearly the future, and offer opportunities for distributed storage and demand dispatch that will help us keep the grid stable even with h…

Doesn't that contradict itself? Increased storage capacity delaying the transition to renewables?

When storage at scale is the hard part and electric car batteries can power a house for a few days? Not to mention that the transportation sector is a part of the grid fundamentally. Even if it interferes with one metric it is still better overall which makes the complaint seem like it misses the point.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#73

Post by esotericn »

The charts on the page directly contradict the headline.

In the renewable energy case emissions are miniscule, and in fact only come about because the chart assumes large emissions during manufacture - a lot of the processes involved in producing an EV could be done with renewable energy, and would be if we instituted a carbon tax or otherwise forced the issue.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#74

Post by new2628 »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #37
eptcyka wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument isn't that doing _something_ is bad, it's that the amount of effort people put into obtaining their shiny non-paleolithic-compost-fueled-but-rather-battery-powered 2 tonne sledgehammers would be better spent changing policies that operate on organizational rather than individual units. How about we just stop buying as much shit from halfway across the world? Global trade requires us to spend stupid amoun…

This is a textbook example of false dilemma fallacy. Replacing ICE cars with electric cars doesn't preclude other environmental measures, and in fact, people who worry about their car's emissions tend to be people who worry about other environmental issues as well.

..it surely precludes the environmental measure of not having a car.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#75

Post by acidburnNSA »

endymi0n wrote: post #51
Denzel wrote: post #13

His argument distills to: solve it all-at-once, or don’t solve it at all. This is an uninteresting and uninspiring line of thinking that ignores the nature of socially dynamic systems which don’t exist in a world of instantaneous cause-and-effect. His conclusion states that electric cars make a difference, but they don’t make a real difference: “I do think they can slightly reduce unsustainability” but “by switching…

This comment hits the nail on the head. Plus, what the OP conveniently ignores, is that electric cars aren‘t a talisman, but a bridgehead. If electric cars succeed on a large scale, it means we solved making electricity storage fast, dense and cheap enough to put them on the road. Putting that technology into the electric grid and combining it with renewables will enable dirt cheap, limitless energy, which will contr…

Agreed.

Consider using the term "low-carbon energy" in place of "renewable energy". We want to promote the right stuff. Biofuel is considered renewable but is high carbon. Nuclear fusion would be low carbon but not considered renewable. The difference matters hugely for future energy policy.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#76

Post by pjc50 »

PeterStuer wrote: post #7

"Electric cars give us a sense that we can have change without having to change at all. They are a talisman of false hope." On a tangent issue: it going to get even worse. The automotive industry predicts total annual miles driven to go up by 300% when autonomous driving comes through.

How? The roads are at capacity in many places. We're not going to build 300% more road area to put cars on.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#77

Post by sokoloff »

growlist wrote: post #66

We could for example: 1. Incentivise retrofitting of electric transmissions to cars with internal combustion engines 2. Disincentivise the introduction of new models, visual updates etc. to existing cars via taxation 3. Incentivise durability and repairability - force car makers to produce cars that are modular and easily repaired, enforced limits on pricing of spare parts, force open-sourcing of designs etc. Of cour…

> Incentivise retrofitting of electric transmissions to cars with internal combustion engines

What would that do to help? Modern transmissions are fairly efficient (basically anything with a lockup torque converter is now very good and any manual or computer controlled manual transmission is excellent in terms of efficiency). I can’t see what an electronic transmission on an ICE engine would do that would possibly pay back.

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#78

Post by thomasz »

Denzel wrote: post #41
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People that buy electric cars to help the environment or become vegetarian, are probably more likely to make additional changes in their life, and persuade others to make changes as well, to reduce emissions. I'm not sure about that, some of my neighbours seem to think that giving up plastic bags is enough to offset their annual holiday in Bali. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-licensing

Sure, I’d be interested in seeing actual data. Which is why I qualified my statement with “probably” because of course I have anecdotes that counter your anecdotes. :) I just don’t have the time to look into any primary sources.

Those milieus who care most about the environment consistently turn out to have the highest environmental footprint. The point isn't that these people are hypocrites. Maybe they are (who, besides a cynic, isn't to some degree?), maybe they are not. The point is that it doesn't matter at all. People by and large will not alter their behavior in any major way for a common good as long as the individual marginal advantage is dwarfed by the individual marginal cost. Fishers will happily eradicate all fish in their fishing grounds and thus destroy their own livelihood, and will fiercely protest any meaningful regulation aimed at conserving. Consumers will happily fly around the world or commute in a SUV until the planet is doomed.^1

It's just the way it is, lamenting the sinful human nature doesn't change a thing. We need meaningful regulation.

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[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#79

Post by cmrdporcupine »

Seems to me a lot of people are so attached to carculture that they can't even read the article properly.

The author sees all sorts of good things about electric cars. I drive them myself. I love cars. But...

The points the article makes about cars being part of a larger flawed system of urban and rural development are spot on.

'Self-driving' cars will only make this worse.

Even just the excessive prevalence of hard-top surfaces in roads and parking lots leads to environmental catastrophe when flooding begins.

Urban sprawl leads to farmland and natural area destruction.

The car is the ultimate symbol of entitled consumerist individualism, and it is becoming more and more unsustainable.

The net effect of every household being in car(s) with a population as big as we have is really bad, even if all emissions were to be eliminated.

If all the private investment money being dumped into self-driving technology at the moment were public money being put into urban mass transit, just think of what could be accomplished...

Re: The electric car as a talisman of false hope

#80

Post by NullPrefix »

growlist wrote: post #62
lawlessone wrote: post #27

Electric vehicles would make a huge difference to me and many others that suffer from asthma. Moving the emissions away from the vehicles , away from city centres and roads to the factories and power stations where they can be controlled would save thousands of lives. Our children will look at us how we look at people during the industrial revolution. And a gradual change is better than no change at all.

Exhaust emissions are only part of the air pollution problem - brake discs and tyres contribute around 50%, as I recall. Depressing! But we need lighter vehicles all round, and less travelling in general.

>brake discs

Regenerative braking does not have this problem. Although the tyre problem remain.

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