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Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

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Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#71

Post by maxerickson »

michaelt wrote: post #25
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating. As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter. That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the sta…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-to-gas is probably feasible for consumer energy use (at least for people with room for solar panels). We have the facilities to store and distribute the gas already, and to the extent that additional storage would be necessary, it is fairly economical.

Replacing industrial and shipping energy with renewables is a bigger problem.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#73

Post by benj111 »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #37
michaelt wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating. As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter. That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the sta…

The entire UK energy use is about 2% of the world total. So I'm guessing that the storage needs of your specific (and oddly non-grid connected) home is only a small fraction of that and doesn't affect the larger, global, back of the envelope figure I'm looking for. Using numbers to quantify the situation is part of why I'm asking, asking (and answering) the right questions so we don't get silly answers is the other i…

Having short days in the winter, long days in the summer isnt a UK specific thing. As you get closer to the equator it may become less of a problem as summer air con load overtakes winter heating as the dominant load, but we are talking about large swathes of the planet that will have higher heating demand that can't reasonably be covered by solar power alone.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#74

Post by maxerickson »

WanderPanda wrote: post #20
SECProto wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short term solution: natural gas peaker plants could be repurposed to provide power during lulls in production (better than most fossil fuels, but very expensive and still produce greenhouse gases, so can't be the solution for long) Medium term solution: long-distance transmission, overprovision, and even more grid-scale storage (whole continents don't get cloudy & calm at once for long periods of time) Potential lon…

Wont introducing net energy to the earth add to the warming?

Barely. The temperature of the earth is a function of the balance between energy inputs and energy outputs. The solar input is much much more power than total human utilization, so adding "human" amounts of power won't shift the balance very much.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#75

Post by philipkglass »

darkerside wrote: post #62
mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just armchair analysis, but my perception from easily Googleable sources on mining & resource companies for battery tech is that it doesn’t actually look like a good investment for casual investors. The lithium market seems crazy and susceptible to high volatility from Chinese stockpiles. Meanwhile, battery technologies, even at the high end, are becoming rapidly commoditized and experiencing price wars, mean…

Seems to me that an immature market that is on its way to becoming a commodity is a great time to invest, as opposed to post commoditization

Maybe. That could have described the solar photovoltaic manufacturing business in the first decade of the 21st century, but it would have been a real gamble making money trying to invest in any of the individual companies or even baskets of companies. Commoditization comes quickly, and with "too much" competition even proprietary advances benefit buyers more than manufacturers.

The fracking revolution looks similar, for that matter. So far it has delivered a lot more value to buyers of fossil fuels than to producers.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#76

Post by robocat »

michaelt wrote: post #25
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating. As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter. That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the sta…

> store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter.

I wonder when we will get high voltage transmission systems between the northern and southern hemisphere? Actually solar farms in Southern Spain, Morocco or Arabic countries would make more sense.

Also seasonal thermal energy storage does that. Avoids solar electricity altogether, although has other limitations.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_thermal_energy_stor...

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#77

Post by diafygi »

gwbas1c wrote: post #64
diafygi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, there's plenty of carbon to offset (peakers) by deploying batteries before we have to worry about long term (seasonal) storage. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the electrification of transportation ends up making batteries be the default "long term" storage option by using EVs as flexible grid storage. There's going to be 100x more batteries rolling around than what you'd need to stabilize the grid (e.g.…

Somehow, I think people waking up to find out that their EV doesn't have the charge they expected it to have will put that idea in its place. The idea that someone with an EV will allow the power company to randomly deplete its battery is a fantasy. Edit: We're much more likely to see home standby generators put to that use, or home batteries (connected to solar) put to that use.

Keep in mind that we're talking about single digit percentages of a battery's capacity being used. Also, its likely that many of the EV-to-grid arrangements will be for fleet vehicles (company/city cars, plus self-driving fleets when they happen), and they will be technically sophisticated enough to negotiate that capacity sharing with the grid operators.

So you won't ever actually have a scenario you describe where a private EV will have it's battery depleted.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#78

Post by ridewinter »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #63
dharma1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maxwell, now owned by Tesla. I think Tesla will become a big player in the battery tech space

Maxwell dry battery electrode tech [1] is going to rapidly drive down cell costs (while increasing energy density) for Tesla. I posit this is also how they intend to pack 200kw of storage into the 2020 Roadster. Disclaimer: TSLA investor [1] https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/02/tesla-buys-maxwell-to-...

If this tech allows BEVs a significantly higher range it would be a game changer. Currently the range is about the same as gasoline cars with a longer refueling time. For your average consumer that’s not an improvement. But if I can go 800 miles per charge all the sudden my BEV looks like an iPhone X compared to your flipphone traditional vehicle.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#79

Post by ZeroGravitas »

benj111 wrote: post #73
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire UK energy use is about 2% of the world total. So I'm guessing that the storage needs of your specific (and oddly non-grid connected) home is only a small fraction of that and doesn't affect the larger, global, back of the envelope figure I'm looking for. Using numbers to quantify the situation is part of why I'm asking, asking (and answering) the right questions so we don't get silly answers is the other i…

Having short days in the winter, long days in the summer isnt a UK specific thing. As you get closer to the equator it may become less of a problem as summer air con load overtakes winter heating as the dominant load, but we are talking about large swathes of the planet that will have higher heating demand that can't reasonably be covered by solar power alone.

If you could put some kind of number on how much of a not-UK thing it was on a global scale, that would answer my original question.

Like, apoarently air con is currently 10% of all electricity and set to grow. 10 AC units will be sold every second for the next 30 years.

It seems solar plus batteries has that covered, but I'd be interested to know the ratios.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#80

Post by merrymoccasin »

iams- wrote: post #66
volak wrote: post #31

No companies listed in article - anyone have a list of companies developing new battery technology? Been something I've tried researching in the past with little luck

In the united states the main commercial option for non-lithium batteries is Nant who is developing zinc-air batteries (but for usage alongside lithium) Then there is Redflow out of Australia and Voltstorage in Germany. Not sure on vanadium flow batteries

I worked for a vanadium flow battery startup which went out of business. Vanadium provides a higher degree of safety due to the chemistry not being flammable. The chemistry also cycles (charges and discharges) without degradation in energy storage capacity. However, vanadium flow batteries are far less energy dense, have moving parts (pumps), and a poor track record of reliability. There was a lot of interest in vanadium flow batteries when Li-Ion was way more expensive, but now that prices have plummeted (and will continue to do so) I don't see much of a future outside of certain applications.
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