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How the Stock Market Works

shashankr.me

71–73 of 73 posts

Re: How the Stock Market Works

#71

“It’s a zero-sum game, because there are always winners and losers in the stock market.” Is this true, outside of options? Most people are long and the stock market has always been on an uptrend.

This is definitely not true. In a zero-sum game, every bit of profit one person makes comes from the pocket of the counterparty. A stock option is a zero-sum proposition: at the expiration of the option, one party ends up “in the money”, the other party is “out of the money” by the same amount.

Stocks are not a zero-sum game. They have sustained value, so when I sell you a share of stock, you get the share, and I get money equal to the value of the stock.

One might argue that day trading is roughly a zero-sum game, if we make the simplifying but inaccurate assumption that the values of stocks don’t change across a trading session, and assuming that everyone goes home each night with all positions closed out.

Re: How the Stock Market Works

#72
post #32

I was expecting something a lot more detailed. I got to the end and was wondering if this was the first part of a series, since it's nowhere near "everything" anyone would want to know about the stock market. It's barely an introduction. Then there are the inaccuracies. Zero-sum game? No. Derivatives are "a bet on the rate of change" in value? No. Brokers "help you execute a trade at the best possible price"? Well...…

The very first line:

> This is Part 1 of a series. I am not claiming to be an expert by any means, this is just an effort for me to internalize things I’ve learnt.

Re: How the Stock Market Works

#73

“It’s a zero-sum game, because there are always winners and losers in the stock market.” Is this true, outside of options? Most people are long and the stock market has always been on an uptrend.

If the stock market appreciates 7% per year on average, then it appreciates by 0.02% per day and you're effectively making $0.20 per $1000 per day with massive volatility. $0.20 is so miniscule, it's not even large enough for a restaurant tip. It's not that uncommon to see large swings in either direction; The market went -4.85% just this week. The stock market is not a zero sum game over the long term (10+ years), but on a day-to-day basis, the market is effectively a zero sum game. If you manage to make more than the market's return, it's because some poor guy or gall out there made less than the market's return.

Fun fact: over 60% of the trade volume on the stock markets comes from bots. If you have enough of a superiority illusion to think your daytrading game these days can outplay the MIT PH.D Quant traders that wrote HFT bots for hedge funds, then you're in for a surprise.

I don't have the exact Peter Lynch quote but he said something to the effect that any period of less than two years in the stock market and you're basically entering a casino. Any period of greater than 2 years and you're investing.

Some other investor said that you should give a company enough time to use and generate a return from the money it received from selling it's stock before you fundamentally expect to see the returns.

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