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Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

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Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#71

Post by jklinger410 »

MegaButts wrote: post #45
ajross wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That twitter thread (which is great, btw, everyone interested in this stuff should be following @greentheonly) doesn't remotely substantiate "Shadow Mode isn't real, and that Tesla is outright lying". I don't know the extent of public statements about it, but comparing collected data like the stuff detailed there to driver behavior is certainly feasible and almost certainly being done. It's also likely true that the…

I was stating his opinion, but I'll just quote him directly: > We'll start with the bitter truth. The "shadow driver that just sits there in the computer comparing notes and sending discrepancies and interesting events to Tesla" is a myth. I used to think people just misunderstood Elon, but now I believe Tesla lies about it on purpose I really did not mean for my comment to be inflammatory (hence the disclaimer and i…

The thread then goes on to not support this statement very well. Including a Tesla employee disagreeing with him directly.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#72

Post by eanzenberg »

eanzenberg wrote: post #57

Sidenote: I can't stand the ipad in the middle of Tesla cars (and other carmakers who choose this path). I got a BMW because of the sheer usefulness of physical buttons while driving / keeping eyes on the road.

Guess people like fiddling through an ipad while driving a 2 ton machine at highway speeds? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Looks like Tesla drivers are becoming the "Toyota Camry/Prius" drivers of the past.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#73

Post by WheelsAtLarge »

I know at least one person that's decided not to buy a Tesla simply because their future is so murky and is not sure if they will be around for repairs. That's a problem they need to tackle now before it spirals out of control.

Also, it seems to me that Tesla should work with one of the big three automakers on manufacturing. Tesla has spent a lot of resources reinventing car manufacturing and yet they can't produce a vehicle that meets their needs. They need to focus on the high tech aspects and leave the mundane manufacturing to experts.

At the very least, Musk should trust his manufacturing experts on how to produce a car rather than try to make every decision by himself. He's a great marketer and should focus on that role and leave the rest to the experts.

Too bad they can't lower the cost of batteries enough. If they did that, they could lower the price of the car to a point where it would be a no brainer to buy one.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#75

Post by toomuchtodo »

navigatesol wrote: post #58
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China GF is GF3. GF2 is in Buffalo, NY (old SolarCity facility, which also manufactures Supercharger station hardware). I can't speak to how GF3 capex is being accounted for, but competition was fierce to provide financing to Tesla [1]. China pulled out all of the stops not just for permitting and financing, but also construction (GF3 is already having Model 3 production line equipment installed, after breaking groun…

Linking to a Teslarati article, that's a laugh. When will you realize that this company makes things up at every turn? They are cutting capex, again. They are slashing prices on cars with "unlimited demand". Let's see in a year how it's going,and what excuse you and they will have.

Is that Youtube video fake? The ~90k vehicles Tesla sold this quarter? "Fake news"? I have no excuses, just proof of hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles on the road, and billions of dollars worth of manufacturing capacity running.

Come back in a year we shall.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#76

Post by slg »

dyarosla wrote: post #54
slg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This report is bad news for Tesla, but I think it disproves the "demand problem" narrative. Tesla delivered more cars than they could produce this quarter. Both delivery and production numbers were at record highs. The average sale price of the Model 3 remained stable. Meanwhile they are nearing production of the Model Y which is likely depressing demand of both the Model 3 and Model X. Once the Model Y is available,…

Agree with most of the above except for the "Model Y likely depressing demand"- is there any indication that the Model Y is in demand at all?

I personally don't have hard data on it, which is why I used qualifiers such as "likely" and "people expected". Tesla has repeatedly said they expect higher demand for the Y and that fits with what usually sells well in the market. Plus it addresses common complaints about the 3 being "too small" and about the X being "too expensive".

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#77

Post by slg »

new_realist wrote: post #53
slg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This report is bad news for Tesla, but I think it disproves the "demand problem" narrative. Tesla delivered more cars than they could produce this quarter. Both delivery and production numbers were at record highs. The average sale price of the Model 3 remained stable. Meanwhile they are nearing production of the Model Y which is likely depressing demand of both the Model 3 and Model X. Once the Model Y is available,…

ASP on the Model 3 has been falling quarter over quarter, as have margins. S and X demand and prices have dropped significantly. Model 3 prices dropped yet again less than a week ago.

Your comment directly conflicts with what was stated in this letter:

>During the quarter, a majority of orders continued to be for a long-range battery option and the Model 3 average selling price (ASP) was stable at approximately $50,000. At the same time, manufacturing costs continued to decline.

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#78

Post by skybrian »

jtchang wrote: post #68

Being able to test your code out in the real world and dark launch a feature gives Tesla a ridiculous advantage. No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Plus they can even tell if the decision the neural net made was wrong because I assume even Tesla knows you got into an accident. And this over thousands of cars. The speed at which they are collecting data is unprecedented.

Well, maybe. Since most of this data will be very repetitive, I don't think we can know for sure how much it helps?

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#79

Post by almost_usual »

toopricey wrote: post #66
almost_usual wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up 8%? It's down 10%+, what made you think it would go up? Rest of the market ripped up? The S&P is up 20% this year while Tesla has gone down 20%. Edit: >The opportunity cost of owning it has been huge while the rest of the market ripped up The S&P is up over 50% in five years. TSLA could go up 20% tomorrow (and ignore today's after hours change) and the S&P would still be outperforming TSLA.

He was using "ripped up" as a positive term, I assume synonymous with "Shot up" or "went up". You're agreeing with him, both of yall are saying Tesla has massively underperformed the market

That makes a lot more sense, I interpreted "ripped up" as "torn to shreds".

Re: Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

#80

Post by icelancer »

leesec wrote: post #60
bllguo wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

contentious? Genuinely curious for a source here. everything ive ever seen says Waymo is far in the lead, though I dont work in this space.

The contentious part is that Waymo doesn't have a product yet. It's easy to imagine something is better when you can't actually use it. In truth there are only 3 self driving products that I know of available today. Tesla's Autopilot, GM's Supercruise (only on CT6), and commma.ai's openpilot. Of those Autopilot is easily the best. I never know why a source would matter in these cases as the writers of these sources u…

>> It's easy to imagine something is better when you can't actually use it.

Yup. Carmack illustrated this very well in his interviews when he would not talk about unreleased games vs. Doom/Quake/whatever. He always said: "It's really easy to be the best graphics engine when it isn't available to the public."

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