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China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

wsj.com

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Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#71

Post by throwaway434 »

stunt wrote: post #49
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Don’t underestimate what media can do. One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow. Obviously there are more than one reason on the table. One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons) Second is of course now some ot…

Now China’s censorship of foreign “news’ makes sense.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#72

Post by Gibbon1 »

tepidandroid wrote: post #60
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

It's like practical fusion, always 5-10 years away. The reasoning appears to be that since the Chinese refuse to follow the western consensus, their economy must then collapse.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#73

Post by deehouie »

LiquidSky wrote: post #69
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Leave it to the NYT to show us the evils of the NYT, I guess. But isn't it all about timing? You could have said a similar thing about articles predicting the end of the 2000s-era growth in the US up until 2007-2008. They're so obviously wrong until they're not.

If you buy one lottery ticket everyday from the day you're born until the day you die, you may win it big, if you're lucky.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#74

Post by factsaresacred »

deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

The author of that piece, Philip. P. Pan, wrote one of the most remarkable books I've read on China: Out of Mao's shadow - https://www.amazon.com/Out-Maos-Shadow-Struggle-China-ebook/...

It's a gem for those seeking to understand - and distinguish between - China, the country and its people, and China, the State.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#75

Post by realusername »

jdietrich wrote: post #44
ajflores1604 wrote: post #2

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

A lot of "ghost cities" that were reported on in the Western press are now thriving communities. Although some major property development schemes do end up becoming white elephants (particularly in the poorer north), most "ghost cities" aren't abandoned, they're just in the process of becoming occupied. Properties in China are normally sold as a bare undecorated shell, which makes new developments look derelict to we…

> Clearly many of these projects are of dubious quality, but that problem is by no means unique to China.

The cases I saw were more than dubious quality, the houses have completely fallen apart in only 2 years, there's definitely some "get rich quick" resell scam business going on in some places.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#76

Post by Animats »

China seems to have found a workable system. It's not Marxist. It's not entirely capitalist. It's not democratic. But it has done pretty well.

Arguably, China has a more effective system of capital investment than the US does. The financial sector in the US is sort of a self perpetuating money machine, only vaguely connected to actually making stuff. (The biggest use of corporate debt is stock buybacks, for example.) That's not the case in China.

The US doesn't have an explicit industrial policy because the political system is too gridlocked to run one. China does. So does Japan, although less so than in the days of MITI. (The US does have an industrial policy, expressed through the tax code: services good, manufacturing bad. Borrowing good, dividends bad. Those are probably backwards.)

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#77

Post by clydethefrog »

deehouie wrote: post #65
tepidandroid wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

Can you pls post some links. I'm a die-hard collector of these articles.

https://www.economist.com/search?q=china%20economy%20falling

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#78

Post by jariel »

gcatalfamo wrote: post #51

I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen. As a side note, I have visited many companies while there and the Tencent HQ was the most awe-inspiring building, leaving the Bay Area architecture and building amenities looking incredibly dull.

"I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen."

What you 'saw' is besides the point.

The official GDP numbers show the economy slowing down to quickly.

This is not a 'prediction' - it's happening.

Moreover, those numbers are grossly inflated. Objective measurement puts China at about 4.5%, which is even lower.

China is slowing down and will not leap into 1st world territory as did Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea, unless something fundamentally changes.

China will likely be a major superpower, but won't develop the kind of GDP/capita we see in other rich nations.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#79

Post by goatinaboat »

gcatalfamo wrote: post #51

I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen. As a side note, I have visited many companies while there and the Tencent HQ was the most awe-inspiring building, leaving the Bay Area architecture and building amenities looking incredibly dull.

How much of China did you see? You could not gain a meaningful understanding of even a much smaller country from visiting a single city. E.g. NYC is not America, so Shenzen is not China.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#80

Post by pnathan »

vajaya wrote: post #52

China collapse has been predicted by china expert for at least 2 decades. I don't understand why people can still be this delusional at this moment.

This is my strong takeaway on China economy articles- most are enormously wrong in their predictions, and not simply in a few random details; fundamentally they have been wrong about the China system collapsing for years and years and years.

I mean, sure, some day things will change substantially - change happens and the decades of doomsays will claim they were right all along. But that's stopped clock thinking. :-/

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