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Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

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Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#71

Post by tptacek »

trhway wrote: post #68
yareally wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe much of that drop is due to the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea, followed by the invasion of Donbass. The drop off can be seen in the link below starting in 2014 when the invasion was initiated: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?location... You're technically correct (depending on where you find the GDP data), but I don't believe it would be the case if the invasion and annexatio…

>The numbers prior to 2014 show Ukraine with a much higher GDP than Belarus Not really. Even back then the Ukraine per capita was still noticeably below Belarus - having 4.5x population it had 3x GDP at best. Anyway, my point is that the macro-economical/macro-social things like for example per-capita GDP or government style have nothing to do with cancer rates there (overwise Poland, Russia, Ukraine would have huge…

Here's a pretty detailed report on health care in Belarus from 2013:

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/232835/H...

Of note:

* Rates of smoking in Belarus are also high.

* The indirect impact of Chernobyl includes a lack of health care facilities in the (rural) regions most impacted.

If the stat you're working from was breast cancer mortality, I'd push back harder, but I don't think that's what you're saying.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#72

Post by amatecha »

keldaris wrote: post #24
ghshephard wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question about the series, when something particularly unrealistic occurs, like the movie trope of three heroes volunteering to open the sluice gates, and having to swim through water, and having their lamps all go out at the same time - that happened - is whether the mini series is showing something unbelievable, but true, or something that just didn't happen. By and large, the creators always tried to be biased…

The three workers wading through water to open the sluice gates did indeed happen, but it's worth noting that all of them survived just fine and at least two were still alive as recently as a few years ago. I agree, though, I love how many tiny things that are actually true they managed to squeeze in there. As another example, the part where the firefighter's wife bribes her way into the closed hospital in Moscow - t…

"all of them survived just fine and at least two were still alive as recently as a few years ago." People keep saying this... any citation or link you happen to know of offhand? I've heard only exactly the opposite in various articles, that the three guys died within weeks.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#73

Post by dralley »

HeWhoLurksLate wrote: post #58
baybal2 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man, 5 megaton tnt is like ~25 exajoules. Thermal energy of 100 tons of 2000C uranium is like 0.25 terajoules... Somebody missed at least 5 zeroes And it was later found that only few percents of the fuel melted, so very likely 7 zeroes... And given that it is not possible for anywhere close to 10% of thermal energy of such huge, solid body to go into steam flash, add 2 more zeros.

This is the worst case scenario, right?

The worst case scenario is still orders of magnitude less than "5 megaton explosion". Somebody's math was wrong, or lost in translation. Either the math was done wrong, not done at all, or the figures got messed up in translation.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#74

Post by Cynddl »

I'm confused, did they legally entered the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone? I was told that biking into the Chernobyl Zone, e.g., is forbidden due to the risk of contamination when you exit.

Edit: Indeed it was not. From Instagram, “we spent the night tiptoeing around razor wire fences, coasting through sleeping security checkpoints, and riding frantically away from some surprisingly alert and vigilant guard dogs.” This validates what I know from Ukraine. Entering the exclusion zone is a very lucrative touristic business, with prices around $100-200 for a single day trip in a group.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#75

Post by dralley »

keldaris wrote: post #29
gukov wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The show's writer actually reduced the number: https://www.reddit.com/r/TVChernobyl/comments/boo19f/did_she...

It's actually wrong on several levels. First of all, in the show the characters explicitly state that they are referring to a steam explosion. A steam explosion in the megaton range isn't just implausible, it's patently absurd. The upper bound on the real number is lower by 4-5 orders of magnitude. Don't get me wrong - it would still have been extremely disasterous and could have increased the total radionuclide emis…

>That possibility was briefly considered and quickly dismissed as improbable in the extreme, which it was.

A nuclear explosion would require Uranium enriched to at least 85%, whereas the fuel in RBMK reactors was only enriched to 2%. It's not just unlikely it's actually impossible.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#76

Post by abalone »

dweekly wrote: post #5

The pictures are lovely and the reflections profound. But much of the cited data here appears wrong. For instance, the article states (italicized): "six hundred helicopter pilots were killed" and yet it was only 600 helicopter pilots who _flew_ liquidator missions[1], two of which were killed in an piloting accident and none were registered killed from immediate radiation exposure[2], though at least one eventually d…

> But much of the cited data here appears wrong.

I don't think this is a fair assessment. First of all you've ignored the most significant claims, that Chernobyl was very nearly a much worse disaster that "would have leveled Kiev and Minsk, and would have ejected the nuclear material from the other 3 Chernobyl reactors with a force that would have rendered much of Europe uninhabitable for hundreds of years." Or it nearly irradiated "groundwater for 50 million people" or that 50,000 people "were given 2 hours to pack whatever they could carry and get on a bus" and never come back.

On these points alone it would be inaccurate to say "much" of his data is "wrong" -- that's most of the data data right there and it is unchallenged.

Instead you've focused on whether it was 600K or merely 300K liquidators, or whether the 600 pilots were "registered" killed or merely suspected. These are relatively minor points (compared to ending large swaths of civilization) and even your own sources note that the figures are controversial and give ranges. While I would agree that Marlinspike has favored the worst case end of the spectrum here and his piece ought to cite sources, I think you have misrepresented the certainty of the evidence.

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#77

Post by poisonarena »

keldaris wrote: post #24
ghshephard wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question about the series, when something particularly unrealistic occurs, like the movie trope of three heroes volunteering to open the sluice gates, and having to swim through water, and having their lamps all go out at the same time - that happened - is whether the mini series is showing something unbelievable, but true, or something that just didn't happen. By and large, the creators always tried to be biased…

The three workers wading through water to open the sluice gates did indeed happen, but it's worth noting that all of them survived just fine and at least two were still alive as recently as a few years ago. I agree, though, I love how many tiny things that are actually true they managed to squeeze in there. As another example, the part where the firefighter's wife bribes her way into the closed hospital in Moscow - t…

I like the naked miners

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#78

Post by poisonarena »

gk1 wrote: post #13

There's a YouTuber who's been traveling around Belarus and recording his daily adventures. Many of the videos are from inside the areas affected by Chernobyl. They're fun to watch: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqWdYjn21PdHRvHB7Nrwl...

That guy made a really cringey gopnick video, and comes off as a weird sexpat to me

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#79

Post by dmix »

> Standing in the bleachers, listening to the Pripyat municipal overture of resounding bird song, the only thing we could do was stare out at the trees and wonder "how long until New York looks like this?"

I'm curious what the author meant by this. Does he mean how long would it take NYC to look like Chernobyl after a similar nuclear/natural accident happened? Or do they have a fatalistic outlook on the future due to some environmental, economic, or political worldview?

Also the end of the story mentions there are no obvious monuments to the people who worked to help rescue people but there is one in the very city he was reporting from dedicated to the firefighters and others involved: https://oddviser.com/ukraine/chernobyl/memorial

Re: Scene report from the Chernobyl Zone

#80

Post by jpindar »

ghshephard wrote: post #21
SomeOldThrow wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get the feeling it's very accurate, but it is very entertaining. EDIT: the accuracy I am referring to is about the actual sequence of events of the plot, which I understand to be simplified as people replying have pointed out :)

You should listen to the Chernobyl podcast to get a sense of how insanely dedicated they are to capturing every possible detail They took a few dramatic licences (a few characters are composites) - but, by and large, the stories are told lockstep in as close to a factual account as can be told.

Also the series creator, Craig Mazin, is active on Twitter as @clmazin and on reddit as clmazin.
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