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Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

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Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#71
post #17

How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable. These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes. October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec... June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread..…

[deleted]

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#72
> "We have lost sight of the fact that a recession has cleansing properties, helping to right the wrong of the billions of dollars allocated to bad businesses while getting people refocused on investing in profitable enterprises."

If this were true, loss-making companies would never IPO. There is such a thing as a normal boom and bust cycle. The "bust" portion is the recession, the hangover after the bull market effects of the US tax cuts have petered out.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#74

Things that keep me up at night as a software contractor/freelancer: if there's a recession, are contractors the first to go? One counter-argument is that contractors can be a cheaper way for companies to build products (since it's not full time), which might mean companies favor contractors. On the other hand, companies who are reluctant to lay off full-time staff may start by canceling contract relationships.

In my experience, contracting has been a leading indicator with both contraction and expansion. Contractors get cut before full-time, but when things are still shaky later, contractors get brought on first before the company is willing to increase full-time headcount.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#75

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

The bond market, and international stock market are less correlated with US large cap stocks. Historically though you are still better off investing in the S&P 500 or similar, it is virtually impossible to know what the market will start falling and when to sell, or when it is at the bottom and to start buying again. Time in market beats timing the market.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#76

Things that keep me up at night as a software contractor/freelancer: if there's a recession, are contractors the first to go? One counter-argument is that contractors can be a cheaper way for companies to build products (since it's not full time), which might mean companies favor contractors. On the other hand, companies who are reluctant to lay off full-time staff may start by canceling contract relationships.

I worked a long time in that space and I can confirm that they are typically the first to go, because 1) it's very easy to let them go, 2) they're usually also much more expensive than your everyday line staff

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#77

If you could know a recession was inevitable some time soon from publicly available information then that recession wouldn't happen in the predicted time frame. Everybody would see it coming, take their money out of the market, and it would happen instantly.

That's not what happened ten years ago in many different countries.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#78
post #4

Would it be wise to wait a year before buying a house? If a recession hits it might turn my areas buyers market into a fire-sale. I guess if the fed isn’t raising rates then it’s not an issue. Waiting would also allow someone to increase their down payment.

My Econ game isn't as strong as it used to be, and this is by no means financial advice, just some spitballing... I'd guess interest rates will rise, hopefully not like they did in the 80s, but I think Trump has been running the economy too hot... meaning inflation and your payments will go up. We want people to save (invest) not spend (consume) to fix this upcoming case (if I understand it correctly). As a result, I…

Historical, but I do not see an upward swing in inflation. https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentIn...

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#79
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Into a piece of yellow metal. Edit. More background on that: In 2014, after years and years of my parents droning "think about buying a house," I finally decided to teach my parents a lesson, and show them just how bad their investment advice is. So in the end, I lost around 53 thousand dollars in total from FX, fees, lawyers, drop of property value, and my ability to sleep well at night. And in 2016, I got kicked ou…

No idea why you are downvoted. Indisputably the safest investment for several millenia running.

Gold is extremely volatile. You can lose 50% or more in the medium term if you buy when its at an all time high.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#80

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

If it were my money, I’d be all in with stocks that have exposure to China trade war fears. When the current strife passes, they’ll rocket back up. I tend to buy the fear and sell the joy (if I sell at all.) But that’s just me.
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