Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market • Hacker News Board

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#71

Post by Nasrudith » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:35 PM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #18

Phrodo_00 wrote: post #2

While the article did a lot of pointing at men not working, it did little to show what the Hole in the "Hot U.S. Market" was. Maybe the people they were talking about would benefit from that information.

The hole is the 500k or so men who aren't working now (in the 25-34 year old demographic) who were working before the recession (well, the calculated amount based on percentage of that demographic who were working pre-recession versus who are working now). While other demographics (35-44 yo men and women, 25-34 yo women) have recovered (or done better) than pre-recession rates. And given the overall low unemployment…

I wonder about the distribution within. Men are known to have a higher standard deviation in IQ. Perhaps it is a sign of hidden if not disabilities relative appitude disadvantages or relative socialization maladjustment - no judgement as to who is wrong if any.

I personally had one hell of a time going through the hiring process despite my credentials.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#72

Post by karles » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:36 PM UTC

roel_v wrote: post #61

MIKarlsen wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I'm from (Denmark), most people start university when they're 18-22, and then you have to do a bachelors degree (3 years) and a master degree (2 years). Often times, people spend more time on their degrees because they take extra internships. Based on the 50 people I had a some-what close relation to while I did my degree, most of them where 26-27 when they got their masters degree. You can see a figure from mi…

Why would a sizeable portion of people start at 22? 18-19 plus 4 or 5 (there are plenty of 1-year masters - maybe not in Denmark, but elsewhere in Europe) is 24 at worst. It's true that 10 or 20 years ago it was normal to spend 6 years on a 4 year study. Times have changed. And if they haven't yet in Denmark, they will in time.

I'm just stating the facts. But let me explain how the educational trajectory looks like. Sorry I don't know the correct terms for all the different levels of education. But here goes:

Age 2-6: Daycare/kindergarden

6-16/17: Grade School (folkeskolen)

16/17-19/20: High School (gymnasiet)

19/20-20/23: One or two years off where people work/travel/move out from their parents etc. (as you can see, we're close to the 22 year average here)

20/23-25/28: 5 years of university - add one year for the standard extra interships and you have 6 years of university

Fastest possible way: Start school at 5, skip 10th grade, just straight to High School aged 15, finish high school aged 18, straight to university and study for 5 years (fastest possible degree in the regular system), and you're 23 by the time you get out of the system.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#73

Post by thrower123 » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:38 PM UTC

Is there a good explanation for the bar chart that shows labor force participation being down or flat for just about everyone other than young women and old men?

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#74

Post by forgottenpass » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:39 PM UTC

lawn wrote: post #51

ben_jones wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm looking at a $400 bill after insurance for a 15 minute doctor's visit. Nothing fancy he took my blood pressure and listened to my lungs and sent me on my way. I'm fortunate that I can easily pay this, but what if I was living paycheck to paycheck? It would crush me. When wealth is so fleeting as to be taken away by such a minuscule stroke of bad luck, why would people bother chasing it? I'm literally going to hav…

There surely is a middle ground here between living paycheck to paycheck and not making work the most important thing in your life.

Conceptually possible, but in practice what market forces ensure that such a group exists?

I know a non-zero number of people that both work paycheck to paycheck and also make work the most important part of their lives. That's not to say it's mutually exclusive with 'neither' group, but I don't think it's impossible for the 'neither' group to shrivel into non-existence.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#75

Post by lazerpants » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:40 PM UTC

jfk13 wrote: post #55

eloff wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to talk about some gender differences that are true in general, and I could back up with citations if I had the time. But remember everybody is their own special case - things that are true in general for a population don't necessarily describe individuals of that population. 1) Women tend to marry up. An accomplished woman with a great job wants a man with a better job. That shrinks the pool a lot for her!…

While I recognise a lot of truth in this, I don't think there's ever been a time when I'd have wanted to date or marry a woman 20 years my junior. I have some lovely friends in that range, but they're socio-culturally so different from me (as a reasonably successful, well-off middle-aged man) that it's hard to see them as partner material.

I think what eloff hits on is a gating problem in the choices that each sex typically makes in eloff's construction of their interactions.

Successful women want to marry someone as or more successful, making their pool smaller. Men don't tend to worry as much about marrying someone as or more successful as them, so as you move up the "success" distribution, women have ever fewer choices, and men even more, causing a lot of mismatching problems for women above [x] percentile.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#76

Post by panarky » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:41 PM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #60

panarky wrote: post #42

It's not perplexing at all. People forget that the market for labor is just like other markets. If you're selling a thing and the market price is lower than the thing is worth, then you don't sell it. If the minimum wage kept up with the increase in worker productivity over the last 50 years, today's minimum wage would be about $19.50. So workers who refuse to take dead-end jobs are simply rational economic actors re…

> If employers have job openings they can't fill, while workers are idle because they won't work so cheap, then shouldn't the market-clearing wage increase? If not, what's preventing it? Other workers will work cheap. See, it doesn't matter what you think your time is worth. The supply of people willing to work is what determines what it is worth. Minimum wage jobs can literally be done by almost anyone who is not me…

The key point is that employers have job openings they can't fill [1].

If you are correct that other workers are willing to work that cheap, then the jobs would be filled.

Workers exist but are unwilling to work that cheap, so they're idle while employers have unfilled jobs.

Whenever you see a news story that says "employers having difficulties finding qualified workers," you can safely replace that phrase with "employers are unwilling to pay the market rate for labor."

[1] U.S. job openings hit record high of 7.14 million https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-job-op...

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#77

Post by Wowfunhappy » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:42 PM UTC

k__ wrote: post #33

MIKarlsen wrote: post #19

"If you get to the point where you’re turning 30, you’ve never held a real job and you don’t have a college education, then it is very hard to recover at that point." I've raised this point to a fair few of my friends and colleagues recently. I think it is becoming increasingly hard to contribute to society, because everything is so gosh-darn technical. Companies _scream_ for developers - but not junior developers, o…

On the other hand, how many people can you train to become programmers?

Most people, I'd imagine. Given enough time.

But I don't know how many you could train within a cost-effective timeframe.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#78

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:45 PM UTC

MIKarlsen wrote: post #54

k__ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, how many people can you train to become programmers?

Are you asking if it would be feasible for companies to take in well-educated people, and teaching them the programming/dev-craft? I don't know. But right now, companies are trying to solve the problem in other ways, which is ultimately not addressing their core need. I just feel like some sort of educational system (bootcamp'ish) would be able to make a good business case for most companies.

When I finished my undergrad education, my first job was with a big consulting firm. Early 1990s. They did have a 6 or 8 week "boot camp" and they taught new hires how to program. Many of them had had no significant prior background in programming.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#79

Post by lordnacho » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:46 PM UTC

roel_v wrote: post #61

MIKarlsen wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I'm from (Denmark), most people start university when they're 18-22, and then you have to do a bachelors degree (3 years) and a master degree (2 years). Often times, people spend more time on their degrees because they take extra internships. Based on the 50 people I had a some-what close relation to while I did my degree, most of them where 26-27 when they got their masters degree. You can see a figure from mi…

Why would a sizeable portion of people start at 22? 18-19 plus 4 or 5 (there are plenty of 1-year masters - maybe not in Denmark, but elsewhere in Europe) is 24 at worst. It's true that 10 or 20 years ago it was normal to spend 6 years on a 4 year study. Times have changed. And if they haven't yet in Denmark, they will in time.

> Why would a sizeable portion of people start at 22? 18-19 plus 4 or 5 (there are plenty of 1-year masters - maybe not in Denmark, but elsewhere in Europe) is 24 at worst.

Later start in school, potential extra year 10 before high school, something called "højskole" which is potentially another year or so after high school (look up a guy called NFS Grundvig to explain this), conscription/volunteer for the military for some people.

Most long degrees are 5 years from high school to masters, 3 + 2 officially, but you generally don't want just the 3.

Also it's a reasonably common thing for people to get delayed. Failed exams, stress, even babies. Government is looking a lot at how to get people through quickly.

Re: Millennial Men Leave Perplexing Hole in Hot U.S. Job Market

#80

Post by geezerjay » Wed, Nov 07, 2018, 7:47 PM UTC

roel_v wrote: post #61

MIKarlsen wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I'm from (Denmark), most people start university when they're 18-22, and then you have to do a bachelors degree (3 years) and a master degree (2 years). Often times, people spend more time on their degrees because they take extra internships. Based on the 50 people I had a some-what close relation to while I did my degree, most of them where 26-27 when they got their masters degree. You can see a figure from mi…

Why would a sizeable portion of people start at 22? 18-19 plus 4 or 5 (there are plenty of 1-year masters - maybe not in Denmark, but elsewhere in Europe) is 24 at worst. It's true that 10 or 20 years ago it was normal to spend 6 years on a 4 year study. Times have changed. And if they haven't yet in Denmark, they will in time.

You've just asserted that college students in Denmark should spend less time finishing a degree, but provided no reason or substance to back your assertion.