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Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

nytimes.com

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Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#71

Post by sethrin »

Alex3917 wrote: post #45
Qwertie wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

> I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not. So at the software developer level of the stack, what we get are new tools for managing reputation, identity, authentication, transparency, accountability, etc. If you think of people as a graph of nodes, these tools enable novel patterns of trust and collaboration between individuals that aren't possible today. What this means is th…

While the 2008 crash can be described as an informational failure, my understanding was that this information was deliberately omitted, not just unread; it was fraud, not just a systemic failure. Also, you seem to be describing blockchain costs as being minimal in some sense. My suspicion is that this is less true than you think. Currently, blockchains have very high energy usage. If you are saying we need to structure society around this, then you are asking us to absorb whatever externalities go with it. The people who live around the Colombia River, where the cheap hydro power is, are getting a bit tired of BitCoin mining. I'm sure there are things which can ameliorate this issue. I'm willing to be convinced that the problems of blockchains are surmountable, but your argument seems more enthusiastic than credible.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#72

Post by lsalvatore »

shawn wrote: post #46
Qwertie wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

Alex isn't wrong. But I don't think it's blockchain. It's decentralization in general. For example, I want to release a tool that can mod old ROMs. I cannot legally sell this. This is a new idea, I'd like to make a living with it, but I can't. And why not? Because the concept of IP has turned us into servants. Meanwhile you have youtube series like Freeman's Mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SQhfkpX9bc making a k…

Maybe those "fucked" artists should invent their own characters. You know, being creative instead of copying other people's ideas.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#73

Post by jryan49 »

dosy wrote: post #47

Does HN qualify as "social media"? We are not anywhere near "Peak Social Media". Otherwise investor valuations would not be what they are. Even discounting they can predict the future, Zuck hasn't even got started on his VR/AR "ready player 1" social network dream yet, decentralized social media hasn't had its try for the title yet, and the non-social big 5 are still waiting for FB weakness for their chance to strike…

Investor validations of tech before the bubble wasn't super accurate. I mean facebook lost 20% of it's value in a day, how does that not scream speculative bubble?

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#74

Post by Phantasmagoria »

benwerd wrote: post #48
Alex3917 wrote: post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

Unmet (created) needs.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#75

Post by ngngngng »

godzillabrennus wrote: post #37
drb91 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you're using anything with ads, expect the experience to suck.

Snap's UI is horrendous and it has nothing to do with ads. Kids can invest innumerable hours to find and utilize all the hidden ways to interact but your average adult is just going to do the basics and will put it down. That's fine. Kids are often the market these social media companies target as they launch anyway.

Snaps ui is one step above a text based terminal, I just have to learn all the swipes and taps and menu layouts through trial and error.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#76

Post by CamperBob2 »

leon_sbt wrote: post #69

I really wish social media would "peak" to towards meeting people in real life semi-spontaneously. No profiles, no media uploads, no digital showboating. The best relationships I have with other people fall in this category. Real life,common interests,no digital uploads. Just add attributes of your geolocation and hobbies [biking, yoga,tensorflow,etc] or let it crawl your digital profile(s) to autobuild your attribut…

This does seem like a powerful idea. The problem of networking friends, family, and co-workers has more or less been solved, but the problem of putting together complete strangers with shared interests and coincident physical locality really hasn't even been attacked except in very constrained use cases (i.e., dating services).

It's possible that the next big wave of social networks will be less "Facebook" and more "Spacebook."

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#77

Post by shawn »

lsalvatore wrote: post #72
shawn wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alex isn't wrong. But I don't think it's blockchain. It's decentralization in general. For example, I want to release a tool that can mod old ROMs. I cannot legally sell this. This is a new idea, I'd like to make a living with it, but I can't. And why not? Because the concept of IP has turned us into servants. Meanwhile you have youtube series like Freeman's Mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SQhfkpX9bc making a k…

Maybe those "fucked" artists should invent their own characters. You know, being creative instead of copying other people's ideas.

Just like Disney did with Alice in Wonderland, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk862BbjWx4

"And now you, dear filmmaker, want to come along and want to make your own version of Star Wars: A New Hope? For shame! That's like stealing food right out of George Lucas' mouth."

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#78

Post by Alex3917 »

sethrin wrote: post #71
Alex3917 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not. So at the software developer level of the stack, what we get are new tools for managing reputation, identity, authentication, transparency, accountability, etc. If you think of people as a graph of nodes, these tools enable novel patterns of trust and collaboration between individuals that aren't possible today. What this means is th…

While the 2008 crash can be described as an informational failure, my understanding was that this information was deliberately omitted, not just unread; it was fraud, not just a systemic failure. Also, you seem to be describing blockchain costs as being minimal in some sense. My suspicion is that this is less true than you think. Currently, blockchains have very high energy usage. If you are saying we need to structu…

> my understanding was that this information was deliberately omitted, not just unread; it was fraud

Debt was fraudulently misrated, so you'd have junk bonds rated as AAA or whatever. But the primary data was all there, so you could actually go visit all of the properties and talk to the owners like they did in The Big Short, it's just that no one did. The people who approved the mortgages also weren't verifying people's incomes, and in some cases were even encouraging them to lie about their incomes. But the primary data was all there, the reason no one audited the primary data was that it was too expensive relative to the payoff. Blockchains can fix this. (The residential real estate market is pretty fragmented so it's unlikely to be one of the first industries to get transformed, it's just an easy to understand example.)

> Currently, blockchains have very high energy usage.

This is really only true for Bitcoin and things modeled after it, where the integrity of the chain is secured by wasting an amount of electricity that's directly proportional to the expected future price. This clearly isn't sustainable so BTC will have to change their POW if they want to be successful. But it's also not an inherent property of blockchains, there are many other blockchains that are already secured differently or are working on novel security mechanisms, but as I said they just need to be proven out over the next few years.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#79

Post by endgame »

Qwertie wrote: post #27
Alex3917 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Web 1.0 lets individuals create and express ideas > Web 2.0 lets groups create and express ideas > Web 3.0 lets societies create and express ideas It's blockchain. Blockchain is what gets us from web 2.0 to web 3.0. The technology is almost here, and after another few years of basic R&D the stuff we're going to be able to start building is going to transform society in ways that are barely even imaginable today.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

It's also a way of doing leaderless agreement about distributed platforms in low-trust environments. I'm no blockchain fanatic, bit ISTM that a decentralised discussion board could require the spending of tokens to make posts. The market should hopefully make the tokens of desirable communities more expensive, which discourages cheap, low-effort posts. AFAICT, before blockchain you could have decentralisation or paid posting but not both.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#80

Post by drb91 »

lsalvatore wrote: post #72
shawn wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alex isn't wrong. But I don't think it's blockchain. It's decentralization in general. For example, I want to release a tool that can mod old ROMs. I cannot legally sell this. This is a new idea, I'd like to make a living with it, but I can't. And why not? Because the concept of IP has turned us into servants. Meanwhile you have youtube series like Freeman's Mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SQhfkpX9bc making a k…

Maybe those "fucked" artists should invent their own characters. You know, being creative instead of copying other people's ideas.

Being creative and copying ideas are not mutually exclusive.

For instance, I love the harry potter universe. I just happen to think that JK Rowling is a terrible writer. I would pay hundreds of dollars for quality fan fiction, ideally licensed or legal. There’s really no mechanism for any human on the planet to tell a story in this universe and widely distribute it legally.

Arguably this is more of an issue with copyright and trademark, but I think there’s a lot of room for art to fluorish if there’s a market not beholden to IP law.

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