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Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

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Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#71

Hypothesis: the "people who get stuff done" are a subset of a larger group with the same personality and talents, but without as much luck. Those other people are known by unprintable names, because they have no great successes to make people ignore the fact that they're jerks.

People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. There are a great many things beyond our control. But we will never stop trying to figure out that one thing we can do by choic…

> People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything.

Except there's a lot more going on here and a lot more at stake. Beliefs about the world, specifically beliefs about, long story short, why bad things happen to good people, can dramatically affect policy decisions and what a given culture considers acceptable. Someone feeling good about themselves is absolutely not a good enough reason to mangle reality. And that seems to be all that this whole mess is about. You want to believe you are in control of your life so you bury everyone else with you when that's absolutely not what we need right now to actually understand why things happen.

Rejection of the influence of randomness means we do not examine or account for said randomness. It means we think safety nets are worthless. It means we vote against free healthcare. It means we leave people to fend for themselves because we convince ourselves that it logically makes sense. If people control everything and if their determination is all they need, then we do not need to help them.

For a large slew of events that can randomly hit a person, there is often a very non-random source. But we are so focused on an individual-based rhetoric that we cannot admit that sometimes people affect others and that is a much bigger lever to pull than trying to convince every individual person to be some sort of a superhero who has no problems.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. There are a great many things beyond our control. But we will never stop trying to figure out that one thing we can do by choic…

> People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. Except there's a lot more going on here and a lot more at stake. Beliefs about the world, specifically beliefs about, long st…

Your remarks in no way fit with anything I am trying to communicate.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#73
post #48
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To outright dismiss the possibility of chance affecting people's lives for a cute one-liner is pretty silly.

To summarize, the link says that luck is real but you are better off thinking that it isn't real since that will affect your behavior in a more positive way. Still not sure I agree in this case (you can think luck is real bit still behave optimally) but it could be a helpful way to think in other scenarios.

I think it's a very poor idea to convince ourselves of falsehoods for personal benefit.

Believing luck is not real pretty much immediately activates the just world hypothesis, which is responsible for some rather awful things happening to people. It's the kind of shallowly selfish, short-term belief set we do not want to have.

It's not just about a given person and how productive they singularly happen to be, why are we focusing on that so much?

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#74
post #2

holy fuck. this is me. .. and half the time i can't tell whether i'm kicking serious ass (rewarded) or causing people trouble (fired)!

Same here. I once had a boss tell me that he never had anyone that he reviewed that had a larger range of good/bad feedback for/about. When I liked my projects and was engaged in the work, I was kicking ass. Otherwise...causing trouble. The solution that I've found is to try to always stay in roles where I really feel engaged and useful.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. Except there's a lot more going on here and a lot more at stake. Beliefs about the world, specifically beliefs about, long st…

Your remarks in no way fit with anything I am trying to communicate.

You're communicating that there are just two dichotomies: either one believes luck is real and so should just do nothing and buy lottery tickets, or one believes it's not real and is doing things that are useful.

Otherwise, I'm not sure what you were aiming at with the lottery ticket example, given that it's pretty much nobody's choice even if they believe in luck.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. There are a great many things beyond our control. But we will never stop trying to figure out that one thing we can do by choic…

> People are endlessly fascinated with the piece of success that we might have some hope of exercising control over. It gives people something constructive to try to work on. This is generally better than hating your life and buying lottery tickets while not bothering to work towards anything. Except there's a lot more going on here and a lot more at stake. Beliefs about the world, specifically beliefs about, long st…

> Except there's a lot more going on here and a lot more at stake. Beliefs about [...] why bad things happen to good people, can dramatically affect policy decisions and what a given culture considers acceptable. Someone feeling good about themselves is absolutely not a good enough reason to mangle reality.

nodnodnod

> Rejection of the influence of randomness means [...] people control everything and if their determination is all they need, then we do not need to help them.

Well, it is complicated and gets very subtle. For every person who is struck by catastrophe through sheer bad luck, there is at least one who is struck by catastrophe after a series of terrible personal choices.

Deciding which is which is not an easy choice. For example, imagine a bush-walker standing at the bottom of a cliff - a rock falls, and kills them. Looks a lot like bad luck. However, in the Australian mining industry, workers are essentially forbidden from standing near cliffs because that sort of thing is /actually quite likely/. Because they deal with the risk all the time, they see it as a choice to made.

Not mangling reality cuts two ways. Just because a choice isn't obvious doesn't mean that decisions don't play a role. In addition we can't attribute success solely to luck. Success strikes randomly in a small pool of people who have the capacity to be successful. That pool is small, and the people in it shouldn't be made responsible for the vagaries of the universe at large.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#77
post #41

Hypothesis: the "people who get stuff done" are a subset of a larger group with the same personality and talents, but without as much luck. Those other people are known by unprintable names, because they have no great successes to make people ignore the fact that they're jerks.

Examples of luck: - Being born into a good family. - Winning the lottery. Luck: Something you cannot affect yourself. If luck is your only game, prepare to be disappointed. Also: 70 percent of lottery winners, end up broke just a few years later. Question: Is having good luck actually bad luck? Or does it trigger bad behaviours that rich people don't have? ... I think this well and truly debunks any notion that luck'…

> Thing is, most people are terribly afraid of the freedom, and – as the example with the lottery winners prove – most can't handle large sums of money anyway.

This hardly proves much since the group of people who buy lottery tickets is self-selecting. A person who understands probability will not be buying a lottery ticket. Most people buying them are not in the best situation.

There's a lot more going on in the world than people who work hard vs people who buy lottery tickets.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#78
post #41

Hypothesis: the "people who get stuff done" are a subset of a larger group with the same personality and talents, but without as much luck. Those other people are known by unprintable names, because they have no great successes to make people ignore the fact that they're jerks.

Examples of luck: - Being born into a good family. - Winning the lottery. Luck: Something you cannot affect yourself. If luck is your only game, prepare to be disappointed. Also: 70 percent of lottery winners, end up broke just a few years later. Question: Is having good luck actually bad luck? Or does it trigger bad behaviours that rich people don't have? ... I think this well and truly debunks any notion that luck'…

> Also: 70 percent of lottery winners, end up broke just a few years later.

This often quoted line is a complete media distortion of what really happens. It is wrong. I highly recommend being skeptical of the misinformation spread by news and looking into the primary sources yourself.

Here’s the Florida study that this line is referring to:

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~cle/laborlunch/hoekstra.pdf

Here’s the actual results of the study:

Results show that although recipients of $50,000 to $150,000 are 50 percent less likely to file for bankruptcy in the two years after winning relative to small winners, they are equally more likely to file three to five years afterward.

First, this study wasn’t people winning millions and blowing it, it’s people winning modest amounts under 200K. Second, they’re not going bankrupt at higher rates than other people, they’re filing less often in the short term, and at the same rates in the long term. In other words, the lottery winnings of $10K - $200K didn’t help their longer term life prospects.

Is that some sort of surprise? Anyone would spend $200K in 5 years.

The winnings did not create higher rates of bankruptcy, and I don’t know right now where the 70% number came from. The number of people who filed for bankruptcy was 5.5%.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#79
post #66
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the rest of those issues can be avoided with adequate business research. That's simply wrong.

If you had an idea to improve on the telegraph that makes it 15% faster for operators, would you start a telegraph business right now? Why or why not?

I don't think i said research was valueless. Certainly risks can be mitigated with research, but I reject that they can be avoided entirely.

If "with adequate business research, those can be avoided" is true, it can only be true as a syllogism where 'adequate' is defined to mean the research necessary not to fail, and any company which fails hasn't done 'adequate' research.

Re: Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done (2012) [pdf]

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your remarks in no way fit with anything I am trying to communicate.

You're communicating that there are just two dichotomies: either one believes luck is real and so should just do nothing and buy lottery tickets, or one believes it's not real and is doing things that are useful. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you were aiming at with the lottery ticket example, given that it's pretty much nobody's choice even if they believe in luck.

I spent nearly 6 years homeless. There are an awful lot of people who are homeless whose plan seems to be "buy lottery tickets" and otherwise do little or nothing to improve their situation because it seems hopeless. They feel they need a "big win" and anything less won't matter.

I worked hard at solving my problems and eventually got myself off the street.

There are lots of people who seem to apply that same general mentality to life. We know that diet and lifestyle are huge factors in health outcomes, but many people don't really take that seriously. The connection between eating right and better health isn't immediate and obvious enough.

I write about issues like homelessness and I generally look at both pieces of the equation -- what the individual can do for themselves in spite of society not being helpful enough and what society needs to do differently.

I see zero reason to assume that encouraging individuals to not engage in learned helplessness should be an excuse for society to not offer a social safety net or work on improving the one that exists.

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