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Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

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Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#71
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the ONLY reason they don't pass today is because they are not exporting to the US today. that argument is pedantic.

Possibly true. Then again, when the Mini was imported to the US as the Mini Cooper, it had to be bulked up so that the American version is much less-mini than the UK, removing some of its appeal. I'm sure Chinese companies can produce EV sedans that pass US crash tests, obviously, but can they do so while they remain cheap? We won't know unless and until they try.

those are different things now. there is a joke that a car model will always get bigger. and a different model will show up to re-fill the market that wanted the small car.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#72
post #42
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably best to get a plug in hybrid for now. Looks like there is much more choice. In a few years things will be different. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/04/plug-hybrid-electric-ve...

I've been thinking about the trade offs between a high-range EV vs. a PHEV. For me, a pure EV with less than 500 mile range couldn't be my only car, however it could be a secondary car (used for daily commuting, then switch over to something that takes gasoline if I'm away for the weekend). But even for a daily driver, most days I only need about 50 miles range on most days. So for a Tesla model S or 3, I'd be haulin…

How many cars does one person need?

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#73

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> But if it's overvalued then short the stock! To put the disclaimer up front: I have. I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms. As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wild…

Here's the mental gymnastics I go through, and as it sounds like you have done some thinking on this, perhaps you have insight... if Tesla eventually reaches a point of desperation, isn't it reasonable to think they would sell to some better-capitalized party, at which point the stock would have value (in conversion to stock of the other party, if nothing else)? So, while it might currently be overvalued at ~ $300/share, if they succeed in their goals that will seem cheap, and if they fail you'll still more than get your money back out of it. Is that just misguided optimism on my part?
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