Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock • Hacker News Board

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#71

Post by agumonkey » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

TaylorAlexander wrote: post #23

chronic821 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. I also work on self-driving cars. Why would I share technological innovations with another company?

So people don’t die. This is an example where companies could put people over profits and share what they’ve learned to keep things safe. I don’t see a lot of research papers (I see none) coming out of Waymo, Tesla, Uber, or Cruise.

Indeed it's economically worthy to have a safe market rather than a rushed one that will backfire.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#72

Post by vntok » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

myko wrote: post #53

chronic821 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. I also work on self-driving cars. Why would I share technological innovations with another company?

Ethics

Isn't it ethically preferrable for Waymo to push their own, better, safer system, as far as they can, rather than to improve competitor systems in a lesser way by sharing their secret sauce that competitors can only partially implement?

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#73

Post by abathur » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:05 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #40

rbranson wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this scenario there's no moat for Lyft/Uber either. If Waymo can meet demand, they'll be able to undercut ride sharing prices so deeply that most consumers will switch overnight. Banks will be falling over themselves to provide the massive credit they'll need to bankroll the expansion.

> they'll be able to undercut ride sharing prices Why? I see comments like this constantly. But does anyone ever do even a basic spreadsheet to explain the unit economics of this argument? Low skilled people who can drive are pretty cheap and plentiful. Even if self-driving tech is flawless (spoiler: it's not and won't be soon) it still only replaces part of their responsibilities. Someone will still have to clean th…

I don't disagree that some may be over-estimating how much cost can pragmatically be cut, but I also think you may be glossing over some of the costs and inefficiencies that come with operating a large heterogenous operation comprised of individuals and personal or rented vehicles.

A company deploying large mostly-homogenous autonomous fleets may be able to benefit from:

  - we probably don't need to tip AVs
  - economies of scale on obtaining vehicles, fuel, maintenance, and cleaning
  - tuning maintenance/cleaning schedules across a fleet towards keeping vehicles in service for longer
  - may be able to perform cleaning/maintenance during off-hours, vs owners who'll often have to trade 
    working hours to do these tasks
  - autonomous systems may drive (and be tuned towards) in ways that also help preserve long-term vehicle 
    value and minimize costs
  - lower insurance, legal, and PR costs if they outperform human drivers, don't molest/murder 
    passengers, etc.
  - minimizing costs around acquiring and managing a human workforce
  - there are probably many small ways to optimize the positioning and functioning of an AV fleet that
    just won't work with a large contractor fleet

That said, the potential for a lot of these savings depends on current prices actually reflecting these components. It may very well be more expensive to perform some of these activities, no matter how efficiently, than to exploitively externalize their costs on drivers and riders.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#74

Post by the-dude » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:06 PM UTC

zwieback wrote: post #32

jtbayly wrote: post #2

Waymo seems to be the only question mark in my mind making me doubt my bet that we're a decade or more away from usable self-driving cars. If Waymo has truly solved the problem while everybody else is just trying to catch up and/or bluffing, I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. Edited to add: The reason is that they've apparently ordered 10's of thousands of these cars. Can they really use that many only in good-wea…

I'm sure Waymo will make a lot of progress with their massive investment but using SV money as an indicator for a project's ultimate success seems unwise at this point. I think the real question is whether the big investors in self-driving cars will make progress creating virtual rails for their vehicles, e.g. roads where we can keep pedestrians out.

That is a train or a tram, not a car.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#75

Post by mulletbum » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:07 PM UTC

dawhizkid wrote: post #55

As someone who worked at a ridesharing co, I'm also really curious about the ops side of things, like how will passengers behave when there's no driver in the car? Will people try to have sex, do drugs, make a mess? What happens when someone vomits in the car or is very drunk (actually a very common problem in ridesharing)?

They change the interiors of the car to accommodate. There is a reason the public transportation doesn't feel like my Ford Fusion. It is made for lots of different butts to be in and if a mess is caused they come in and spray it out. A bus for example can be cleaned with a pressure washer (sometimes inside and out.) Seats, headboards, etc. etc. can all be put on by snaps or simple screws. Anything stolen can easily be monitored and the last occupant can be charged for it. There are a lot of ways to get this done and make it extremely cheap and durable.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#76

Post by a9a » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:09 PM UTC

rbranson wrote: post #9

jtbayly wrote: post #2

Waymo seems to be the only question mark in my mind making me doubt my bet that we're a decade or more away from usable self-driving cars. If Waymo has truly solved the problem while everybody else is just trying to catch up and/or bluffing, I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. Edited to add: The reason is that they've apparently ordered 10's of thousands of these cars. Can they really use that many only in good-wea…

I tend to agree. Waymo ordered 62,000 Chrysler Pacificas with delivery slated for late 2018. Base retail on the hybrid model is $40,000USD. Even if they got an unbelievably generous 50% discount, that means they're $1.24B USD serious, excluding the cost of the additional autonomous driving equipment. So this will either be one of the biggest debacles in Google/Alphabet's history, or they really are ready to go.

In all of these deal announcements, the key words are “up to”. That’s very different from a confirmed 62k order, and in all announcements related to that agreement timing of delivery was unconfirmed [0]. [0] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/business/waymo-chrysle...

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#77

Post by vntok » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:09 PM UTC

dsnuh wrote: post #42

vamin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will pull over.

By what mechanism though? I could see a big griefing opportunity if there is some automated system that allows law enforcement to signal the vehicle to pull over.

Check out waymo's videos; the car detects the flashing lights + reflective fabric on the police officer's uniform, as well as the shoulder and arm gestures. Griefing is as much an issue as is police impersonation right now, that is a very rare occurence that will be punished very severely when occurring.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#78

Post by TYPE_FASTER » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:11 PM UTC

jtbayly wrote: post #2

Waymo seems to be the only question mark in my mind making me doubt my bet that we're a decade or more away from usable self-driving cars. If Waymo has truly solved the problem while everybody else is just trying to catch up and/or bluffing, I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. Edited to add: The reason is that they've apparently ordered 10's of thousands of these cars. Can they really use that many only in good-wea…

> Can they really use that many only in good-weather places with perfect roads?

I would hazard a guess that yes, that's pretty much the Southwestern US year round, if you include Southern CA. There are enough metro areas, and enough new sprawling development, to put those vehicles to work.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#79

Post by vntok » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:13 PM UTC

jtbayly wrote: post #37

jfoutz wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is hard to parse. All software that can be represented as if and goto (and some sort of assignment i suppose)? when, while and do are just if and goto. alpha go is all just if and goto. I'm not sure what you're looking for or alluding to. Is there some other operation that isn't just if and goto? because i think any function you come up with, i can just make a big table of inputs that result in specific outputs.…

I believe what he's saying is that we don't "think" in if/then statements. So true AI will never be intelligent-like if you judge intelligence as thinking like us.

What do you mean? Neurons work exactly like if/then statements. If (input > level) {transmit information}

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#80

Post by alehul » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 6:15 PM UTC

heavenlyblue wrote: post #34

atwebb wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't unheard of in this space for safety considerations: https://priceonomics.com/volvo-gave-away-the-most-important-...

But a safety belt doesn't drive the car for you.

No, but it similarly could've been used to increase the company in question's market share.