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Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

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Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#71
Cali is 30x bigger than Idaho... if 100,000 people move to Idaho, 3,000,000 people need to move to Cali to keep pace in terms of percent growth.

Obviously it’s not sustainable for California to be a top growing state forever.

As someone who lives in a city with about the same pop as Boise, cities that size can be quite nice.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#72

My general view after travelling to Denver is that one of America's biggest issues is underpopulation. There is so much land in these areas and actually lots of infrastructure relative to population. It all stood out to me how white these areas remain. I saw a handful of non whites and no Asians the entire time. Shocking how the whitest areas are the most anti immigrant. What are they so angry about?! Bringing in mig…

People want to live with similiar people as them, nothing wrong about it and it works much better than all the diversity propaganda they try to push on us. It is not like in other cities people live together, on the contrary, people pay huge amount of money to be segregated from blacks or hispanics, the fact that you see them all mixed in the downtown is a situation imposed on people, not deliberately intentional.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it. No, it generally doesn't. It depends on the specific numbers of course (how much of a salary cut, how much cheaper is the housing costs), but a lot of people make that blanket statement because of a mathematical fallacy: The fallacy is if I make half as much, but my expenses are half as much, the…

Housing isn’t twice as expensive in San Francisco, it is 10x. Median price per square foot is $129 in Boise, vs $1550 for Palo Alto, or $993 in SF, $1220 SOMA.

$/sqft isn't a good metric. The correct metric is "what am I actually going to spend on housing?"

This way, the answer begins to change as your family size grows. Which I think is accurate.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it. No, it generally doesn't. It depends on the specific numbers of course (how much of a salary cut, how much cheaper is the housing costs), but a lot of people make that blanket statement because of a mathematical fallacy: The fallacy is if I make half as much, but my expenses are half as much, the…

software engineer salary somewhere else is usually more like 20-25% less rather than 50% less -- someone making 140k in SF might make 110k-120k in places like Boise or Denver. They'll pay 5k less in taxes (both due to lower total income and lower state tax rates). So saving 18k in housing costs puts them at least in a comparable disposable-income range. For people in lower-paying careers, the lower housing costs else…

> software engineer salary somewhere else is usually more like 20-25% less rather than 50% less -- someone making 140k in SF might make 110k-120k in places like Boise or Denver.

Worth pointing out that this function doesn't work for inputs much higher than $150k or so, and doesn't even work at points like $140k depending on the particular candidate.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it. No, it generally doesn't. It depends on the specific numbers of course (how much of a salary cut, how much cheaper is the housing costs), but a lot of people make that blanket statement because of a mathematical fallacy: The fallacy is if I make half as much, but my expenses are half as much, the…

software engineer salary somewhere else is usually more like 20-25% less rather than 50% less -- someone making 140k in SF might make 110k-120k in places like Boise or Denver. They'll pay 5k less in taxes (both due to lower total income and lower state tax rates). So saving 18k in housing costs puts them at least in a comparable disposable-income range. For people in lower-paying careers, the lower housing costs else…

> someone making 140k in SF might make 110k-120k in places like Boise or Denver

As someone who moved from Pittsburgh to San Francisco and had my compensation quadruple, I call bullshit.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#76
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're in tech, yes. There are a lot of tech related jobs that Boise has a huge deficit for. You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it.

Would it? From my experience, if you’re coming from a place like Google/FB/well paid smaller companies it’s still not worth it. You have to be making on the mid/lower end for the COL changes to account for the reduction in salary - in part because places like Boise simply don’t have jobs that are comparable to some of the better ones in the Bay, Seattle, and NYC

As an example, I moved from the DC metro area (itself already a high CoL area) to NYC to take a job at Google. I'm currently making 'exceeds expectations' L5 money, which is way more than you can make at basically any tech job in the DC area. And yet there are tens of thousands of engineers here in NYC making that much, at Big 4 and fintech companies.

Yes, the cost of living went up a bit, but it's utterly dwarfed by the salary gains. I'd have to somehow achieve a significantly negative cost of living for it to be worth moving to somewhere like Boise, where cracking six figures for a software job is significant.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it. No, it generally doesn't. It depends on the specific numbers of course (how much of a salary cut, how much cheaper is the housing costs), but a lot of people make that blanket statement because of a mathematical fallacy: The fallacy is if I make half as much, but my expenses are half as much, the…

Plus, cost of living doesn't account for everything. Most consumer products, e.g. cars, computers, shoes, and clothing, cost about the same everywhere. Living in San Francisco with a higher salary and paying a high rent, your spending on such products will be a smaller percentage of your income than if you lived somewhere with cheaper housing and made less money.

But housing, schools, child care, etc., make up a much bigger fraction of expenses.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#78
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are more Trump voters in New York City than there are total voters in Alabama. I agree with your general point, but the above seems grossly inaccurate. NYC had ~500k Trump voters, whereas Alabama had 1.3M Trump voters and ~2M voters in total. https://www.amny.com/news/elections/nyc-voter-turnout-was-55... https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/numbers/clinton-trump-presi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat…

Yup you are right. I did not mean to say "New York City" in the second case, I meant to just say "New York" the state, in which 2.8M people voted for Trump.

What's the point of the comparison though? New York state has over 4X the population of Alabama, and the rural areas of NY are just as you'd expect them to be.

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You won't be compensated at the same rates that you would be in California, but the cost of living would make up for it. No, it generally doesn't. It depends on the specific numbers of course (how much of a salary cut, how much cheaper is the housing costs), but a lot of people make that blanket statement because of a mathematical fallacy: The fallacy is if I make half as much, but my expenses are half as much, the…

Housing isn’t twice as expensive in San Francisco, it is 10x. Median price per square foot is $129 in Boise, vs $1550 for Palo Alto, or $993 in SF, $1220 SOMA.

How about to rent? Still 10X? A lot more people are looking to rent than to buy (at least straight off anyway).

Re: Why Invest in Cities? There's Always Another Boise

#80
post #62
post #46

The article's point is that the churn of spillover-boomtowns will continue: once the current crop of towns starts getting built out and accumulating problems like unaffordable housing, nightmarish traffic, lack of easy greenfield land to develop with cookie-cutter houses on tiny lots and giant office parks, the developers will find the next wave of towns to exploit, probably long before most of the human misery mater…

It's interesting how much blame you attribute to the developers. I would lay this squarely at the feet of city planners and voters; they hold all the keys.

It's both. City planners are constrained to their own jurisdiction, so they're trying to come out ahead by ensuring that the next wave of growth doesn't leave them behind. They're trying to solve a local optimization problem, where their competition is often the neighboring localities with whom they will share the wider trend of whatever the future may bring, but the resulting wealth will be allocated depending on exact settlement and zoning patterns. It's a prisoner's dilemma.

Meanwhile, developers -- as a loose cohort -- are absolutely the executors for the nationwide phenomenon. Their loyalty is to not to the land or their products, but to the cycle of plan, build, and profit. Wherever they are, they're deeply entangled in local politics, and lobby the local officials to let them build homes on farmland to be upzoned. They leave behind subdivisions that don't actually generate enough revenue to the town to make up for their hookups to utilities and services, but the population growth looks good for the town in reports that businesses look at to expand or relocate.

Just like a B-roll of the cities now scrambling to attract Amazon, these suburbs are hoping they'd be picked instead of the town one over when some company with national pockets wants to build a 200-job call center, data center, or distribution warehouse. In mainstream America, these tiny battles between neighboring towns are fought and lost thirty, fifty jobs at a time.

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