Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 247 posts

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#71

Post by mulmen »

fred_is_fred wrote: post #49
taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

We have no avocados here. This isn't the state you are looking for. Move along. Move along.

I'm from a small town in Idaho. I recently went back to visit family. Everyone was eager to tell me that the direct flight from Seattle would be cancelled in favor of a town 45 minutes away. The local airport which used to serve the region is losing commercial service to the largest metro area in the region. Getting out of town will take an extra transfer and a 45minute to two hour drive.

That town has stagnated and now it is dying. It is an oversimplification but I would rather deal with the problems of growth than stagnation and decay.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#72

Post by BurningFrog »

deepsun wrote: post #43
tomrod wrote: post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Yes, and also school age families will keep moving out.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#73

Post by nostrademons »

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

> Colorado is now seen as the last "cool" place thats "affordable" and liberal (sorry screaming Coloradan's, you're next).

Asheville, NC is coming up after Colorado - I've got one friends-couple that's actively moving there this summer, and a couple others that are thinking seriously about it.

> I wonder what this all will look like when we look back 20 years hence

There was an interesting throwaway comment in Carlota Perez's Technical Revolutions and Financial Capital (written in 2002). She's famous for her observation that each technological revolution tends to lead to a financial crisis that separates the "Installation" phase (governed by financial capital, and marked by successive asset bubbles & widening wealth inequality) from the "Deployment" phase (governed by production capital, and marked by a widespread dissemination of best practices and corresponding productivity gains throughout the economy).

Less famously, the book also mentions that towards the end of the "frenzy" period (the latter half of the Installation phase), you get a phenomena of "two monies". Any prices connected to the new means of production - stock values, salaries, real estate in key cities, etc. - grow exponentially, while the old economy remains stagnant. Eventually, the divide leads to war, with regions that have adopted the new production techniques battling rump states of the old declining empires. That's as far as the book goes, but the historical implication - based on the early 20th century examples of the Ottoman Turks, Czarist Russia, Imperial China & feudal Japan - is that societies that cling to the old ways collapse, and their leadership is exterminated. Those who aren't killed and who are adaptable enough to adopt new techniques find places within the victorious societies, which then start focusing their efforts on spreading the new production techniques widely within the society to equalize social divisions and cement the new order. Think of the GI Bill after WW2, the widespread suburbanization, mass production of the automobile, consumer goods, department stores, the Civil Rights Act, and so on.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#74

Post by georgeburdell »

>Home price appreciation serving ‘as a kind of second job’

I had this thought the other day, actually, when tallying my net worth for the quarter. My home went up by ~$100k in value since December (hot neighborhood near Apple) and my family earned about the same amount in income. Long term, we plan on cashing out and moving to the East Coast so it's not just idle numbers tabulating.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#75

Post by BurningFrog »

jorblumesea wrote: post #51
taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

I understand that Seattle is still allowing housing construction though?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#77

Post by mulmen »

BurningFrog wrote: post #75
jorblumesea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

I understand that Seattle is still allowing housing construction though?

I believe rent here was stable in January 2018, the first time since 2008. Supply seems to slowly be catching demand. There's still some serious concerns about space to build higher density but the city has not totally locked down new construction or density increases. My neighborhood is largely single-family and there are a number of places that have been demolished recently in favor of town homes and small apartment complexes.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#78

Post by taneq »

deepsun wrote: post #43
tomrod wrote: post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Only after a protracted period of kids being stuffed into oversized under-resourced classrooms and suffering for it.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#79

Post by mulmen »

jrs95 wrote: post #69
taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Maybe Colorado should implement some of what Hunter S. Thompson had in his platform for Sheriff of Aspen: 1. Rip up all city streets with jackhammers and sod the streets at once.... All public movement would be by foot and a fleet of bicycles, maintained by the city police force. 2. Change the name 'Aspen', by public referendum, to 'Fat City'. This would prevent greedheads, land-rapers and other human jackals from ca…

This has a strong appeal to my rural roots. It's certainly idealistic but strikes me as potentially workable.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#80

Post by ericd »

sidlls wrote: post #32
tehlike wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cap rates are hovering around 2% Hong kong is worse, i hear.

2% in SJ? That's insane. I'm paying 0.35% of the average sale price in rent for a townhouse in my community (San Mateo/Burlingame area).

Both are insane, when you consider property tax and maintenance, unless you assume a continued upward march in valuations.
Post reply on HN