China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong • Hacker News Board

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#71

Post by pwaai » Sat, Jan 20, 2018, 7:37 PM UTC

jbrun wrote: post #59

pwaai wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when th…

Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.

I'm sure many Japanese would disagree given the high rate of suicides and low reporting of happiness.

Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#72

Post by pwaai » Sat, Jan 20, 2018, 7:39 PM UTC

vfulco wrote: post #60

pwaai wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when th…

The difference with China is as a Communist state, they can make the debt disappear into some bad bank in an instant. One year debt becomes thirty year debt to be worked out long after the officials are gone. There is no downside to them and who in the global investment community will hold them accountable? No one.

the future Chinese generation will pay the burden. Debt simply doesn't go away on it's own, it can only be kicked further down the road until you can't.

it's foolish to believe that China is somehow immune from economic downturns because it's a communist state. USSR would like a word with you....

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#73

Post by iforgotpassword » Sat, Jan 20, 2018, 11:53 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #70

iforgotpassword wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding C…

Just want to point out that basing perceptions of social attitudes on fellow software engineers isn't exactly a great metric. You specifically mention what the average Joe in the US thinks, which sharply contrasts with the global, left-leaning attitudes that are prevalent with US software developers. Did you ever venture to the countryside in China? Or speak with people outside of software? China has a long history o…

> Did you ever venture to the countryside in China? Or speak with people outside of software?

see my reply further down this thread...

> They even regulate which rural people can move to cities.

Do you have the slightest clue what would happen if they didn't do that? Apparently not. It's not a great system, but it's necessary.

> The fact that you don't appear to be aware of this is odd.

I don't see the relevance to racism. I could bring to the table that there's a country that was able to go to the moon but didn't allow black people to vote at the same time which is just mind boggling, but doesn't really help the discussion either.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#74

Post by m0llusk » Mon, Jan 22, 2018, 2:34 AM UTC

oblio wrote: post #48

xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think that USSR was a paper tiger?

The fact that there were shortage of basic necessities in its last years of its existence. The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state. This comic describes it very well: https://goo.gl/GAn5fi

No toilet paper anywhere. Imagine that. Eleven time zones of no toilet paper. International Hotels in the center of Moscow had little stacks of 2 inch square wax paper if you were lucky. This was a completely dysfunctional and failed state.