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Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

bloomberg.com

71–80 of 101 posts

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#71
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until you successfully cash out, you’ve made nothing.

People don't realize how long it would take to liquidate a large sum of $$.

Why have HN stories on Bitcoin become so noisy in the comments? It's almost as bad as Soylent stories.

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#72
"He got interested in bitcoin in college because he liked the idea of a form of money that couldn’t be manipulated by governments."

Of course he did. The idea of making money by manipulating governments takes money to begin with. He thought it through.

The real question is, what are we going to do with all these useless people who want to manipulate currency markets for individual gain?

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#74
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The price never reached a 570% gain so your "most likely" is impossible. The error in the article confusing percentage and multiples is one of a common math errors and the most likely explanation. 382 is 5.7x the price paid or (382/67). That's not 570%. It's 470%. The most likely explanation is the majority of bloomberg reports know almost nothing about finance or math. Unfortunately and sadly it's still some of…

When they lose 75% of the money they invested in Bitcoin, they can keep doing the same math and be happy about their "25% gain".

Very difficult to lose 75%. Takes skill. The psychology of traders in any market, especially amateur traders, is such that loss aversion kicks in much stronger and quicker than they realize and many traders will get scared and sell during short term lower % price drops before -75% could even happen to them. Some exit after -20% losses, some hold until -50%. When the moon door opens, losses on the way down are usually spread among many traders trying to catch a falling knife.

The burned traders phenomenon could become a problem for the bitcoin community though few will talk about it. As even if the price recovers after a drop the people who thought they could trade it and lost money when they sold during a short term drop often leave the market and don't return. The same phenomenon happens in the stock market, and stock trading is a ginormous industry compared to bitcoin...amateur traders lose money trading stocks, they leave the market and never return. It's a problem..cue up the next E-Trade baby commercial ASAP! [1]

The Bitcoin big money now knows they need to control the volatility and spend hard and fast on marketing their trading platforms to new people constantly. And that's exactly what these guys behind the scenes appear to be trying to do. Hence we end up with articles like this one: Bloomberg writing about "Bitcoin Traders Claim..." that's basically one interview (at a coffee shop) with one random dude in his early 20s who trades bitcoin in his spare time. Who is the target audience for this 5th grade book report journalism? The churn will be huge.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hashPaU7Dpk

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#75
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When they lose 75% of the money they invested in Bitcoin, they can keep doing the same math and be happy about their "25% gain".

Very difficult to lose 75%. Takes skill. The psychology of traders in any market, especially amateur traders, is such that loss aversion kicks in much stronger and quicker than they realize and many traders will get scared and sell during short term lower % price drops before -75% could even happen to them. Some exit after -20% losses, some hold until -50%. When the moon door opens, losses on the way down are usually…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#76
post #56
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were probably referring to the fees that exchanges charge.

There are no fees on GDAX unless you're a taker.

That's true, but irrelevant. GDAX takes a fee on every trade. Therefore it's a negative-sum game, not zero.

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't realize how long it would take to liquidate a large sum of $$.

I've sold and transferred over $800k of cryptocurrencies to a US bank over the course of 3 days. I could probably have done it faster if I tried. This was through Gemini.

The problem is that not everybody sitting on minor btc fortunes can cash out without tanking the price. It’s purely speculative value on low trading volumes.

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've sold and transferred over $800k of cryptocurrencies to a US bank over the course of 3 days. I could probably have done it faster if I tried. This was through Gemini.

The problem is that not everybody sitting on minor btc fortunes can cash out without tanking the price. It’s purely speculative value on low trading volumes.

That shouldn't be a problem, 800K are less than 100 coins, with a trading volume per 24h of approaching 100.000 coins that should be fine.

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#79
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no fees on GDAX unless you're a taker.

That's true, but irrelevant. GDAX takes a fee on every trade. Therefore it's a negative-sum game, not zero.

The casino always wins. True for poker and bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin Traders Claim There’s Method to Their Madness

#80
post #67
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much did the price change from the first coin you sold to the last?

take a look at any bitcoin price chart and draw out 3 days? if you're thinking that 266k/day dump is going to move the market, it's not.

There's not a single market. The volume at a particular exchange matters. Note the disparity Coinbase had recently.
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