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Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

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Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lightning Network significantly reduces transaction revenue, so there will be dramatically fewer miners.

I don't think there will fewer miners. I think it's more likely that the price of Bitcoin would increase. There a lot of very large mining operations that cannot afford to scale down, and they won't sell their mined Bitcoin at a loss. If there are fewer transaction fees, this smaller amount of BTC would have to pay for all of the electricity that was used to mine a block. Maybe everything would change if the mining o…

The price will not be able to increase to the point that the mining block bitcoin reward itself will incentivize miners. As the mining block reward approaches zero, transaction fees will be the only way to incentivize miners. Since there will be fewer transactions, transactions won't have to provide a large fee just in order to get the transaction in the next block. The reduced transaction revenue will cause many miners to leave the network. Fewer miners will mean easier difficulty. This phenomenon stabilizes when mining is still profitable at the lower transaction revenue level.

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#73

I am trying to understand risks with arbitrage for professional traders with BTC spot (at Coinbase gdax) and CBOE Futures contract. Let us say, some professional trader "Short sell CBOE Future contract & Buy BTC Spot at Coinbase simultaneously" At the time of this writing, Futures contract short sell @ $18700 and BTC Spot buy @ $16700 simultaneously. http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures you wait…

>>> case 1: Bitcoin price shoots to $25,000

>>> case 2: Bitcoin price drops to $8,000

case 3: one of the exchanges canceled your order shortly after they were done.

case 4: the exchange refuses to pay you out for whatever reason they invent.

case 5: the exchange goes bust, either seized by the police, hackers or the owner outright left with all the money.

In all these cases. You are likely to loose 100% of the sum you invested.

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#74
I think Bitcoin will become the principal store of crypto value.

There will be other cryptos for different uses and Bitcoin will serve as a medium of exchange among them and as a long term store of value, it probably won’t become the everyday currency we all want to use.

Hopefully these futures will reduce its volatility and help stabilize the price

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#75
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Futures contract has TIME value, so they are usually higher than the SPOT price, please check this link for detailed explanation . https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futurescontract.asp Thought it is not exactly same, but similar case is Where you pay Premium with Stock Options to have the right RIGHT to buy the stock one month from now. Regarding cex & bitstamp they are exchange out side of USA, each of them have…

Is 11% not a huge time value premium for something that expires in a month? Can we compare the time premium with the interest rate? I have traded options, but never futures. With options there several components that increase the premium besides just the time component. According to [0] futures shouldn't have a time premium because both parties are obligated to to fulfill the contract. As you stated in the OP, the 11…

> Is 11% not a huge time value premium for something that expires in a month?

Not for Bitcoin. You can hit that in a day. I'd be happy to bet we move 11% in one direction or another within 30 days

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#76
post #67
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This cannot happen. Bitcoin difficulty adjusts to match current mining power so it can't get out of control like that.

So why does it take so long to make a transaction these days? Is the difficulty scaling outpacing the actual network?

As I understand it the transaction throughput is limited by the block size. The difficulty adjusts so the rate at which blocks can be mined remains roughly constant, but each block is size limited so it can only contain so many transactions.

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#77
post #6
post #2

Can’t really wrap my head around the rise of BTC in futures trading, as they are all cash settled. In other words, pure betting and gambling with the futures, as they really do not touch the underlying BTC. I guess, just a regular day in the massively manipulated crypto currency world...

The markets are not as independent as they might seem. If the futures market gets ahead or behind of the other BTC markets, it creates opportunities for arbitragers to profit from the difference which has the effect of reducing the gap. It doesn't matter that they are cash-settled. For example, if lots of money start pouring into Bitcoin futures, the futures price will rise above the price on BTC exchanges. It will t…

But doesn't this sort of bypass the true scarcity of the actual bitcoins?

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#78
post #21
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, the Lightning network looks like a terrible idea. It achieves nothing that an increased blocksize would not have done on-chain yet wraps a faster-layer around the slower, deliberately crippled (1MB) blockchain and does require multi-hop liquidity that must be provided by interested parties. My understanding would be that the slower layer (like TCP) would be stacked on the faster layer (like IP). The lightning…

> It achieves nothing that an increased blocksize would not have done on-chain Regardless of blocksize the block times are still 10 minutes which means you need one hour for the transaction to settle, per the 6 block standard. You can't compare that with LN.

Could you elaborate on that? I recall doing transactions that had 6+ confirmations in far less than 1 hour. Do I recall incorrectly?

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#79
post #77
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The markets are not as independent as they might seem. If the futures market gets ahead or behind of the other BTC markets, it creates opportunities for arbitragers to profit from the difference which has the effect of reducing the gap. It doesn't matter that they are cash-settled. For example, if lots of money start pouring into Bitcoin futures, the futures price will rise above the price on BTC exchanges. It will t…

But doesn't this sort of bypass the true scarcity of the actual bitcoins?

No.

Re: Bitcoin Futures Start with a Bang as Rally Trips Circuit Breaker

#80

I am trying to understand risks with arbitrage for professional traders with BTC spot (at Coinbase gdax) and CBOE Futures contract. Let us say, some professional trader "Short sell CBOE Future contract & Buy BTC Spot at Coinbase simultaneously" At the time of this writing, Futures contract short sell @ $18700 and BTC Spot buy @ $16700 simultaneously. http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures you wait…

As others pointed out, when you buy/sell futures, you risk counterparty risk. But it's not that bad because that exchange is really good and people entering the market pay margin calls every day.

There is also a financing cost (ie. the cash you use to pay for your margins, transaction costs, and to buy the bitcoins will not pay you any interests over the time of the position). But again, the effect is not very large.

What really makes arbitraging bitcoin futures difficult is the illiquidity of bitcoins. "Simultaneously" is a hard thing to do in bit coin world where transaction are slow to process and price is very volatile.

And you not only need to do this when you buy into the position, but also when you want to end it. At the end of the contract, you're left with a bunch of bitcoins, and some cash (or not). Now you need to liquidate all those remaining bitcoins. This could take some time, and the price you get in the end could be quite different from the price the future settled into.

That said, the difference between future and spot is likely to become closer as the market professionalizes and more arbitragers get in.

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