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The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

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Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#71

Post by nullc »

Alex3917 wrote: post #4

The interesting thing is that unlike in July where the price crashed, this time the price is completely stable despite the fact that it's a much bigger clusterfuck. It seems like perhaps the "you can't bet against the apocalypse" rule is being applied.

> fact that it's a much bigger clusterfuck

Why is it that people so quickly jump to "markets be crazy" as an explanation rather than "perhaps I don't understand the situation and have been sold an exaggerated version by people who profit from clicks or chaos"?

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#72

Post by michaelscott »

wpietri wrote: post #67
justboxing wrote: post #3

> I am fully cognizant of the perils of making bearish predictions about new technology. > But, to quote another well-worn and wholly unreliable aphorism, this time it's different. It really is. and >... because the only other alternative is chaos, and probably the end of the whole Bitcoin experiment. I'm very much a Bitcoin skeptic, but, I'm not sure this time is different, or that Bitcoin will die. For the last 8 y…

In one sense, it's already dead. In theory, Bitcoin is supposed to be a payment system, digital cash. But that seems to be pretty much dead. Consider the opinion of Fred Wilson, a big Bitcoin booster, who has stopped using it for payments: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ Merchant acceptance is actually in retreat: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit... It is still bei…

This might still change, but you're likely right; as a payment system it's probably not going anywhere anytime soon.

It's other description, as a form of digital gold, applies now more than ever though and I think that's how the market is treating it: largely as a hedge and store of fungible value.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#73

Post by solotronics »

mrb wrote: post #55
AgentME wrote: post #25

As a Bitcoin fan (and someone who owns a little), I think it's a pretty good article. Some more tidbits of information from my perspective: >The anti-2Xers argue that the NYA should not be binding because it was negotiated behind closed doors, and that a change of this magnitude needs to be more carefully considered before it is adopted. No active developers were part of the NYA. Some in the NYA have said that they a…

A block size increase is in fact very urgently needed. 99% of blocks are maxed out at ~4M weight DESPITE segwit, because segwit's adoption is too low (7%). Adoption isn't happening faster not because it's unneeded, but because of inertia among wallet developers. Consequently, full blocks and high fees have caused Bitcoin to lose many users to alts (LTC, ETH, ETC, DASH...) All this user loss and tx market loss has bee…

the only reason the blocks have bene full is from malicious actors filling the blocks with nonsense transactions ( miners pumping fees, and seditious big blockers trying to dissolve core )

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#74

Post by Alex3917 »

omarchowdhury wrote: post #57
Alex3917 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current price of Bitcoin is mostly driven by the fraud taking place within the Ethereum ecosystem. Let's see where the price is after a few rounds of SEC crackdowns.

That's kind of an absurd claim to make. What exactly is your reasoning?

The price is 5x since after the ETH hype started a few months ago. Literally just look at the price history.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#75

Post by toomim »

This author confuses a hard fork for a github fork:

> The bitcoin chain has been hard-forked at least five times, [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bitcoin_forks

Ouch! Those aren't hard forks— they are forks of the github repo!

In reality Bitcoin has only been hard-forked twice. Once, to fix the bug as described in BIP 50, and once for Bitcoin Cash.

Here's a better resource: http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk/patrick.mc-corry/atomically-tr...

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#76

Post by espadrine »

wpietri wrote: post #67
justboxing wrote: post #3

> I am fully cognizant of the perils of making bearish predictions about new technology. > But, to quote another well-worn and wholly unreliable aphorism, this time it's different. It really is. and >... because the only other alternative is chaos, and probably the end of the whole Bitcoin experiment. I'm very much a Bitcoin skeptic, but, I'm not sure this time is different, or that Bitcoin will die. For the last 8 y…

In one sense, it's already dead. In theory, Bitcoin is supposed to be a payment system, digital cash. But that seems to be pretty much dead. Consider the opinion of Fred Wilson, a big Bitcoin booster, who has stopped using it for payments: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ Merchant acceptance is actually in retreat: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit... It is still bei…

It was set to die by design.

Bitcoin has a predetermined graph of coin production with time that converges soon. In 2022, 90% of all bitcoins will be produced, and the ideal inflation will be lower than most fiat currencies.

But inevitably, people die, and the knowledge of their private key with them, removing bitcoins from circulation. The amount of bitcoin will therefore decrease impredictably

All in all, it will be as volatile as currently traded gold (which is not as good a long-term store of value as fiat money as a result), and slower to use in transactions (in November, the European Central Bank will launch SCT Inst, a SEPA mechanism that provides transactions in less than 15 seconds, which is better than Bitcoin's recommended 2 hours).

Beating the improvements of traditional systems will require new cryptocurrency designs.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#77

Post by yuvadam »

Interesting article, but doesn't explain why the situation is anything close to an apocalypse.

My only piece of advice is that while it's fine to take money off the table before such events, pay very close attention to what is going on and NEVER PANIC SELL. Anyone who has done so before (myself included) has regreted it.

Bitcoin has been pronounced dead many times before and yet is very well alive.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#78

Post by zby »

The main thesis of the article is outdated and now wrong - as someone pointed in its comments: https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/commit/a3c41256984bf11d95a56... All the rest might be interesting to someone completely new to the subject - but it also contains many mistakes. One is confusing git forks of the source code with the blockchain forks. Another is his claim that "everyone agrees that the capacity of the Blockchain needs to be increased" - bitcoin needs capacity increases - but it does not need to be on-chain - there are proposals like Lightning Network that would do that off-chain.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#79

Post by zby »

toomim wrote: post #75

This author confuses a hard fork for a github fork : > The bitcoin chain has been hard-forked at least five times, [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bitcoin_forks Ouch! Those aren't hard forks— they are forks of the github repo! In reality Bitcoin has only been hard-forked twice. Once, to fix the bug as described in BIP 50, and once for Bitcoin Cash. Here's a better resource: http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk…

My mistake - I would delete this comment - but now I cannot.

Your source is also not quite on the spot - it is about hard forks - but there were also soft forks.

Re: The Bitcoin Apocalypse Is Coming in Mid-November

#80

Post by Flowdalic »

toomim wrote: post #75

This author confuses a hard fork for a github fork : > The bitcoin chain has been hard-forked at least five times, [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bitcoin_forks Ouch! Those aren't hard forks— they are forks of the github repo! In reality Bitcoin has only been hard-forked twice. Once, to fix the bug as described in BIP 50, and once for Bitcoin Cash. Here's a better resource: http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk…

A common mistake made by "self-appointed" bitcoin experts and IMHO a good indicator for more red flags.

> On one side are those who believe that Bitcoin is … money, currency, …. On the other side are those who believe that it is a commodity, ….

That is the other red flag: Trying to construct two different exclusive camps. This goes along with not mentioning the Lightning Network (LN). Some people still don't see that LN could enable bitcoin to be both: A currency and a commodity.

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