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North Korea fires missile over Japan

theguardian.com

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Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#71

Post by boomboomsubban »

lostmsu wrote: post #69
ajross wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with that plan is that China has only marginally more control over Kim than we do. He's a rogue from their perspective too, and their ability to effect a "regime change" is limited by the same "don't poke the nuclear nutjob" problem we have.

I am not convinced that Kim is rogue. How do you know his actions are not dictated by China?

We can't know, but there's no reason to suspect they are. Why would China want a North Korea able to nuke Beijing? Why impose sanctions on North Korea if they're following your orders? And when has North Korea ever listened to anyone?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#72

Post by xxxdarrenxxx »

baklavabook wrote: post #35
jonnathanson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean gov…

Agreed, this is not Trumps fault.

To me it all feels like the classic "I dare you to punch me"

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#73

Post by KekDemaga »

hatsunearu wrote: post #43
KekDemaga wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that the US has had the capability to disable ICBMs for some time now. (See patriot missile system and iron dome and remember Regan's star wars project and its not a big leap to make) I think it's just a matter that we don't want to let would be nuclear assailants know until they have already committed.

Yes, it's called the THAAD and it has been recently deployed in SK after a long debate.

I'm thinking that but in an orbital configuration.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#74

Post by fao_ »

cattlefarmer wrote: post #67
fao_ wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.

Flying over open water is one thing. The missiles flew straight over populated land.

Again, there is literally no way for NK to fly the missles to the water WITHOUT going over populated land. Study a map for god's sake.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#75

Post by ajross »

baklavabook wrote: post #35
jonnathanson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean gov…

North Korea's brinksmanship isn't Trumps fault. The ham fisted diplomacy which has left us with no good options in the face of their escalation absolutely is. The Obama administration managed to keep the system in something like a steady state for eight years, after all. It's getting out of control now for a reason.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#76

Post by jonnathanson »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #71
lostmsu wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not convinced that Kim is rogue. How do you know his actions are not dictated by China?

We can't know, but there's no reason to suspect they are. Why would China want a North Korea able to nuke Beijing? Why impose sanctions on North Korea if they're following your orders? And when has North Korea ever listened to anyone?

China has been playing a dangerous game in nurturing the Kim regime and allowing it to obtain nuclear weapons. China has benefitted over the years from the presence of a hedge on its border against the US and South Korea, and from the frustrations the Kims have caused for the US, South Korea, and Japan. But it's been keeping a wild animal as a pet in its own backyard, and now that animal's got claws and rabies.

Interestingly enough, I see the emergence of common ground between Washington and Beijing on this issue. Sooner or later, China is going to calculate that Kim Jong-Un is more trouble than he's worth. When that happens, I can see the US and China arranging an unwritten agreement to take out Kim in exchange for the US's acceptance of the legitimacy of the North Korean state.

That would be a bitter pill for the US and its allies to swallow. But it seems preferable to the current course and speed of events, which basically have Kim developing usable ICBMs within a decade or less. To assume that a growing nuclear arsenal will somehow make Kim less of a threat, or endow him with a newfound sense of global stewardship and responsibility, is to place a particularly strange bet.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#77

Post by sova »

jonnathanson wrote: post #76
boomboomsubban wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't know, but there's no reason to suspect they are. Why would China want a North Korea able to nuke Beijing? Why impose sanctions on North Korea if they're following your orders? And when has North Korea ever listened to anyone?

China has been playing a dangerous game in nurturing the Kim regime and allowing it to obtain nuclear weapons. China has benefitted over the years from the presence of a hedge on its border against the US and South Korea, and from the frustrations the Kims have caused for the US, South Korea, and Japan. But it's been keeping a wild animal as a pet in its own backyard, and now that animal's got claws and rabies. Inter…

The people of North Korea suffer greatly in poverty, lack of food, lack of resource, lack of education. The greatest issue is not taking out the head of the snake, it's the millions of refugees that would go to South Korea, flooding one of the most tech-advanced countries with people needing help and livelihood. That's the big tsunami that nobody wants to look at.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#78

Post by jonnathanson »

sova wrote: post #77
jonnathanson wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been playing a dangerous game in nurturing the Kim regime and allowing it to obtain nuclear weapons. China has benefitted over the years from the presence of a hedge on its border against the US and South Korea, and from the frustrations the Kims have caused for the US, South Korea, and Japan. But it's been keeping a wild animal as a pet in its own backyard, and now that animal's got claws and rabies. Inter…

The people of North Korea suffer greatly in poverty, lack of food, lack of resource, lack of education. The greatest issue is not taking out the head of the snake, it's the millions of refugees that would go to South Korea, flooding one of the most tech-advanced countries with people needing help and livelihood. That's the big tsunami that nobody wants to look at.

I don't think anyone is saying that accepting the DPRK is a good option. I'm saying it may end up being the best worst option available to us at some unspecified point in the next decade or so.

Hopefully we can encourage or entice China into forcing systematic reform on a post-Kim DPRK. I don't think China will all too keen to foster democracy and open markets, so we shouldn't expect too much. But we can probably inveigh on China that an economically and socially stable DPRK is preferable to an unstable one, and that the global soft power China desperately craves will come when it is seen as having at least a shred of concern for human rights. Up to us and China to come to terms on exactly what the bargain would be. But my best guess is that it won't be something we'd currently find conscionable or acceptable.

My point is, from a realist perspective, our bargaining power is only going to incrementally diminish over time. Today we have the strongest hand of cards we are ever going to be delt, and it is a really shitty hand. Tomorrow our hand is going to be even shittier, and China's stronger. You dont need to stretch your imagination too far to see that we have no real way to win this game. Previous presidents have tried checking. Trump has tried bluffing. Sooner or later, someone at the table is going to call.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#79

Post by sova »

jonnathanson wrote: post #78
sova wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people of North Korea suffer greatly in poverty, lack of food, lack of resource, lack of education. The greatest issue is not taking out the head of the snake, it's the millions of refugees that would go to South Korea, flooding one of the most tech-advanced countries with people needing help and livelihood. That's the big tsunami that nobody wants to look at.

I don't think anyone is saying that accepting the DPRK is a good option. I'm saying it may end up being the best worst option available to us at some unspecified point in the next decade or so. Hopefully we can encourage or entice China into forcing systematic reform on a post-Kim DPRK. I don't think China will all too keen to foster democracy and open markets, so we shouldn't expect too much. But we can probably inv…

What do you mean by "accepting?" There are going to be millions of resource-less refugees when North Korea falls apart. The US already "accepts" North Korea in the way that there is lots of foreign aide sent there, and most of it gets gobbled up at the "top of the food chain." Adding legitimacy to a foul empire is not any sort of solution that embarks upon the path to positive change.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#80

Post by DashRattlesnake »

fastball wrote: post #53
DashRattlesnake wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya I think it's wrong to compare North Korea to those countries. For one, the post-regime change problems in those countries have been caused by Islamic insurgencies, which is not something I'd expect to happen in NK.

What, because East Asians are incapable of armed insurgency? Are you forgetting the Viet Cong so quickly?

They certainly are, but I think it's foolish to think that a regime change would play out the same in NK as it did in countries with very different cultures. I'm skeptical that NK's ideology would be able to sustain an insurgency after too much contact with the outside.

Also, the Viet Cong were supported by a state, North Vietnam. They also weren't able to defeat South Vietnam; that took a withdrawal of US support and the actions of the regular North Vietnamese Army.

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