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Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

bloomberg.com

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Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#71

Post by RandomInteger4 »

rdtsc wrote: post #68
ericdykstra wrote: post #63

Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists: http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018... My commentary with support from that article follows: A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A po…

> Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.

They have computerized toilets, so compared to what I see in most of the United States, I'd have to say yes.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#72

Post by rdtsc »

matt4077 wrote: post #37
temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #16

Japan has never been one to shy away from high-tech industries, and as the article notes, aesthetic sensibilities towards kawaii robots make this a natural progression for a high-tech, ethnically homogeneous, aging nation. Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted by intellectuals and practiced by widesprea…

Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late 1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today. And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Making robots care for the elderly will jus…

> Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today.

Do you think it is functioning because it is diverse or diverse because it is already functioning well? Or maybe the two are just correlated and there is something else causing those two things?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#73

Post by ericdykstra »

rdtsc wrote: post #68
ericdykstra wrote: post #63

Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists: http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018... My commentary with support from that article follows: A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A po…

> Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.

Did you miss the part right after what you quoted?

> the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more.

Japan has leading technology companies in many industries that consumers just don't care about.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#74

Post by matt4077 »

flukus wrote: post #52
matt4077 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late 1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today. And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Making robots care for the elderly will jus…

> And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Most of the west has seen the same stagnation, they've just papered over it with immigration. Why would anyone care about economic growth when they are not receiving the benefits of it?

> they've just papered over it with immigration

That's just easily disproven by looking up GDP per capita.

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#75

Post by RandomInteger4 »

fzeroracer wrote: post #69
mikekchar wrote: post #49

This is an opinion piece backed up with practically no information whatsoever. If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the categories where you can get a long term visa [0] You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 po…

This ignores the issue that while Japan opens the red carpet for people to move and work in Japan, once you get past the welcoming mat you enter the vaunted Japanese Business Grind where you get to deal with incredibly long working hours, abuse and shitty pay. This is before you even start talking about black companies. The reason why foreigners have trouble accepting Japanese culture is because work culture in Japan…

Black companies? As in Black Market or Yakuza?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#76

Post by 505 »

rdtsc wrote: post #68
ericdykstra wrote: post #63

Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists: http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018... My commentary with support from that article follows: A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A po…

> Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.

Sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a magical level of reliability.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#77

Post by comstock »

neptunespear wrote: post #35
comstock wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks." I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. I really can't see, at least the company I worked wi…

> I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. You can't just drop an anecdote like that without naming and shaming.

Honestly, I'd rather hear evidence supporting the argument that any of these companies could be called "the future of automation".

Anything I say, will by its nature be anecdotal. But do you have anything to support the assertion that they're actually doing amazing things?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#78

Post by forapurpose »

petre wrote: post #65
ufjvuc wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the workers just owned the means of production and there was an adequate safety net?

In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out. This works in agriculture to some extent, but that's sector where automation already displaced most jobs and it will continue to do so.

> In the Eastern Block you had those two conditions checked and it didn't quite work out.

The workers did not control the assets, unelected totalitarian dictators did, despite endless propaganda to the contrary.

I'm not saying the idea works, but the Eastern Block was not a test of it.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#79

Post by micaksica »

RandomInteger4 wrote: post #75
fzeroracer wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ignores the issue that while Japan opens the red carpet for people to move and work in Japan, once you get past the welcoming mat you enter the vaunted Japanese Business Grind where you get to deal with incredibly long working hours, abuse and shitty pay. This is before you even start talking about black companies. The reason why foreigners have trouble accepting Japanese culture is because work culture in Japan…

Black companies? As in Black Market or Yakuza?

"Burakku Kigyou" are (usually) white-collar 'sweatshop' type companies. Long hours, bad pay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_company_(Japanese_term)

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#80

Post by matt4077 »

fiblye wrote: post #57
matt4077 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive economic bubble. So, you're agreeing that Japan is on a long downward slope to economic and technological irrelevance, but you believe the average Japanese would rather accept this than immigration?

Japan is reverting to a state of being as technologically and economically irrelevant as Western European countries. The most common thing I see on the news and hear people worry about is the violence going on in America and in the increasingly common European terror attacks. The attitude to immigration is only being solidified here, and none of the "but what about your GDP???" stuff matters to anyone but degree mill…

Here are a few things correlated with GDP. Note that we don't know the direction of causation, so either Japan's GDP is going sideways because corruption is on the rise–or they can expect corruption to rise because the economy is stagnating.

low levels of GDP and high levels of corruptions are correlated

poverty reduction and per capita income growth performances are correlated

economic freedom is correlated with income

Rule of law is correlated to GDP per person

There is only a partial correlation between democracy and economic growth but stronger correlation between democracy and level of GDP

As per capita income increases to around US$5,000 per annum, environmental quality falls, but then from around $8,000 per capita onwards, the environmental quality rises again

GDP and happiness is correlated

GDP per capita is correlated to percentage of population who donate to charity

GDP is correlated to individualism in a country

Wealthier countries tend to have less income inequality

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