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Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

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Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#71

Post by icebraining »

candiodari wrote: post #16

> Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that's a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too. I hate that people actually see things this way. Regulation to prevent AIs from taking over the world will never happen, because nation states won't cooperate on such rules [1]. Additionally you can't catch people using AIs to determine their actions. BUT what regulation can do…

There are other dangers besides "taking over the world". In fact, Elon Musk should know, since his company's AI already got people killed.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#72

Post by thinkfurther »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #62
thinkfurther wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather first deal with the excessed of greed resulting from psychopathology, because any successor of not doing that, multiplying the failure to do that by "infinite". I don't consider us even born, we're still in a holding pattern, about to be aborted. > I think AGI should be our offspring and we as a species go peacefully into oblivion. This isn't "out there". Just start with religious apocalyptic visions of de…

I'd hardly call a few sentences spelling it all out. Your point is one I hear often, especially the "what's the point if the heat death is coming anyway." Basically your argument lies in the "virtue ethics" category of philosophy which argues that man-qua-man should be the best man possible. Eudaimonia in the Stoic tradition and all of that. Either that you keep your ideas to yourself mostly Yes this is the case.

Well, do you have it spelled out somewhere? Want to spell it out? Otherwise, what's the point of bringing it up? Me too am completely unchallenged in my actual viewpoints, but I gotta run. That's pointless.

> Basically your argument lies in the "virtue ethics" category of philosophy which argues that man-qua-man should be the best man possible.

No, my argument is what I actually wrote, in short that I want the psychological problems and the obedience to them sorted out before we magnify it all so much it becomes impossible to sort out.

It's like we're driving this car at on a perfectly straight road at 80 mp/h, and some say "steering locked in, activate nitros" and I'm saying "actually, we're slightly skewed, if we use the nitro before correcting that we'll smash into a tree". And in response I get "oh, so you don't like Jazz" or something equally non-reassuring.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#73

Post by nopinsight »

thinkfurther wrote: post #55
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I think that's a reasonable thought but in my opinion it's not really describing AGI. Rather, it's describing something near AGI that can be controlled. That's why I am vociferously against the "Friendly AI" movement, because fundamentally humans aren't friendly - and that doesn't mean friendly in terms of agreeable or altruistic. Rather "Friendly" as used in the FAI sense, means "Does not reject or override the…

If I had only the two choices, I would absolutely choose unconstrained, actual AGI over something controllable. But that's because the way things are going, I see mostly doom and gloom anyway; controlled AI will increase that, uncontrollable ones are at least wildcards. I'm not proud to feel that way, but I do. I have little hope for the human resistance against other humans that has been necessary for so long and ju…

Technology inventors/project leaders can turn into the majority owners of capital. We already see the shift: 5 of the 10 richest people in the world built their wealth from tech, 7 of the 10 largest public companies in the world by market capitalization are tech companies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by...

The shift is still ongoing. Old(er) capital still have much control of the world's economy, but as technological development accelerates and becomes more valuable, the balance could tilt more towards these tech-based capital.

I am not saying they are saints but at least many of these self-made tech billionaires pledged to give much of their wealth away for philantrophy instead of leaving it to their heirs.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#74

Post by hayd »

gdb wrote: post #42
nbkvjones wrote: post #25

there was a "discussion" on nadota.com about the bot and the semipro player that openai used to test chimed in. apparently the set of items the bot chose to purchase from was limited[1] and recommended by the semipro tester. As someone who knows next to nothing about ai, my question is this: the bot was announced on stage as blank slate, dumped into dota, and built entirely from grinding countless games against itsel…

(I work at OpenAI.) We'll have another blog post coming in the next few days. But as a sneak peek: we use self-play to learn everything that depends on an interaction with the opponent. Didn't need to with those that don't (e.g. fixed item builds, separately learned creep block).

So it's not exclusively unsupervised self-play? This contradicts how it was portrayed during the game/afterwards.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#75

Post by nimos »

dvt wrote: post #7

Pretty much agree with everything in here. As I said in my earlier posting (and this blog post reiterates), a 1v1 Shadowfiend mid is highly technical and does not require a huge search space (like in Go or Chess) or any judgment; all it takes is a few tactics (e.g. creep blocking) and good aim for the razes. Also, the bot was already beaten 50+ times[1]. There are at least 3 strategies that work. It just goes to show…

If you look at this problem realistically it should be offensively easy for AI. The entire world state is available to you with perfect accuracy at a timescale that is trivial for computers but well beyond human reach. Also, there are clear goals and absolute limits to the functionality of the world.

But the human players quickly adapted and developed new strategies and the bots just weren't able to adapt as quickly. You can see the players recognizing the idea of a training set and trying things the bots probably hadn't seen before to see if they could confuse the bots.

As much as there is a lot if impressive work being done in machine learning I can't help but to be generally a bit skeptical of the whole "AI revolution" and people being replaced en mass. I'm far from an expert but from everything I've seen from machine learning seems like this awesome tool to augment human ability rather than replace it.

I'm not super interested in having a computer doctor but I'd be 100% on board with my doctor having smarter computer.

I think the greatest challenge to date in machine learning is identifying how to use it to create value.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#76

Post by thinkfurther »

OtterCoder wrote: post #60
thinkfurther wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather first deal with the excessed of greed resulting from psychopathology, because any successor of not doing that, multiplying the failure to do that by "infinite". I don't consider us even born, we're still in a holding pattern, about to be aborted. > I think AGI should be our offspring and we as a species go peacefully into oblivion. This isn't "out there". Just start with religious apocalyptic visions of de…

Your translation is definitely crude, but I'm completely fascinated by it. I think it speaks to the part of hipster-ism that people react so strongly against. Why enjoy things 'ironically', or spend the effort becoming a connoisseur and a snob when you should really just enjoy things on a basic level. Like what you like, and rejoice in it.

:) I wish I had come up with something better than "genital area" heh, but "womb" also didn't strike me as quite right.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#77

Post by sweden »

dennybritz wrote: post #8
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #6

We did not make sudden progress in AI because our algorithms are so smart – it worked because our researchers are smart about setting up the problem in just the right way to work around the limitations of current techniques. This statement is like putting wheels and a motor at the base of the goalposts. Everyone who practices ML knows the reality that while we're not going to see AGI for a while, and these systems ar…

I agree. The point I was trying to make is not whether it is impressive or not (it is impressive!), but that the general press hype about "AI breakthroughs that will soon kill us all and need regulation" is over the top and misleading. The probably massive engineering effort that went into this is, to me, more impressive than the algorithmic innovation, if any. Progress is made with small incremental improvements, in…

I feel that you are missing the whole point of "AI breakthroughs that will soon kill us all and need regulation". It's not about AI becoming self-aware and start to proactively taking over humanity starting from a Dota game, it's how we are finally capable of putting AI anywhere.

The point Elon Musk was trying to show is that nowadays, we have the technology and the research to replace humans by AI for making judgement calls, no matter how difficult it is. And this was proven with a "simple" game of Dota. And if we are able to build a system to play Dota, we are also able to build AIs for anything at all.

You claim that there had not been any real breakthroughs over the past years but truth to be told, today we have AI playing Go, AI managing self driving systems, AI playing games of Dota against the top players. All of this happened over the last few years, 5 years ago this all felt like a distant future.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#78

Post by semi-extrinsic »

gnaritas wrote: post #34
dennybritz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The point I was trying to make is not whether it is impressive or not (it is impressive!), but that the general press hype about "AI breakthroughs that will soon kill us all and need regulation" is over the top and misleading. The probably massive engineering effort that went into this is, to me, more impressive than the algorithmic innovation, if any. Progress is made with small incremental improvements, in…

When should people attempt to regulate AI, when it's too late? Stopping a problem before it happens is called foresight. And if you pay attention to the press, it's not about killing us all, it's about disrupting the world, i.e. destroying jobs.

The reason I don't buy the "destroying jobs" argument is that we have tens of thousands of jobs just in the small country where I live that could be automated away by 1980s technology. For a US-specific example, look at the way you submit your taxes. That shit could be 99% automated away, like it is in many European countries already, and you have several large companies that would come crashing down, together with many thousands of government employees suddenly without a job. There's no AI required. Why hasn't it been done already? Why should AI change that?

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#79

Post by sweden »

candiodari wrote: post #16

> Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that's a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too. I hate that people actually see things this way. Regulation to prevent AIs from taking over the world will never happen, because nation states won't cooperate on such rules [1]. Additionally you can't catch people using AIs to determine their actions. BUT what regulation can do…

The "taking of the world" scenario is a too narrow view of the whole complexity of AI regulation.

There are other more realistic and important scenarios that need to be addressed, for example: AI's default behaviour when challenged with a possibility of a car accident on a self driving system. Should the car try to avoid the accident by jumping of a cliff, sacrificing the life of the driver and of the people inside the car, or should it hit the next car making the accident worse for the other person but potentially saving the life of the people inside the car?

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#80

Post by [deleted] »

dvt wrote: post #7

Pretty much agree with everything in here. As I said in my earlier posting (and this blog post reiterates), a 1v1 Shadowfiend mid is highly technical and does not require a huge search space (like in Go or Chess) or any judgment; all it takes is a few tactics (e.g. creep blocking) and good aim for the razes. Also, the bot was already beaten 50+ times[1]. There are at least 3 strategies that work. It just goes to show…

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