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We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

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Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#71

Post by RobertoG »

peacetreefrog wrote: post #12

this guy needs a little more humility. as dan boudreaux writes: "It’s called “history.” Since humans first controlled fire and carved arrows, history is a long tale of the invention and use of labor-saving techniques and devices. Domestication of oxen and horses. Pulleys. Levers. Irrigation channels. Metal saws. The printing press. Concrete. The wheel. All save labor, yet none has led to permanent increases in unempl…

There are strong arguments in the "this time is different" side.

When jobs are lost because technology, the new jobs are created in fields where technology can't compete. Until now that was intellectual work.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#72

Post by gjem97 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #68
TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no resource scarcity. 6 men own as much wealth as the poorest 50% of the _planet_. This is a crisis of capitalism and wealth distribution.

My 1 year old nephew also owns more than all the people with debt > assets combined. 3 billion x negative number Such a crisis of capitalism.

Globally, how many people have net debt? I bet it's fewer than you think.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#73

Post by RobertoG »

digitalzombie wrote: post #47

Automation is going to happen anyway. There are several ways we can deal with it. 1. We can set up a social safety net to transition displaced workers to a new trade/career. 2. Protectionism. 3. We do nothing. 4. basic income --- Doing nothing is silly. Basic income isn't going to pass in USA, universal healthcare haven't even pass yet. Protectionism goes against capitalism and it doesn't help in the long run. It jus…

The elephant on the room, the old question that it seems nobody wants to mention is, in a totally automated economy, "who owns the means of production?".

I don't think we are going to arrive nowhere in the discussion until we face that question.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#74

Post by gremlinsinc »

crispyambulance wrote: post #64
jbob2000 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And get crushed by drone strikes. The old methods of overthrowing power don't work any more!

mmm, don't be so sure about that, at least not yet. Drone strikes have failed to "crush" any insurgency thus far and there is a strong argument that they've inflammed the situation wherever they've been used as weapons. Moreover, "pitchforks" come in many forms.

THere's also the fact that given enough timeline when 90% of the world's population is out on the street, All economies will suffer, because you cannot have capitalism IF you don't have consumers. No purchases = No income. -- UBI puts money in pockets, for people to keep consuming locally, and props up local economies.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#75

Post by logfromblammo »

daliwali wrote: post #52
bsmith wrote: post #9

I disagree with the author here on UBI. The root of the issue goes deeper than deciding to prop up job markets so that there is enough supply of jobs to meet the demand. Based on the arguments in the article, this can only be a temporary fix; eventually automation will take over too many jobs for every person to have one—or at the very least, human labor is a commodity that eventually becomes so cheap that the labore…

>does being born make you worthy of survival? Does the world owe you a living? Most would answer "no". Civilization is often in direct opposition to nature, which is cruel and unforgiving. A civilization in collapse will revert to natural selection, in which the fittest survive and reproduce. I believe that we are witnessing the breakdown of the social contract as the atomic unit of society shifts from the family to…

The world does not owe me a living, but then again, it has no rules that I am bound to obey.

Civilization does owe me a living, in exchange for my good conduct. If civilization cannot or will not provide me with my survival needs, I will instead break its laws and prey upon its people and systems to get not just what I need, but also what I want. If your system cannot reasonably accommodate everyone, you will have outlaws fighting it.

You can build walls or commit genocides, but they are not going to play any game by the rules when the rules guarantee that they will lose it.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#76

Post by BatFastard »

logfromblammo wrote: post #75
daliwali wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>does being born make you worthy of survival? Does the world owe you a living? Most would answer "no". Civilization is often in direct opposition to nature, which is cruel and unforgiving. A civilization in collapse will revert to natural selection, in which the fittest survive and reproduce. I believe that we are witnessing the breakdown of the social contract as the atomic unit of society shifts from the family to…

The world does not owe me a living, but then again, it has no rules that I am bound to obey. Civilization does owe me a living, in exchange for my good conduct. If civilization cannot or will not provide me with my survival needs, I will instead break its laws and prey upon its people and systems to get not just what I need, but also what I want. If your system cannot reasonably accommodate everyone, you will have ou…

Well said, Civilization is indeed a contract. However there are various ways to enforce the contract. In the middle ages in Europe is was enforced via religion. Behave or go to hell. In communist countries it was contribute or go to work camps. In capitalist societies so far it has been behave and reap upward mobility or go to jail. When there is no upward mobility, I am not sure if jail is enough to enforce the contract.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#77

Post by TheAdamAndChe »

crispyambulance wrote: post #64
jbob2000 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And get crushed by drone strikes. The old methods of overthrowing power don't work any more!

mmm, don't be so sure about that, at least not yet. Drone strikes have failed to "crush" any insurgency thus far and there is a strong argument that they've inflammed the situation wherever they've been used as weapons. Moreover, "pitchforks" come in many forms.

Exactly. The reason the US has had a drawn-out War on Terror right now is because it has the potential to hurt us more than anything else. Asymmetric warfare strategies can be very, very effective while using almost no resources.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#78

Post by TheAdamAndChe »

zip1234 wrote: post #43

I'm totally onboard with UBI if it is actually needed. The problem is people PROJECTING that it will be needed. In the current world human labor is very much in demand. Maybe people won't be able to use the specific degree that they went to school for but that just means a bit of retraining and/or a bit of mindset shift. If there is a massive outflux of jobs in America, then there are many questions that need to be a…

> In the current world human labor is very much in demand.

If this were the case, wages would be rising. Supply and demand is what kept unions around in the 60s, there was enough demand for labor that they could demand higher wages and better treatment. Now due to globalization and other things, the return on labor is incredibly low and still declining.

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#79

Post by lovich »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #49
TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming that this is a rising tide that will lift all boats. What I'm afraid of is that the world will be split into capital owners who own all the robots, and the perpetually poor, who can't get jobs because they've all been automated and the only jobs remaining are minimum wage "service" jobs. And that's assuming there will be enough service jobs to go around. We're already seeing this split occur in USA. T…

The middle class is basically gone at this point, and the majority of people are either upper-middle class or lower class. This is only true if you have some bizarre definitions that you're using. The decline of the middle class has been a few percentage points. It's certainly not "gone". More than 50% of households in America make $25-100k. That's solidly middle-class. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_U…

25k isnt even enough to pay rent after taxes in quite a few cities where the jobs are. If you take Boston for example and follow the rule of thumb of 30% of your net income for rent, youd need around 80k to afford a 1 bedroom apartment without roommates

Re: We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation

#80

Post by DannyB2 »

jbob2000 wrote: post #61
crispyambulance wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and that's when you reach for the pitchforks along with the others.

And get crushed by drone strikes. The old methods of overthrowing power don't work any more!

Those ordering drone strikes on their own citizens might discover that some significant fraction of drone operators are unwilling to carry out such orders.
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