This appears to be bitcode. It probably means they just starting making use of more metadata or something that is now included in the bitcode. Bitcode also now deliberately trades off size vs speed and includes indexes used for LTO, etc. They could be including those. You should almost always expect bitcode to get beat by "llvm-dis|xz", because the goal of bitcode is not to be the most compact possible format, but in…
bitcode is already compressed.
But the regression is huge, there needs to be a command-line switch to turn that off.