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Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

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Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#71
post #26

One metric of how negative sentiment is the short ratio of the stock (percent of shares sold short). For comparison: AAPL - 1.3% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics ) MSFT - 0.7% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=msft+Key+Statistics ) GOOG - 1.4% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=goog+Key+Statistics )

I humbly disagree. Markets are not 100% efficient in aggregating information. The list of examples is endless. Remember 3com and Palm?

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#72
post #26

One metric of how negative sentiment is the short ratio of the stock (percent of shares sold short). For comparison: AAPL - 1.3% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics ) MSFT - 0.7% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=msft+Key+Statistics ) GOOG - 1.4% ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=goog+Key+Statistics )

Every time someone sells short someone is buying. So how is short ratio useful to measure "negative sentiment"?

Short selling might be used for technical reasons. For instance, an option trader might sell put options and at the same time sell the stock short for hedging. If the stock price goes down he loses money on the options but gains when he covers the short sell. That is, he might be betting on variables other than the stock price.

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#73
post #31

if you wanted to buy the entire company it would cost you about $240 billion. To put that in context, for the same amount of money you could own Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM - News), the world's largest gold-mining company, And E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Co. And Kellogg Co., And Shrek studio DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc, And H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB - News), And The New York Times Co. And Molson Coors Brewing, And…

Apple is very profitable. It made 3 billion last quarter, about twice Jet Blue's market cap. Apple has no debt and a lot of cash. Apple could essentially buy Starbucks with cash. Apple's current assets is more than 30B and Starbucks market cap is less than 20B.

I'm not saying that Apple isn't overvalued, but let's get some perspective here:

With $40 billion in the bank, Apple could buy, in cash, today, all of the following:

  - New York Times (1.4 billion)
  - Jet Blue (1.6)
  - Burger King (2.8)
  - Dreamworks (3.4)
  - Abercrombie and Fitch (3.9)
  - NStar (3.9)
  - Chipotle (4.2)
  - Netflix (5.1)
  - H&R Block (6)
  - Whole Foods (6.8)
Now, assuming the 3 billion dollars someone else here said they made last quarter is accurate. And assuming it holds true for a few years:

  - they can buy Dupont by November.
  - they can buy CBS by June 2011
  - they can buy Hershey by April 2012
  - they can buy Estee Lauder by April 2013
  - they can buy Starbucks by November 2014
  - etc. Kellogs and Newmont would take about twenty months each.
Keep in mind that this is all straight cash. A lot of companies operate in debt, Apple doesn't have any and wouldn't have to take any on to do these hypothetical purchases.

And naturally, this is all based on what they are doing today. If you put your money into the stock, you're assuming they are going to do at least as well. But even if they don't, that's still a lot of money the company is generating.

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#74

Gotta post this somewhere to get it off my chest, so might as well be here - ...as someone who was using OS9 when Apple had a death watch on it there's a certain amount of schadenfreude, mixed with wonder, at this situation of Apple as the 800lb gorilla. I get a giant kick out of the whole thing. :-) That is all.

I'd get a kick out of Apple if it were showing microsoft how you can be successful without pulling all kinds of (dirty) tricks. Unfortunately it looks like they are at least as bad as microsoft ever was and that the gospel according to Jobs is not that far removed from the gospel according to Gates. The one thing they've got going for them is that stuff appears to look better and works better, otherwise the new boss…

Microsoft with taste?

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#75

Gotta post this somewhere to get it off my chest, so might as well be here - ...as someone who was using OS9 when Apple had a death watch on it there's a certain amount of schadenfreude, mixed with wonder, at this situation of Apple as the 800lb gorilla. I get a giant kick out of the whole thing. :-) That is all.

I'd get a kick out of Apple if it were showing microsoft how you can be successful without pulling all kinds of (dirty) tricks. Unfortunately it looks like they are at least as bad as microsoft ever was and that the gospel according to Jobs is not that far removed from the gospel according to Gates. The one thing they've got going for them is that stuff appears to look better and works better, otherwise the new boss…

It is the dilemma of the righteous dictator. We have a dictator who is good to use, but he is still a dictator. And you are constantly afraid of the next one that you don't know.

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#76
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After using the Mac for the first time ( bought it just for iPhone development ) I was impressed . Forget iPhone and iPad , what if Mac becomes the standard. Read 'Mac is back' by Paul Graham. Many of my friends who do not do any programming bought Mac recently. Windows PC now feels like a waste of time to me. Maybe the masses will catch up later.

> what if Mac becomes the standard The only way that can happen is if OS X can be licensed to third-party computer manufacturers. Most computer users just browse the net or read/write documents and spreadsheets. Why would they want an overpriced Mac for doing that? That's partly the reason why I once thought that Linux will overtake the market, because of its price. But apparently there are other forces that keep Win…

> Most computer users just browse the net or read/write documents and spreadsheets.

Which is what the iPad was created to target.

> your free or shiny OS doesn't mean shit if I can't run my apps on it

The only application I know of where I prefer the Windows implementation to what is available for my Mac is Quickbooks. There might be other narrow verticals (CAD?) where you don't have best of breed software available for Apple's OS, but by and large in 2010 worrying about software availability for a Mac is a moot point.

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#77

I'd love to see Apple do a watch, or a clip-on to a watch that enabled financial transactions as a substitute for cash. It'd probably need some type of rfid, and the merchant some type of biometric, otherwise if someone saw the watch, they might be tempted to steal.

something like a credit or eftpos card perhaps? :)

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#78
post #43

I think it's very challenging for Apple. Apple is making a skyrocketing revenue because iPad and iPhone sales has boomed. But iPad won't sell for 300K piece everyday, that only happened the first day... actually it can sell! Yes, but there is an interesting point (so that it sells at such high rate): Apple "must" dominate the market. For the iPhone, the competition is now fierce: Android, BlackBerry, Palm, Windows mo…

> For the iPhone, the competition is now fierce: Android, BlackBerry, Palm, Windows mobile and Nokia! Nokia is already a major player, they won't let Apple take the market easily and cheaply

Have you seen how much market share Palm, Microsoft and Nokia have lost to RIM and Apple over the last three years?!

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#79
post #9
post #7

"Journalists are terrified of this company too. Why? Just ask Jason Chen - the editor at tech blog Gizmodo who got his hands on the next iPhone. Apple's response? They sent in the police, who smashed down Chen's front door, ransacked his house -- while he was out -- and carted off computers and files. When Chen returned home from dinner with his wife, they frisked him too." This is the kind of argument they are makin…

> Apple's response? They sent in the police ... This, like much of the article, is complete hyperbole (unless you actually believe Apple controls the police force).

I thought it was buying stolen property that brought the police.

Re: Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple

#80

I'd love to see Apple do a watch, or a clip-on to a watch that enabled financial transactions as a substitute for cash. It'd probably need some type of rfid, and the merchant some type of biometric, otherwise if someone saw the watch, they might be tempted to steal.

something like a credit or eftpos card perhaps? :)

Something faster, and with zero (or very close to zero) transaction fees. Also, something that people aren't afraid to lose (like a credit card), and which is pointless to steal, and where fraud is reduced. Something with a screen to show balances and other info.
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