CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance • Hacker News Board

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#71

Post by losteric » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 5:52 PM UTC

hk__2 wrote: post #68

Normal_gaussian wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course a social uprising in Tunisia is very unlikely to spread to the USA. Movements in the UK, Australia and Canada however... As for staying off the wires. Thanks to the network effect you need to have a large portion of your network do the same.

How is a social uprising in Tunisia more likely to spread to the UK or Canada than the USA?

They're saying that Tunisian movements are unlikely to spread to the US, but movements in the UK/Canada can spread to the US.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#72

Post by mocana » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 6:08 PM UTC

I welcome the CIA's attempt at modernizing. Let's face it: their recent track record at predicting major social movements has been terrible. The Arab spring, Tianamen square. They found out like the rest of us: cable TV and Internet. Monitoring social networks would seem like a good approach. I am wary of this technology being pointed domestically. Supposedly the U.S. is not in the CIAs purview, but there is probably no legal impediment to "lending" it to the FBI, or Homeland Security or whatever.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#73

Post by gscott » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 6:25 PM UTC

gus_massa wrote: post #16

Dowwie wrote: post #13

Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.

It's the CIA, there is a high chance that they are spending more money to fuel the revolution.

The State Department especially are training foreign activists the CIA needs to look no further then there for 80% of where the unrest is fostered from.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#74

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 6:36 PM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #8

I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…

[deleted]

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#75

Post by ganwar » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 7:06 PM UTC

The article mentions deep learning as being one of the technologies that is being utilized here. I find it difficult to put all the pieces together on the efficacy of the system and the technologies being used as Deep learning is one of the most un-explanatory technology. That in turn raises some questions over the effectiveness of a system that predicts social and financial unrest. How did you do that?

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#76

Post by rboyd » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 7:23 PM UTC

Create wrote: post #56

api wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you could create AI agents to flood the Internet with seditious chatter.

Amongst many, IBM has done something that does this and the opposite. It was funded by public money (DoD).

That sounds pretty interesting. Where could I learn more on this?

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#77

Post by desireco42 » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 7:42 PM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #8

I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…

I would say CIA likes to organize those, so maybe they can use those pretend 'Siren Servers' to claim they can sense unrest.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#78

Post by dannypgh » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 8:17 PM UTC

SomeStupidPoint wrote: post #51

eternalban wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NGO is very commonly understood to mean Non-Govermental Organizations. OP proposes that staying "off wires" is a remedy. Simple point made is that intelligence agencies have recourse to wide ranging sensory networks, including NGOs (whether complicit or simply surveilled.)

Except that pointing out that an agency can, with investment, have limited, targeted active surveillance isn't really saying anything about what's effective from stopping that same agency from wide-scale, passive surveillance. NGOs (even in the case where you're having their help by carrying scanners around for you) aren't within orders of magnitude of the information collected by the average person carrying a cell-p…

NGOs aren't used by intelligence agencies as a means of boosting signal intelligence, they're used as a means of boosting human intelligence.

NGOs tend to have overlapping members and social circles as grassroots organizations. They don't need to gather cell phone signal intelligence, they can just ask their staffers "what do you think of these protests?"

Different threat vector entirely.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#79

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 8:23 PM UTC

steveeq1 wrote: post #66

icebraining wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'll find a lot of false positives, as unfortunately that alert will be sent more than once a week: http://www.killedbypolice.net/ (M/B means Male/Black)

Yes, and what percentage of those killings are actually justified? The police have an inherently dangerous profession.

[deleted]

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#80

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Oct 08, 2016, 8:26 PM UTC

steveeq1 wrote: post #66

icebraining wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'll find a lot of false positives, as unfortunately that alert will be sent more than once a week: http://www.killedbypolice.net/ (M/B means Male/Black)

Yes, and what percentage of those killings are actually justified? The police have an inherently dangerous profession.

[deleted]