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As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#71

Hum, do we really need to see this as white and black. Work or no-work? Why not just introduce 30 hours/week or even 25 hours/week. And by that I mean employees keep the same weekly salary, companies use the gain in productivity by automation to give back some family time to employees. What we get in exchange, is one or 2 extra days of consumer spending. People tend to spend more during weekends anyways, so everybody…

Businesses don't want to hire people at 20 hours a week if they are willing to work 40. And this isn't black and white - we have been in transition to mental labor automation for the past 50 years. We have just been replacing desirable industry jobs with service jobs that people hate with a passion, as wealth inequality grows and those dropped out of economic potential switch to basically waiting on those that have not yet fallen.

UBI I would argue is much more desirable, if you were going to try to legally force 20 hour work weeks. UBI actually lets you absolve a lot of historical regulation that holds industries and growth back, that was all established as an attempt to protect the poor and uneducated from exploitation. When everyone has an easily accessible minimum standard of living, regulations in the workplace can be retired to enable more innovation since the workers can finally negotiate evenly with the employer rather than being exploited to survive. It also lets those workers with the ethic to do so to spend as much time as they want making as much money as they want, knowing they won't starve or go homeless when they stop.

Either you keep cracking up the extreme regulatory machine currently asphyxiating the American corporate sphere (ever wonder why all the innovation is in software? It isn't just because its new, it is also because relative to almost everything else it is extremely unregulated) or you just use increased taxes on unfettered growth to provide for the masses so that the unleashed potential doesn't destroy lives.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#72
post #16

Guaranteed income is not a solution. Sure housing and food are the most 2 important things but people need to feel they are needed in the society.

Without having to toil for survival, people would be much more open to participating in bettering their communities outside just doing whatever can net them the most profit. Easily expect volunteering and charity to dramatically rise under a UBI.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#73
post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

There will certainly be difficulties to overcome. People like to do stuff and Videogames actually will help with the transition as they provide outlets for that energy that are inexpensive (vs other forms of entertainment) and also build skills among the unemployed in a way that TV and Movies cannot.

One way to make the transition more cleanly is to pair a gradual introduction of basic income, with a commensurate gradual reduction of the minimum wage. The reduced labor costs will spur economic growth and innovation without any paired reduction in consumer spending which would inhibit that growth. A gradual introduction means we have time to notice and address problems as they crop up.

As long as all the work we want to have done is getting done, we are better off having people who enjoy and take satisfaction the work doing it

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#74
post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

To convince yourself that you live in a perfect meritocracy where anyone who fails does so solely because of moral deficiency or laziness is the most dangerous delusion you could inflict upon yourself. The story of millennials playing video games in mom's basement conveniently fits that narrative of moral outrage.

In fact there is a growing group of people who, being force to work in sectors where they compete with overseas workers who are brutal exploited by ruthless dictatorships or, to a much lesser degree, have their work obsoleted by technology, realize they have no hope of a 'normal' life. No hope of home ownership, of giving their kids a better life via college and who look at an old age of likely homeless or at best extreme poverty.

If we continue to disregard the problem of lack of mobility and the inequalities the current economy is producing, it will be forcibly fixed for us in catastrophic ways and we will end up with political extremism that dwarfs the current election cycle.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm hones…

You are asking an unreasonable question; could the Luddites have predicted the economy of 1900, 1950, or 2000? If we have never been capable of making an accurate forecast, it would be unreasonable to expect that today.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm hones…

[deleted]

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#77
post #58

Every time I hear arguments about basic incomes, I think of universe 25. http://mysteriousuniverse.org/2015/03/the-amazing-rise-and-f... Fundamentally, we're all animals and due to physics and material constraints, there's scarcity involved. By giving a basic income, we're pretty much ignoring the fact that eventually we will run out of water and food and manufactured goods.

You can't relate the rodent utopia experiments as a defense of having to keep people in need of basic necessities to survive or they lose the will to live. Besides the fact you are comparing rats to people, even the study itself considers all the localized factors that contributed to societal collapse: * You are isolating them in a relatively small space with one another. * You have uncontrolled population growth. *…

> * You are isolating them in a relatively small space with one another. * You have uncontrolled population growth. * You are using a species that naturally trends towards "clan wars" for territory. * They are rats, and thus have nothing productive to do with their time in the absence of survival.

Are we talking about rats or humans now? Only your fourth assertion is rat specific. All the other observations are true of the human condition. We now have 7.4 billion human beings in the world right now, and it's the developing countries, you know with clan warfare and living in relatively small spaces that have uncontrolled population growth.

> Also, it is incredibly nihilistic to think that human beings need to toil to survive or else life is without meaning or we will collapse society.

Just because it's nihilistic doesn't mean it doesn't hold truth. It seems that your objections are rooted more in your worldview and philosophy rather than objective arguments you're bringing up. They even bring up this point in the experiment, where he mentioned the "beautiful ones", who forgot how to breed and spent all day grooming themselves.

> We already know that in first world countries people reproduce less. That isn't even a function of economic well being directly but a function of education, which relates precisely back to how humans aren't just animals acting on instinct.

I don't think it's a function of education. Do you have a citation? You could easily read this as saying, people in the first world are incented not to have children, as they have seen how children generally make parents unhappier and would prefer against that.

> It is the same mind that elevated mankind above all other animals that can stop us from destroying ourselves as we eliminate survival as a daily concern.

I think that's where the difference lies between our points of view. I think that most people are creatures of instinct, and our conscious mind is constantly trying to justify our actions after the fact with logic. If we really have elevated minds, how come many intelligent and educated people have differing opinions on things? Why are we still debating global warming, and having wars over religion?

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm hones…

Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom.

Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm hones…

Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom. Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.

> "driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom."

All of which can be automated.

Furthermore...

> "highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor"

None of those jobs are safe from automation either. Your personal productivity means diddly squat compared to fast automated interconnected machines that can teach themselves. Engineers and traders are just as expendable as the rest of us.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#80
post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand one - those costs are tax deductible. The problem is tax policy at the top end is basically saying some tiny number of people can be hoarders, not innovate, and then aristocratically hand it off to their kids in the form of trusts that don't pay inheritance tax.

Very possibly some kind of basic income would help people be more mobile, move from expensive cities to less expensive cities. But I also think as likely is higher taxes would incentivize the very rich to invest. Rich investors = good. Rich savers = bad.

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