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‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

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Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#71
post #8

I'm curious - does anyone else think that the equality that matters is equality in material outcomes? I think that would be such a boring world. The real equality that matters is equality in dignity as human beings, equality before the law, equality in our respect to each other. I think the developed world has made monumental strides on these fronts, which are spreading around the world too. (Even though, of course,…

Tyler Cowen addressed this in an interview, saying that the inequality that "really matters" is the difference in your living standard versus your sister's husband[1].

[1]: http://www.hudson.org/events/1356-are-plutocrats-drowning-ou...

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#72
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you give up on my point regarding experimental sciences (which was what Popper was about) and the rest -- like economy, palaeontology etc? The scientific method is what is used by the experimental ("hard") sciences. Do you really not know this? This is the start of the second paragraph of Popper's wikipedia page, defining what he wrote about: "Popper is known for his rejection of the classical inductivist views on…

Thanks, judging by your refusal to answer my question you do seem to understand that your position is indefensible.

You ignored that I argued your questions about Popper is not relevant for my point [edit: if nothing else, that argument also applies to astrophysics, archaeology, history, etc], so your dismissal here forces me to dismiss you as a serious debater.

Enough.

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#73
post #32
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is, your statement presupposes most people of the field are either idiots, fanatics or crooks. Kind of like there have been hundreds of thousands of Freudian psychoanalysts (considered scientists) in the 20th century until now? Or how people consider (and increasingly clinics embrace) homeopathists as doctors and scientists? With their own educational programs, journals and everything too. In any case there's…

So you lack references (without an ideological angle) that dismiss economics as a science -- which I asked after? That some sciences can't use the scientific method (do experiments etc) like some parts of geology, don't counter my point. [Edit: Unless your point really is that you dismiss palaeontology et al in an equal way, too?] (Or are you arguing that 80% of most everything which aren't based on mathematical proo…

>So you lack references (without an ideological angle) that dismiss economics as a science -- which I asked after?

That's the best you could deduce from my comment?

For starters, given the main claim I made (that economics is not a science), and considering that whether is true or false is under question, the last thing one could logically ask for, regarding that, would be citations.

For who would make those?

Surely not physicists or mathematicians, etc. (since it's not their job). And surely not economists for it IS their job.

If my claim was true, economists admitting it would be like homeopathists or freudian psychoanalysts saying their fields are non-scientific. It just ain't gonna happen, or it will be marginal at best.

Ever more profoundly though, should we actually evaluate arguments, or only think pre-made thoughts coming to us by way of citations?

Because the latter is not scientific either -- one needs to evaluate citations too. And no, peer review is not infallible in that either (in case one thinks citations are some golden truth they can always accept because they're peer reviewed. In fact a good majority of papers even in hard sciences have been found in meta-studies to be reproducible and others plain wrong (the so-called reproducability crisis).

Assuming it it the same and worse in economics, which is not a hard science, already makes most of my point.

That said, here are some sources:

https://www.amazon.com/Dismal-Science-Economist-Undermines-C... https://www.amazon.com/Economics-Rules-Rights-Wrongs-Science... https://www.amazon.com/Puzzle-Modern-Economics-Science-Ideol... https://www.amazon.com/Economics-Mathematical-Politics-Dimin...

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#74
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think conspiracy theory is the right word for it. The world isn't ever that neat :) His statement, when you refine it appropriately (which is not always done in an online forum), only presupposes that most people of the field who are visible to the public are "either idiots, fanatics or crooks". I wouldn't phrase it quite so strongly (and for what it's worth, the grandparent didn't either), but it's easy to s…

>> I wonder what you would even accept as a "non-ideological source"? Since no references, which I asked for, have been presented at all, that is not an interesting problem... >> the grandparent didn't [phrase it strongly] either Uh, "scientific content in most economists is zero." is not strong? >> All that said, it's not like the economics profession is an entirely lost cause. There are people like Dean Baker and J…

There was no talk of "idiots and fanatics" in the comment you replied to, hence the "not phrase it so strongly" part.

> Why do you assume that "alternative voices" are better than the research consensus of a field?

It's not an assumption, it's a conclusion from my period of digging into that stuff ;-)

(And it's also not that all alternative voices are always better. It's that there are flaws in the economic research consensus that are clearly visible to an interested outsider who sees the alternative voices and listens to them equally.)

The clearest and most painful example of this is that in the face of close to a decade of extremely clear evidence (in the form of comparing the Eurozone to other advanced economies, mostly), most economists discussing fiscal matters still make no distinction between governments that are monetarily sovereign and those that aren't.

It should be natural to assume that there's likely a qualitative distinction to be made between governments that can go bankrupt and those that cannot - there might be reasons why that isn't so, but then one needs to make an argument.

So you get things like the once famous Reinhart & Rogoff paper about government debt ratios - which has been thoroughly discredited, but even the people doing the discrediting typically didn't point out the problem of ignoring monetary sovereignty.

> Certainly you'll find paid research in any field with policy influences. Smoking comes to mind. Please make it likely that most of the [economy] field is corrupt, as the GP argued?

I assume you would assign the "smoking" issue to the field of medicine. Which percentage of research in medicine would you expect to be closely related to public policy? Which percentage in economics?

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#75
post #73
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you lack references (without an ideological angle) that dismiss economics as a science -- which I asked after? That some sciences can't use the scientific method (do experiments etc) like some parts of geology, don't counter my point. [Edit: Unless your point really is that you dismiss palaeontology et al in an equal way, too?] (Or are you arguing that 80% of most everything which aren't based on mathematical proo…

> So you lack references (without an ideological angle) that dismiss economics as a science -- which I asked after? That's the best you could deduce from my comment? For starters, given the main claim I made (that economics is not a science), and considering that whether is true or false is under question, the last thing one could logically ask for, regarding that, would be citations. For who would make those? Surely…

>> If my claim was true, economists admitting it would be like homeopathists or freudian psychoanalysts saying their fields are non-scientific. It just ain't gonna happen, or it will be marginal at best.

You do realize that is how the creationists argue about the biology academics? :-(

The problem is that to show something completely wrong (a year or two ago, you'd probably have linked to Picketty?) is a good way to make a career.

If you want to make a better argument for your position, go to post modernists or some other of the political sciences which generally have disappeared ten years later.

You could make a point, which I'd agree with, that your position is stronger than a conspiracy theory, there are too many precedents. But to dismiss a field of research, you really need better support.

>> should we actually evaluate arguments, or only think pre-made thoughts coming to us by way of citations?

Far outside our areas, that is a good heuristic...

About your references:

* Stephen A. Marglin seems to argue that the small society might be better. It is an interesting and important point. E.g. communism works OK in a village, but not for larger areas. Afaik, he don't present an alternative? (No one thinks the present democracy or capitalism is perfect, we just haven't found anything better.)

* "The Puzzle of Modern Economics: Science or Ideology?" got good reviews, but only by five readers. This seems to be a good overview:

"Is [economy] a.) dangerous mathematical formalism, b.) free market ideology, or c.) a vital guide to practical action? The correct answer, he concludes, is d.) all of the above"

Well, that isn't exactly controversial, is it? :-)

* Dani Rodrik seems to argue about when economy is a useful tool? It don't support that zero scientific content claim, either.

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is immaterial?!? As Homer Simpson once said (to his brain): "money can be exchanged for goods and services" - like healthcare, education, important stuff....

> immaterial > 1. Having no matter or substance. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/immaterial

Pedantic and pathetic. I clarified what I meant by money, wealth.

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#77
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I don't see how it does. Could you show an example of a falsifiable economic theory? Thanks for the hint by the way, but it looks like a non sequitur to me. How does it follow that I don't know something from the Popper's job title?

Economy, palaeontology, archaeology, history and astrophysics can use computer models, look for data in the nature etc. Those can disqualify hypotheses. But you can't use the normal scientific method. I asked for references to disqualify economics (which aren't from obvious idealogical sources) -- none are presented. That tells me all I need to know. I don't need the epistemology of Popper or the more modern philosop…

>To disqualify one of these sciences because it isn't hard, you need to explain why don't also disqualify the rest of them.

All of them should be disqualified as well, with the exception of astrophysics which IS a hard science. Who said it isn't? Just because you can't directly observe from nearby a remote star to falsify your hypothesis etc doesn't mean you can't look at its energy emissions, radiation shifts due to speed, gravity effects to nearby bodies from its mass and volume etc. And a lot of astrophysics stuff related to composition of matter, nuclear reactions in a star, etc. are just plain physics. Not to mention when it cames to planets in the solar system, astrophysics very much can go (send probes etc) and gather empirical evidence directly.

History is no more "scientific" than economics -- both are ideological battlefields, where each thing is seen through the prism of the current preferences in each practitioner's era and circles.

Regarding palaeontology and archaeology both are full of BS too, but in the spectrum of hard vs soft sciences are closer to hard sciences than economics or history are, mostly the parts dealing with description and taxonomy of findings rather than their wild theorizing.

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#78
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I wonder what you would even accept as a "non-ideological source"? Since no references, which I asked for, have been presented at all, that is not an interesting problem... >> the grandparent didn't [phrase it strongly] either Uh, "scientific content in most economists is zero." is not strong? >> All that said, it's not like the economics profession is an entirely lost cause. There are people like Dean Baker and J…

There was no talk of "idiots and fanatics" in the comment you replied to, hence the "not phrase it so strongly" part. > Why do you assume that "alternative voices" are better than the research consensus of a field? It's not an assumption, it's a conclusion from my period of digging into that stuff ;-) (And it's also not that all alternative voices are always better. It's that there are flaws in the economic research…

What you write there is interesting, you should have led with that. :-) Could you give me some pointers?

Coming from Sweden, we have a consensus culture. That makes it possible for the media and the politicians to whip up a frenzy and change the acceptable opinions. The point is, you don't have to dig so deep to find official lies. Quite a few of the whistle blowers are economists. I do believe a large subset in the profession have integrity.

>> I assume you would assign the "smoking" issue to the field of medicine. Which percentage of research in medicine would you expect to be closely related to public policy? Which percentage in economics?

Let me put it like this -- Sweden recently got a professor (instated by the government) in the state defence research arm, specialized in gender. He tends to write articles supporting whatever the government likes... :-)

Regarding research -- smoking was not public policy, but purely company interests. All of health questions regarding choices of medicine, treatments and diet are interesting to lots of interest groups. (And age verification of young people was a big thing in Sweden regarding the immigration -- the international research consensus was thrown out...)

The national economy researchers are much fewer. But there are also quite a variation internationally on how politically influenced academics are. Also, what is sensitive in some countries can be researched in others with e.g. a different infrastructure.

In my native Sweden, the health research is probably more interesting to influence than the economic departments at universities. The political parties are interested in the economists. The big corporations don't really care, they talk to the parties directly. (Corporatism, yes..)

>> There was no talk of "idiots and fanatics" in the comment you replied to, hence the "not phrase it so strongly" part.

The statement "scientific content in most economists is zero" needs that the practitioners are either idiots, crooks or fanatics.

But sure, I'll back down here. A group of people studying a subject without any feedback and internal tests can go crazy, obviously. coldtea used the example Freudians. You might use post modernists too -- any group with a common preconceived opinion about how the world works might become a cult.

There is just to much precedent in the crazier part of academia for my argument.

Still, to dismiss an old field of research needs damn good support.

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#79
post #75
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you lack references (without an ideological angle) that dismiss economics as a science -- which I asked after? That's the best you could deduce from my comment? For starters, given the main claim I made (that economics is not a science), and considering that whether is true or false is under question, the last thing one could logically ask for, regarding that, would be citations. For who would make those? Surely…

>> If my claim was true, economists admitting it would be like homeopathists or freudian psychoanalysts saying their fields are non-scientific. It just ain't gonna happen, or it will be marginal at best. You do realize that is how the creationists argue about the biology academics? :-( The problem is that to show something completely wrong (a year or two ago, you'd probably have linked to Picketty?) is a good way to…

>You do realize that is how the creationists argue about the biology academics? :-(

You do realize that I don't care who else argues something in a particular way in another domain, as long as an argument is correct in another domain!

>The problem is that to show something completely wrong (a year or two ago, you'd probably have linked to Picketty?) is a good way to make a career.

Not really. To piss on your own field, is a good way to be considered a pariah, a conspiracy theorist, a nut job etc. Not many grants coming to the self-doubting economist, and policy advisor positions either.

>But to dismiss a field of research, you really need better support.

Like self-deprecating citations from practitioners in the field?

(Even if expecting that is illogical to begin with -- since economics is what puts food on their table --, you'd be surprised how many economists have written self-deprecating critiques about economics)

Re: ‘No Empirical Evidence’ for Thomas Piketty’s Inequality Theory

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> immaterial > 1. Having no matter or substance. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/immaterial

Pedantic and pathetic. I clarified what I meant by money, wealth.

which is not any less abstract and immaterial. There is no unit of wealth you could compare, or if there is, I'd like to know.
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