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I once sold a $1 beer to a friend for $2. Let's back-of-the envelope that: 100% markup, $1 profit. If I buy and sell 1 billion beers per year, that's a profit of $1B/year. Ok, so given a 5 year return on investment, that means my beer business is valued at $5 billion.And if you've convinced enough people that this is the case, so you get at least a few million dollars in investment, that would mean your company indeed has some value.
But selling $1 of beer of $2 to a friend once never got anybody anywhere.
You seem to conflate what happens in micro-micro-scale with what should be shown to be able to happen in the macro-world, for a valuation like $5 billion to start involving people investing lots of real money.
In other words, sure, valuations are based on extrapolation, but it's BS to think they're the same as (or based on) any small-scale extrapolation of an statistically insignificant transation (selling $2 worth of beer).
When the volume/sales/eyeballs/etc get so many that people start actually investing big money according to a large-sh valuation, the company has already passed a lot of basic tests...