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Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

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Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#71

Post by lallysingh »

aerovistae wrote: post #9

To anyone who's paid close attention to Tesla and to Elon's various offhand remarks to the press and on Twitter, this was all easy to see coming, every bit of it. But now that he's confirmed it all officially: this NUTS . This is so awesome. The press is going to go crazy with this. I wonder what will happen to Uber...seems like it will be hard for them to compete with the rates of cars that don't have to pay their d…

Do you think they'll have solar panels on the trailer? Would they have to roll them on/off when they switch trailers?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#72

Post by wahnfrieden »

JeffL wrote: post #41
thucydides wrote: post #23

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

Maybe that would be a good thing? Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If the cars aren't causing pollution or gridlock, what's so bad about living in the suburbs?

>If the cars aren't causing pollution

There's the rub

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#73

Post by AceJohnny2 »

mulcahey wrote: post #26
jonny_eh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber's been likely working on self-driving cars, potentially in partnership with Google. What Tesla has as an advantage though, is an assembly line to produce lots of quality cars. In other words, Tesla will likely be ready for the future of transportation before Uber.

I also think that Tesla will have an easier time acquiring top talent in both the autonomy software and manufacturing. Uber/Google have to partner with Old Guard automotive companies.

Not necessarily. A lot of people have wisened up to Musk's invasive and destructive management style. Don't think the frequent departures from the company at all levels of hierarchy have gone unnoticed.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#74

Post by aerovistae »

serge2k wrote: post #40
aerovistae wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost as if he's delivered on everything he promised while running the two most difficult companies in America simultaneously! "We'll never have reusable rockets, what a joke..."

> It's almost as if he's delivered on everything he promised hasn't Tesla repeatedly missed price points and delivery dates. Or are those not promises. I actually think most of what he is talking about is pretty doable. The ones I'm skeptical of are his talk about the massive factory improvements (in a few years too?) and the magic buses with no aisles or entrances. By what measure are Tesla and SpaceX the "two most…

I'm actually curious about the bus, too. Sounds weird. But I trust his judgement, I'm sure it'll be great. He has a track record, you know.

Regarding missed promises, if you're saying that as if to suggest that what he's promised isn't nonetheless coming true at a pace faster than anyone else could have possibly delivered, I think you're wearing blinders.

Regarding "most difficult".......are you aware of other companies working on something as technologically and logistically and legally challenging as SpaceX and Tesla????

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#75

Post by lallysingh »

sudoscript wrote: post #66
jonny_eh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber's been likely working on self-driving cars, potentially in partnership with Google. What Tesla has as an advantage though, is an assembly line to produce lots of quality cars. In other words, Tesla will likely be ready for the future of transportation before Uber.

Also millions of miles of fleet learning a day, which Uber doesn't have, since they don't own the cars. Self-driving cars is a supervised learning problem, and he who has the data wins

There's also the matter of that laser scanner on some cars - usually costing more than the car...

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#76

Post by JoshTriplett »

BurningFrog wrote: post #44
thucydides wrote: post #23

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

Parking becomes mostly obsolete, freeing up huge amounts of central city areas.

Cities already tend to have limited parking. We might see more parking structures located in cheap out-of-the-way locations rather than near places people want to go. And street parking could go away in favor of consolidated parking structures, freeing up road space for both car traffic (with extra lanes) and foot traffic (widen sidewalks).

But I think it'll have an even larger effect on suburban areas. Shopping centers, strip malls, and similar will no longer need to have massive flat single-story parking lots, freeing up a huge amount of space. Likewise for major employers, and commuter parking lots for mass transit.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#77

Post by akira2501 »

thucydides wrote: post #23

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

> If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy.

If you're an American you're more likely to die from suicide than you are from motor vehicle related injuries. You're more likely to be poisoned than to die in a motor vehicle crash. You're 16 times more likely to die from heart disease or cancer.

Compared to 1950, motor vehicle death rates have more than halved.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#79

Post by CaptSpify »

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

I've only mildly followed him, but I remember hearing he is extremely aggressive with his timelines. Is he normally so far off on his estimates?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#80

Post by Vik1ng »

mrfusion wrote: post #22

I didn't understand what enables them to get rid of aisles inside buses? People still need to reach their seats right?

Also sounds like it's written by someone who has never used public transport his entire life. In my bus in the morning 70% of the passengers are standing not sitting.
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