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AMD stock up 52%

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Re: AMD stock up 52%

#71

Post by profquail »

ashitlerferad wrote: post #68
inglor wrote: post #64

Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://am…

Isn't insider trading illegal?

Insiders are allowed to trade the stock of the company they work for. They just can't make a trade which is motivated by non-public insider knowledge. For example, if the company was going to have another bad quarter the insiders can't dump their stock in advance of the public release date. Most of the time, insiders will have a schedule set up and announced well ahead of time for when they want to sell stock, to avoid being accused of selling in reaction to some negative event for the company.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#72

Post by tcoppi »

inglor wrote: post #64

Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://am…

AMD has been keeping real Zen info much closer to their chest than Bulldozer info ever was, fueling speculation that they might have another flop on their hands, especially since Jim Keller left right after it taped out. Their future at this point all rides on if they can survive the next 1.5-2 years with little cash while getting Zen to the marketplace and hoping it is competitive with whatever Intel is putting out in the meantime.

That being said, I think Zen is entering in a much better position to succeed than Bulldozer was - They're entering with a leading-edge 14nm process from Glofo, which has been producing for a year at this point, at good performance and yields by all accounts. Glofo's 32nm process that Bulldozer is on was less than stellar and never really achieved good power consumption. What we do know about Zen's architecture also seems much more conventional and "fat and wide" than Bulldozer, a design which Intel and AMD previous to Bulldozer were pulling off successfully for years. Bulldozer's module design might have been good in theory, but single-threaded performance suffered too much compared to the fat and wide design.

If they can match Intel performance at even slightly lower price points, which seems likely given the above, I think they will easily survive the near to medium term, and if they are somehow able to do even better than that, we might be in another 2003-2007 era for Intel where they struggle to play catch up for the next few years. Seems unlikely, but you never know.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#73

Post by inglor »

tcoppi wrote: post #72
inglor wrote: post #64

Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://am…

AMD has been keeping real Zen info much closer to their chest than Bulldozer info ever was, fueling speculation that they might have another flop on their hands, especially since Jim Keller left right after it taped out. Their future at this point all rides on if they can survive the next 1.5-2 years with little cash while getting Zen to the marketplace and hoping it is competitive with whatever Intel is putting out…

I've got my hands on some analyst reports about AMD about an hour ago (a little too late sadly) from a very respectable tech analyst (one of those wall street people with a 8 figure salary) which I can't share unfortunately.

I have to say that you hit very close to base - makes me wonder if you've also read the report or are the said analyst :) They speculate that Zen is actually a lot further ahead than AMD are willing to admit publicly.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#74

Post by petra »

bitL wrote: post #57

- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs P…

>> Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years

It's not true. Their 3DXpoint memory offers 10x GB/$ of dram, at a speed relatively close to dram.Leaving aside the huge impact on the storage market - Intel even did an exeriment[1] , taking a 8GB Dram computer and comparing it to a 256Mbte Dram(as cache) + 3DXpoint sitting on the main bus - and they performed equally.

If that's true(and 3DXpoint has the reliability for such usecase) - this means Intel could possible own the mobile market - and own the full stack of computing.

[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXurTRtmfWc&feature=youtu.be...

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#75

Post by tcoppi »

inglor wrote: post #73
tcoppi wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD has been keeping real Zen info much closer to their chest than Bulldozer info ever was, fueling speculation that they might have another flop on their hands, especially since Jim Keller left right after it taped out. Their future at this point all rides on if they can survive the next 1.5-2 years with little cash while getting Zen to the marketplace and hoping it is competitive with whatever Intel is putting out…

I've got my hands on some analyst reports about AMD about an hour ago (a little too late sadly) from a very respectable tech analyst (one of those wall street people with a 8 figure salary) which I can't share unfortunately. I have to say that you hit very close to base - makes me wonder if you've also read the report or are the said analyst :) They speculate that Zen is actually a lot further ahead than AMD are will…

I have no inside or nonpublic information, I'm just an interested observer working in a related industry :)

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#76

Post by chinhodado »

petra wrote: post #74
bitL wrote: post #57

- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs P…

>> Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years It's not true. Their 3DXpoint memory offers 10x GB/$ of dram, at a speed relatively close to dram.Leaving aside the huge impact on the storage market - Intel even did an exeriment[1] , taking a 8GB Dram computer and comparing it to a 256Mbte Dram(as cache) + 3DXpoint sitting on the main bus - and they performed equally. If that's true(a…

Was 3DXpoint released as an actual product in the past 5+ years? I think the post you replied to just talked about progress in actual, released-to-market products, not future R&D that we don't even have a release date for yet.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#77

Post by tcoppi »

ksec wrote: post #67
bitL wrote: post #57

- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs P…

Agree, last time the world had any significant CPU performance increase was SandyBridge, and that was the tipping point. Since then we have been using the same CPU performance with less energy usage. Apple already knows this that is why they continue to refine in other areas ( Macbook being a prime example ) rather then providing more and more performance where the user don't need / feel. Interestingly 2011 was also…

I agree, Zen + already great GPU designs from AMD in an APU package could be just what AMD needs right now to regain volume PC sales. I think they might actually have a better chance of succeeding here than in the server space where absolute performance/watt is more valued than in PCs and notebooks, but I still think for AMD to really regain their glory(and profits) they need to have the top performing CPU for a while and let it trickle down to APUs instead of eating scraps at the bottom of the pile like they are now.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#78

Post by fragsworth »

inglor wrote: post #64

Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://am…

After looking at all those links, I couldn't see anything that would have predicted the deals they're expecting with console vendors. That's the main reason their revenue shot up.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#79

Post by tcoppi »

arca_vorago wrote: post #54
pearjuice wrote: post #33

It is quite surprising that AMD has been undervalued for so long. Would't be surprised by more radical upwards corrections.

I have a slightly different take on AMD these days, in that I don't think they were undervalued, at least not too much, but rather I think they saw the direction the future held and jumped at it, thinking they would be ahead of intel, mostly in their understanding of the merging of cpu and gpu. I simply think they did it a bit too fast and left their other offerings with too little resources, but now that they are us…

The ATI acquisition was very forward looking, the problem is the hardware and software stack required to make APUs successful was nowhere close to ready at the time. We are just now seeing small enough process nodes that can support real GPU performance on the same die as a decent CPU, though the software isn't there yet still it is much closer. If Zen can match/beat Intel and it scales well enough down to APUs I think they might finally find their market, and Zen on the server should be a killer as well if that is the case, as AMD has always done really well at shoving lots of cores in small packages.

Re: AMD stock up 52%

#80

Post by willtim »

ksec wrote: post #67
bitL wrote: post #57

- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs P…

Agree, last time the world had any significant CPU performance increase was SandyBridge, and that was the tipping point. Since then we have been using the same CPU performance with less energy usage. Apple already knows this that is why they continue to refine in other areas ( Macbook being a prime example ) rather then providing more and more performance where the user don't need / feel. Interestingly 2011 was also…

The state of Skylake software support over the last year for both Linux and Windows (with many Linux issues still unresolved) kills any excitement I might have had for future intel products. To be honest, I'd rather have a slower passively cooled ARM chip, at least then my ultrabook wouldn't sound like a jet engine when some background task kicks in (not to mention battery drain consequences).
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