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The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

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Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. You can measure boat and rail traffic, but what about the digital economy? http://www.aei.org/publication/its-official-a-lost-decade-fo... : "One potential explanation that reconciles these observations is that structural changes in the US economy may have resulted in a statistical understatement of real GDP growth. There are several possible areas of concern, but the rapid growth of software and digital cont…

Which is all the more reason to treat technology not as an externality as it's being done now but as an integral part of GDP.

At least now, yes. It was certainly an odd market before, somewhat segregated from other industries, but now technology is the driver behind all sorts of market moves - from lower prices to lower costs and higher profit margins to being part of almost every advantage one competitor gains over another.

I think people imagine "technology" is only Uber et al and can still be segregated into its own market, but some of the most interesting tech developments and software engineering are happening far from the Silicon Valley app-culture.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#72
post #9

There are other reasons why Baltic Dry Index is falling - new megaships are reducing shipping costs. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/11/20/dont-aban...

The BDI is a summation of a lot of information into a single price point. Megaships, and the general push for more fuel efficiency in new ship builds do impact it to some extent, but not to the degree necessary to account for a major push down.

Megaships, in general, don't work for the general shipping case. They work well for oil and containers where clients are either purchasing a small segment of the ship and their goods fit in 40' containers or they're buying millions of barrels of oil and need to move it halfway around the world. These ships are also port/canal limited. Most of the megaships cannot traverse the Suez or Panama canals and get forced to take the long way around, which can increase shipping time, and many of them cannot use most ports in the world. The new megacontainer ships are extremely limited because existing ports need to spend a significant chunk of capital to increase their capacity. Oil tankers, on the other hand, can lighter off the coast and either use offshore booms to transfer to shore via undersea pipelines or offload onto smaller tankers who take it into port.

The biggest driver in shipping costs is fuel. Yes, shipping is efficient in a tonnes/gallon ratio sense, but it still ain't cheap to fill up the tank. As oil prices plummet, it reduces the costs of operating tankers which increases the profit margin for the operating company and allows them to reduce prices in order to gain business. The second biggest driver is business. Companies position their assets where business is and if a lot of people have put their ships near the business, the business can negotiate a lower rate which will push the BDI down in price.

Source: I've built systems designed to track the maritime shipping market and the impact on commodities.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#73
There are a number of people who are perplexed. And that leads to a lot of speculation. There is also seems to be a strong survivor bias in economic reporting so everyone wants to be on record as both foretelling doom and not-doom, then depending on what happens they hope you'll remember they were "right".

Either way, there are interesting questions here which are unanswered. Like why do companies have so much money in their cash accounts? Generally, if a company is accumulating cash it isn't re-investing to grow. And while that might mean a planned acquisition of some other company the phenomena has gone on long enough that this seems less likely [1]. So why the cash hoard? For people it might be a 'rainy day' fund but does anyone believe that these companies will sit there, paying salaries, while selling few goods, waiting for the demand to return?

Or is it that the rent seeking transactions have become such a burden that it has been completely damping out new demand? One of the interesting thoughts is that if you go back and fix copyright and patents such that their terms expire in a more reasonable amount of time, or in the case of patents they are carefully scruitinized, then you take away this rent stream from big content and a number of license funded entities, that forces them to go out and make new content, or come up with new patented things, rather than just collect license fees. That creates new economic activity and that boosts GDP. It is a point of view that is gaining some adherents as a drag on economic growth.

Shipping as a leading indicator though has a couple of problems, both with isolating improvements in the industry (supermax ships) and shifts in modalities (air freight being acceptable for high margin goods like iphones) and generally the way consumption and manufacturing is changing (China's economic growth has zero impact on shipping if they pulling their bulk goods in over land and shipping locally).

Mostly though I suspect that there are lots of things that are unprecedented and so folks who are trying to plan are in a world of hurt in terms of confidence in their predictions. And like the reference to the movie in the article, it is always safer to predict doom and then report on "avoiding" it, than to mis-predict non-doom and to have it land at your feet. Hence more and more economists are saying "The world economy is toast!" rather than "I wonder if this is what it looks like at the leading edge of the switch away from a scarcity economy?" Sure, we could be approaching the singularity/jackpot what have you, but if you say that and the instead you get the biggest economic depression ever, well that is a worse outcome for the predictors.

[1] In an related note, having 10s of billions of dollars in cash means a company can do dozens of "10 - 50M" acquihire type deals, and that is driving some of the seed investing thinking I believe.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#74
The dry index is a poor predictor of future economic health or stock market returns http://greyenlightenment.com/economics-myths-part-7-the-balt...

The index was flat in the 80' and 90's yet the global economy boomed.

Not sure why stories that are sensationalist hyperbole get voted to the front page anyway

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#76
post #9

There are other reasons why Baltic Dry Index is falling - new megaships are reducing shipping costs. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/11/20/dont-aban...

I invested a little in Dry Bulk right after the recession. The reason it's out for the count is a lot of players entered the market on expensive debt at the height of the Recession, taking the long bet that shipping would recover, which it did.

There was a brief glimmer of hope a few years ago when most of these companies refinanced their debt. The P/E ratios for most of these companies are incredibly low, but even still they are a bad investment. The structure of a lot of these companies is odd as well. They are often structured as shell companies wrapped around a private entity that actually employs everyone and does all the work. I'm guessing some companies have some pretty nice, debt financed, salaries for upper management.

Given the glut of shipping supply, and our current, modest recovery, I find BDI's tulmult to be less surprising than the sun rise this morning.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#77
post #2

These charts are meaningless with such a short history, at least include 2008 in them.

I also don't appreciate that the Y axes are not 0-based.

You don't have to zero base line charts. You need to zero base bar charts and area charts but not line charts.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#78
post #75

Is global trade reverting to the mean? Yes. Does that make it "toast"? No. The media treats every market correction as a crash much to the delight of value investors and bottom feeders. Hysteria is a great time to buy.

Seriously, I'm grabbing as much VFINX as I can. It's priced at February 2014 levels right now. That's a silly price for two pretty good years of global economic growth.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#79
post #78
post #75

Is global trade reverting to the mean? Yes. Does that make it "toast"? No. The media treats every market correction as a crash much to the delight of value investors and bottom feeders. Hysteria is a great time to buy.

Seriously, I'm grabbing as much VFINX as I can. It's priced at February 2014 levels right now. That's a silly price for two pretty good years of global economic growth.

Is that same as S&P? Not sure I can get Vanguard from here.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#80

The dry index is a poor predictor of future economic health or stock market returns http://greyenlightenment.com/economics-myths-part-7-the-balt... The index was flat in the 80' and 90's yet the global economy boomed. Not sure why stories that are sensationalist hyperbole get voted to the front page anyway

Bacause we believe in what we read, acritically, more often than we should.
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