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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#691

Post by gzread »

anticodon wrote: post #424
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

West is living in its own bubble of misinformation. Including the government. On many occasions I've read self-soothing wishful thinking messages about my country. In 2022 it was that Russian army is fleeing, all Russian tanks were burned down, and Russian soldiers are deserting from a front lines with a speed of 100,000 persons a day. Here on HN. Written by the people who had no clue how to distinguish Russian tank…

How can you convince me that your real information is more real than my real information?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#692

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tw1984 wrote: post #674
AYBABTME wrote: post #665

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

love your very cute assumption that China is going to sit there and do nothing. you must be living in the Disneyland?

> assumption that China is going to sit there and do nothing

One of the few advantages this war might bring would be China letting American radars paint its kit.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#693

Post by nl »

fblp wrote: post #650
nl wrote: post #632

I think the correct way of viewing this war is around internal White House power games. I don't think Trump himself particularly cares about Iran (or indeed Israel) - as in I don't think he has strong heartfelt views or moral convictions that cause him to act one way or the other in the strategic sense. But there are those in the White House who do. My impression from afar is that JD Vance wouldn't have been very sup…

Of those options I'd guess Hedgseth as he seems to be the one cheering the war and also using Christian rhetoric. Trump has also suggested he may have relied on Hedgseths advice to scapegoats Hedgseth in recent days..

Yes reading more of recent news coverage I think this is the likely explanation.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#694

Post by klipt »

jltsiren wrote: post #354
sysguest wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's extremely hard to "make a lesson out of" Iran if you depend on moving oil past their borders it's not just gulf states -- look at who are the customers of those gulf states are. the whole asia, europe, and america -- the whole world is their customer. Even if it's "extremely hard", those countries have no choice but "make a lesson out of" iran -- just like what we did with pirates why would those "customers of…

The value of the oil / natural gas production in the Gulf states is not infinite. Nobody except the US has the force projection capacity to fight a major war against Iran. If they are not interested in fighting that war, the rest of the world will find that the cheapest and least disruptive option is to cut consumption. To assume that nobody is shipping oil and natural gas from the Gulf, until a new status quo emerge…

> the cheapest and least disruptive option is to cut consumption

And good for the environment!

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#695

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ZunarJ5 wrote: post #672
Animats wrote: post #585

The war should be over by March 31st. Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes 90 days later, and Netanyahu is not expected to win. Worse for Netanyahu, he's on trial for corruption charges, and once he's out of office, he's probably headed for jail. The war was intended to give Netanyahu's popularity a boost, but that did not work out. […

Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends.

> Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends

Israel and the U.S. can absolutely end the war and leave a turd in the Gulf states' mess kits. The former would focus on Hezbollah. The latter start laying into Cuba or whatever.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#696

Post by dripdry45 »

mrguyorama wrote: post #319
Dig1t wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: >Israel could force the United States into a war with Iran at any time. >It should go without saying that creating the conditions where the sometimes unpredictable junior partner in a security relationship can unilaterally bring the senior partner into a major conflict is an enormous strategic error, precisely because it means you end up in a war when it is in the junior partner’s interests to do so…

We had Israel friendly politicians for at least 50 years, all of which who eagerly wanted to fuck up Iran ("Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" anyone?) and we didn't because they were at least sober enough to understand that it was moronic and would obviously be some sort of strategic defeat or decades long boondoggle. No president has ever been this fucking stupid.

Look, if the goal over the last year has been to destroy America, it’s economy, it’s reputation… you basically couldn’t pick a better set of actions.

It seems pretty obvious that they’re trying to turn America into Russia. Crash everything, and let the oligarchs swoop in and buy up the shattered pieces. Then keep the people divided and depressed using media and drugs.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#697

Post by JumpCrisscross »

AYBABTME wrote: post #665

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

> the strategic window when it can do so

What's the latest thinking on the 2028 window?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#698

Post by YZF »

rawgabbit wrote: post #679
AYBABTME wrote: post #665

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

The continued stalemate will likely continue in my opinion. Continued daily strikes by the US and Iran squeezing the strait. China is severely squeezed by loss of oil. Russia benefits from rising oil prices. Everyone else will get to relive the 1970s. Stagflation here we come.

I don't think Iran can take a sustained air campaign for that long. They talk like they can but they can't. The only thing they have right now is their remaining ballistic missile (and to some extent) drone launch capabilities but that is going to keep getting degraded.

The US being a net exporter of oil should benefit from higher oil prices. Defense contractors will also benefit.

The 1970's were probably better than these days. ;)

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#699

Post by rawgabbit »

YZF wrote: post #698
rawgabbit wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The continued stalemate will likely continue in my opinion. Continued daily strikes by the US and Iran squeezing the strait. China is severely squeezed by loss of oil. Russia benefits from rising oil prices. Everyone else will get to relive the 1970s. Stagflation here we come.

I don't think Iran can take a sustained air campaign for that long. They talk like they can but they can't. The only thing they have right now is their remaining ballistic missile (and to some extent) drone launch capabilities but that is going to keep getting degraded. The US being a net exporter of oil should benefit from higher oil prices. Defense contractors will also benefit. The 1970's were probably better than…

I hope you are right. My concern is that the Iranian regime is a lot tougher than we may think.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#700

Post by bdangubic »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #695
ZunarJ5 wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends.

> Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends Israel and the U.S. can absolutely end the war and leave a turd in the Gulf states' mess kits. The former would focus on Hezbollah. The latter start laying into Cuba or whatever.

That would work great politically for both - we shot some bombs are basically realized we killed a bunch of innocent people/children and realized we gotta jet now achieving nothing but making sure Iran can continue even stronger than before (after China replenishes what was “bombed” in a few months?
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