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Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

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Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven’t seen any evidence of an army of agents producing unicorn companies. If this was the case we’d see a rash of < 10 employee startups being worth $1 billion, and to my knowledge that’s zero

Wait a few mouths. Also, Cursor made Microsoft’s 2 year blow their lead (with GitHub Copilot) with just 30 employees.

Honestly, Copilot is the worst of the AI tools at this point. IDK how they lost that lead so handily.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#692

I am in my 20s. At the moment I've got a part time job, but I am preparing myself for the worse. In the next few years I am planning to volunteer at farms through workaway. Maybe one day I can become self sustainable,tech and nutrition wise also getting into plumbing, curious to see what others are doing in this regard.

I got a new boiler installed recently. $20K. I looked up the _retail_ price for the components/fittings/consumables, ~$6K. Even with overhead, that plumber made a good take for 2 days work. I'm only half kidding when I suggest the kids of today should be destined for the trades.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#693

I've been lucky enough to stay employed, but eating a massive pay cut hurts. I have no realistic hope of getting back to my peak salary anytime soon . Jobs are now significantly more demanding too, do more and make less.

The last several years have been monotonically busier for me, year over year, and I've been a principal contributor in this game for many years. Sure, I can push out 1000 PRs a year by riding 4 concurrent agent hoards, but at some point our heads will simply explode. There's a human limit here, at some point.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#694

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you had a talent pipeline, you just didn't like how hands on it was or how it took time to develop. There's a lot of anger in this thread at companies for making obvious choices. If the perfect applicant happens to be looking for a job and it can save us the time and churn of switching someone internally, then yes: I would prefer to hire that person. > The whole hiring angle you describe seems silly in terms of…

I have to say I appreciate your aplomb in these responses. The whole thread is littered with shocking (and unsurprising?) tech-bro overconfidence that they can manage a situation they literally know nothing about better than someone who's already done it. Cheers to you and have a good weekend.

FWIW I don't think these are techbro responses. They're from people who are scared because the industry is changing. I think software folks were quite lucky that the job didn't change much from 2016-2022, due to the SaaS-ification of the old economy, so the skillset and working practices the industry sought was mostly standardized, and candidates mostly competed on salary. This is why there was so much job hopping both by companies offering high packages to new hires and employees who hopped every 1-2 years.

From 2022 this all changed as markets became more FCF sensitive, ZIRP went away, and AI started automating a lot of the dev practice. I know a sadly high amount of people (though in my circles not too many) who built up lifestyles predicated on high software salaries and a static set of requirements. A lot of these folks are angry and scared and desperately trying to navigate this changing world.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but it used to be. What mediums are you using for recruiters to contact you? Do you have a linked-in or are you applying directly to recruiting companies? Are you active anywhere else? Genuinely interested in how you're receiving so many recruitment emails. That used to be my go to way to hit the job market.

I'm not applying at all! Happy employed and not looking. They're mailing me through linkedIn (i have a profile, and it's not set to looking and i'm completely inactive there), and or finding my email on the internet somehow and going direct.

Thanks, I must just be going through a string of bad luck. I have a profile on Linkedin and my email is out there. Hoping things change for the better. I was laid off not long after Covid and have been having trouble finding something steady since.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#696
post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If offshoring started before your time, that might be coloring your perception. I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years…

The offshoring doomsayers made it seem like offshoring would contract the domestic market, but in fact the US software labor market has grown by >100% since that time. Median software engineer compensation is up something like 90% over inflation over the same period. Clearly it hasn't been all that big of a problem for SWEs in the US.

Yep, it was a 'momentary' glitch in the matrix ... Things came back even stronger then before, and 'off-shore' just became another tool. Its still around, but it hasn't destroyed the domestic programming industry. However, it was painful for a lot programmers at the time and _seemed_ like the end of the world to them...

Which is why I say, it reminds me very strongly of the current AI trend. AI won't 'go away' - but I don't think it will 'be the end' of programmers (at least not in the next 5-10 years). It will just become another tool

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#697
post #14

It sure looks like during the ZIRP era, tech substantially overhired. Post-ZIRP companies are correcting that (but under the guise of AI).

To save some a search: Zero Interest-Rate Policy

Thanks you. Not sure what an acronym was needed for that

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to say I appreciate your aplomb in these responses. The whole thread is littered with shocking (and unsurprising?) tech-bro overconfidence that they can manage a situation they literally know nothing about better than someone who's already done it. Cheers to you and have a good weekend.

FWIW I don't think these are techbro responses. They're from people who are scared because the industry is changing. I think software folks were quite lucky that the job didn't change much from 2016-2022, due to the SaaS-ification of the old economy, so the skillset and working practices the industry sought was mostly standardized, and candidates mostly competed on salary. This is why there was so much job hopping bo…

I know a lot of developers who have learned their skillset by rote from the early 2010s and have not progressed in competency (they still write code with the same issues as they did a decade ago) or technology (haven't been able to pick up technologies that they lacked when they started).

That puts them in a precarious place since the organization that downsizes would be looking at them first ... and that they haven't been able to attain any mastery of the newer technologies that are coming into play in the system.

For many of them, they're finding themselves leaning on AI to make up for the lack of learning new things (and without learning those new things). They're also realizing that any candidate who is more skilled than they are would be a stronger candidate (and that their job is increasingly becoming entering prompts into an LLM that is easily replaced).

Why they got to that spot and stopped? That's an open question. Some might have gotten comfortable at that spot. Others forcefully reject the idea that continuous learning outside of the 9-5 is needed (spend 40 hours a year learning a new technology). Others may lack the problem solving capabilities to go beyond that spot. I know I've seen all three of those. There are probably other reasons too.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#699
It's great, I'm in my 30's, two kids, relatively high income family, but can't make any financial decisions because it feels like on a dime we will be living paycheck to paycheck all while having zero debt. It's a stress I never thought I would have.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To save some a search: Zero Interest-Rate Policy

Thanks you. Not sure what an acronym was needed for that

It's a term that's been used in financial literature for a while.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_interest-rate_policy

> Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) is a macroeconomic concept describing conditions with a very low nominal interest rate, such as those in contemporary Japan and in the United States from December 2008 through December 2015 and again from March 2020 until March 2022 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

An article from 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc2008... (ZIRP is used 11 times in the document).

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