The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

We need a function that hits infinity at a finite time. That's the whole point of a singularity: a pole, a vertical asymptote, the math breaking:

Also interesting that tokens/$ which represents the energy constraint is the shallowest slope, and also weird taking it out doesn't impact the date. That's a red flag, as you would think removing the energy constraint would bind.

The author does in fact note that only the arXiv data fits this curve better than a line, and yeah: that's the one dataset that genuinely looks a little curved. But 1) it's a very noisy sort of curved, and 2) I'll bet it would fit a quadratic or an exponential or, heck, a sine function just as well. Introducing their process of doing the hyperbolic fit, they say, "The procedure is straightforward, which should concern you." And yeah, it does concern me: why does the author think that their standard-but-oversimplified attempt to fit a hand-chosen function to this mess is worth talking about? (And why put all of that analysis in the article, complete with fancy animated graph, when they knew that even their most determined attempt to find a signal failed to produce even a marginally supportive result 80% of the time?)

In short: none of the mathematical arguments used here to lead in to the article's discussion of "The Singularity" are worth listening to at all. They're pseudo-technical window dressing, meant to lend an undeserved air of rigor to whatever follows. So why should we pay attention to any of it?

Imagine we put a kid in a huge library of book who doesn't know how to write/read and knows nothing about what letter means etc. That kid stayed in the library and had a change for X amount time which will be enough to look over all of them.

what this will do is that not like us but somehow this kid managed to create patterns in the books.

After that X amount of time, we asked this Kid a question. "What is the capital of Germany?"

That kid will just have it is on kind of map/pattern to say "Berlin". Or kid might say "Berlin is the capital of the Germany" or "Capital of Germany is Berlin." The issue here is that we do not have the understanding of how this kid came of with the answer or what kind of "understanding" or "mapping" being used to reach this answer.

The other part basically shows we do not fully understand how LLM works is: Ask a very complex question to an AI. Like "explain me the mechanics of quantum theory like I am 8 years old".

1- Everytime, it will create differnt answer. Main point is the same but the letters/words etc would be different. Like the example I give above.There are unlimited type of answer AI can give you. 2- Can anyone in the Earth - a human - without a technology access for have unlimited amount of book/paper to check whatever info he needs - tell us the exact sentence/words will LLM use? No.

Then we do not have fully understand of LLM.

You can create a linear regression model and give it 100 people data and all these 100 people are blue eyed. Then give 101 person and ask it to predict the eye color. You already know the exact answer. It will be %100.

    I like to think
    (it has to be!)
    of a cybernetic ecology
    where we are free of our labors
    and joined back to nature,
    returned to our mammal
    brothers and sisters,
    and all watched over
    by machines of loving grace.

In a world re-calibrated to pure problem-solving, presumably we'd ask a mime or other non-digital artist for news on what our government is doing (instead of the Fake News Media), and then an interpretive dancer, not a lobbyist, would intermediate between government and industry? The trombone players would investigate financial crimes, the bassists would monitor our airspace, and the guy currently painting a mural on a wall would be responsible for DoorDashing a cargo ship's worth of food and supplies to a disaster zone (not the bad NGOs)?

Yeah, this is just a list of jobs you don't understand and/or make you feel sad.